SIO: 03S - Post-Tropical

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jaguarjace
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SIO: 03S - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby jaguarjace » Wed Jan 25, 2017 3:02 pm

90P INVEST 170124 1800 16.0S 128.9E SHEM 20 1003
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AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP

Tropical Low


Issued at 2:45 am AWST Thursday 26 January 2017.
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Last edited by jaguarjace on Sun Jan 29, 2017 3:48 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: SIO: INVEST 90P - Tropical Depression

#2 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Jan 26, 2017 12:28 pm

90P isn't looking too bad at the moment, especially considering that it is still over land and has been for quite some time now. However, the system is somewhat sprawling, which will hurt how strong the system can get in the limited amount of time it has over favorable waters. Water temps drop off sharply near the western end of Australia.

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Re: SIO: Tropical Low 03S

#3 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Jan 27, 2017 10:45 am

Here are the BoM and JTWC forecasts for 03S. They look rather agreeable to me.

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Re: SIO: INVEST 90P - Tropical Depression

#4 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Jan 27, 2017 10:54 am

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Digital-TC-Chaser

Re: SIO: INVEST 90P - Tropical Depression

#5 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Fri Jan 27, 2017 3:17 pm

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Digital-TC-Chaser

Re: SIO: INVEST 90P - Tropical Depression

#6 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Fri Jan 27, 2017 5:06 pm

Bom is very slow to name this as a TS. Maybe they are waiting on a ascat pass ? OR another 6hrs for winds to catchup. Conventional satellite estimates are roughly between 40/50kts.
http://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/wt/wtxs31.pgtw..txt

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... Table.html

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt03S.html

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... ensity.txt

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... 1703S.html

MEH maybe the Bom needs to look @ all the data and pull their finger out and name this before shear rips it apart.
0r perhaps they go back to reconnaissance flights.
http://p-3publications.com/PDF/CycloneHunters.pdf
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Re: SIO: INVEST 90P - Tropical Depression

#7 Postby Alyono » Sat Jan 28, 2017 12:25 am

BOM requires gales in 3 quadrants

BOM has this with 45 kt winds. However, gales are only in 2 quadrants, so according to their absurd definition of a TC, it is not a TC

A cyclone could have 100 kt winds. But if there are gales in only 2 quadrants due to a very rapid motion, it's not a TC
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Re: SIO: INVEST 90P - Tropical Depression

#8 Postby Alyono » Sat Jan 28, 2017 12:30 am

we should relabel the title to tropical low. It's not a TD as winds are 45 kts according to the BOM

As for it getting named, I do not expect it to. It's likely near its peak now as it is starting to move over cooler waters
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