WPAC: 01W - Post Tropical

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.6N
131.9E, APPROXIMATELY 870 NM SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES.
RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK AND
COMPACT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. THIS
DISTURBANCE LIES EQUATORWARD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA
OF MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE WESTWARD AND
POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT MARGINAL
DEVELOPMENT AS THE LLCC TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
BECAUSE THE LLCC IS WEAK AND UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS SUBOPTIMAL, THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[euro6208]

[mrbagyo]

Huge rain maker for sure in Mindanao

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 4.6N 131.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.5N 129.8E, APPROXIMATELY 710
NM SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. RECENT ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 070119Z METOP-A 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS SHOW
DISORGANIZED CONVECTIVE BANDING PULSATING NORTHWEST OF A WEAK AND
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), EVIDENT IN A 070121Z
25KM METOP-A ASCAT PASS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE 10-15
KNOT LLCC IS UNDER A RIDGE AXIS PROVIDING GOOD DIFFLUENCE OVERHEAD
WITH A POLEWARD TAP, AND LIGHT (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT MARGINAL DEVELOPMENT, IF ANY, AS THE LLCC
TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. BASED ON THE DISORGANIZED
STRUCTURE OF THIS SYSTEM, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[euro6208]

JMA

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA
AT 06.4N 129.6E SEA EAST OF MINDANAO MOVING WEST SLOWLY.

[euro6208]

EURO and GFS continues to show little to no development of this as it tracks over the Philippines and into the South China Sea.

[NotoSans]

Upgraded to TD 01W by JTWC. 18Z JMA weather map analysis has it as a 30-knot TD.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE)
WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 521 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH
FRAGMENTED BANDING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY WHICH HAS BEEN
STRUGGLING TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. A 071308Z
METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED AND ASYMMETRIC LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE PRESENCE OF 25 KNOT WINDS
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE ASCAT IMAGE IS THE BASIS FOR THE
INITIAL POSITION AND INITIAL INTENSITY, BOTH ASSESSED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE LAGGING BEHIND DUE THE LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. CURRENTLY TD 01W IS TRACKING WEST-
NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 01W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD GUIDED BY THE CURRENT
STEERING RIDGE. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE PHILIPPINES IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 AND WILL STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN
ORGANIZATION WHILE INTERACTING WITH LAND THROUGH TAU 36. BY TAU 48
TD 01W WILL ENTER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND EXPERIENCE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF INTENSIFICATION AS UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS IMPROVE. HOWEVER THE
PEAK INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH 30 KNOTS DURING THIS SHORT
WINDOW.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN ESTABLISHING PREDOMINANT EASTERLY FLOW.
DISSIPATION OVER WATER IS EXPECTED BY TAU 96. AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TRACK TRAJECTORY, BUT IS
LIMITED ON INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THERE IS A DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST TRACK RELYING HEAVILY ON THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS,
BUT DUE TO THE LACK OF OTHER DATA THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[1900hurricane]

Well, looks like it's time to set up my 2017 spreadsheets.

[1900hurricane]

Here's the ASCAT pass JTWC referenced when making the upgrade.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

[quote="1900hurricane"]Here's the ASCAT pass JTWC referenced when making the upgrade.


Looking @ the wind field on the ascat, thinking its a monsoon low.

[euro6208]

TPPN10 PGTW 080840

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE)

B. 08/0830Z

C. 9.76N

D. 125.85E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .35 WRAP YIELDS DT OF 2.0. MET
AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


HART

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE)
WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 01W (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 439 NM
EAST OF PUERTO PRINCESA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS WIDELY DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION LOOSELY
WRAPPING MOSTLY FROM THE NORTH INTO A WEAK AND ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND FROM A
COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM PAGASA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS
IS BASED ON AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T1.0 TO T1.5. UPPER
LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND MODERATE DIFFLUENCE. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW REFLECTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. GUIDED BY THE STR, TD 01W IS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL AND WILL
TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD, CROSSING THE VISAYAN ISLANDS BEFORE EXITING
INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48. LAND INTERACTION
WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN SLIGHTLY RECOVER
IN THE SULU SEA. AFTER TAU 48, TD 01W WILL MAKE ONE FINAL ISLAND
CROSSING THROUGH PALAWAN BEFORE DISSIPATING IN THE SCS DUE TO
INCREASED VWS AND COLD NORTHERLY SURGE. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT BUT DUE TO THE FORMATIVE NATURE OF
THE SYSTEM AND FRICTIONAL EFFECTS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE)
WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 373 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A STRUGGLING SYSTEM AS IT INTERACTS WITH
LAND FEATURES SHOWING WEAKENING CENTRAL CONVECTION AND FRAGMENTED
BANDING. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH A MODEST
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND PAGASA RADAR
IMAGERY WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 30
KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND
KNES. CURRENTLY TD 01W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 01W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD GUIDED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IN THE NEAR-
TERM LAND INTERACTION WILL DISRUPT THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW,
WEAKENING THE SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS OVER THE PHILIPPINES. BEYOND TAU
24 THE SYSTEM WILL RE-EMERGE OVER OPEN, AND RELATIVELY WARM, WATER
ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FURTHER CONSOLIDATION AND SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION. BEYOND TAU 48 HOWEVER, CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
DETERIORATE AS UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR WILL INCREASE AND A NORTHERN COLD
SURGE WILL BRING COOL DRY AIR INTO THE SYSTEM. TD 01W WILL FULLY
DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. OVERALL THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

WTPN31 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 10.4N 124.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 10.4N 124.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 10.1N 122.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 9.7N 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 10.3N 123.6E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 08 NM
NORTHEAST OF MACTAN, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z
IS 6 FEET.
//
NNNN

[euro6208]

NAVGEM, CMC, and EURO seeing some slight development as it nears Vietnam. Nothing too major.

[euro6208]

01W ONE 170110 0600 7.9N 120.4E WPAC 20 1006

[1900hurricane]

01W honestly might have a better chance at redevelopment than 97W does at any development.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

01W looks to be arcing up/refiring atm.


L 01W R W97

[euro6208]

Very strong convection.