SWIO: Post-Tropical Carlos

[1900hurricane]

Nice to see it made it to (MFR) Tropical Cyclone strength, making it the first of its kind in the Southern Hemisphere so far this season. However, it looks like it weakening has already begun. Structure is already beginning to take a hit from renewed adverse conditions.

[1900hurricane]

Back down to a Severe Tropical Storm again. Bulletin translated from French to English via Google.

WTIO31 FMEE 091244
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER OF THE REUNION
CYCLONIC ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING BULLETIN (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A BULLETIN NUMBER: 25/4/20162017
1.A STRONG STORM TROPICAL 4 (CARLOS)
2.A POSITION AT 1200 UTC ON 09/02/2017:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.6 S / 54.0 E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTHEAST 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5 / 4.5 / W 1.0 / 6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 HPA
5.A MAX WIND (MEDIUM / 10 NM): 60 KT
RANGE OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RVM): NONE
6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 200 N / A: 150 NO: 90
34 KT NE: 160 SE: 150 N / A: 70 NO: 60
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 N / A: 40 NO: 0
7.A COTE / DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE CLOSED: 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 10/02/2017 00 UTC: 26.3 S / 55.9 E, MAX WIND = 045 KT, TROPICAL STORM
MODERATE
24H: 10/02/2017 12 UTC: 28.1 S / 58.2 E, MAX WIND = 045 KT, POSTTROPICAL DEPRESSION

36H: 11/02/2017 00 UTC: 29.4 S / 61.3 E, MAX WIND = 045 KT, POSTTROPICAL DEPRESSION

48H: 11/02/2017 12 UTC: 30.2 S / 64.3 E, MAX WIND = 040 KT, POSTTROPICAL DEPRESSION

60H: 12/02/2017 00 UTC: 30.4 S / 64.5 E, MAX WIND = 040 KT, DEPRESSION
SUBTROPICALE
72H: 12/02/2017 12 UTC: 29.9 S / 63.8 E, MAX WIND = 045 KT, DEPRESSION
SUBTROPICALE
2.B FOLLOW-UP TRENDS:
96H: 13/02/2017 12 UTC: 30.0 S / 61.8 E, MAX WIND = 045 KT, DEPRESSION
SUBTROPICALE
120H: 14/02/2017 12 UTC: 30.9 S / 61.3 E, MAX WIND = 055 KT, DEPRESSION
SUBTROPICALE
2.C COMMENTS:
T = 3.5 + CI = 4.5-
LOSS OF ORGANIZATION NOTED JUST BEFORE 06Z CONTINUED THIS AFTERNOON
WITH NET SIGNS OF WESTERN SECTOR SHEARING. THE SSMI PASS
F15 DE 1137Z (RECEIVED JUST AFTER SENDING THE FIRST MESSAGES OF 12Z)
CONFIRMS THE DECOUPLING BETWEEN MIDDLE TROPO TRAFFIC
LOWER LAYERS. WHEREAS WEAKENING ON THE
CONFIGURATION CLOUD JUST BEFORE 06Z AND THAT THE INERTIA
WIND FIELDS IS LOWER IN RELATION TO THE METHOD
OF DVORAK FOR THESE SMALL-SIZED SYSTEMS, ESTIMATED INTENSITY IS
LOWER TO 60 KT.
THE SSMI PASS SUGGESTS THAT THE PRESENT ESTIMATED POSITION IS A FEW TO
THE WEST (BUT HOWEVER UNDER THE UNCERTAINTY MARGIN OF 30 MN
ANNOUNCED). WITH A DIRECTORY FLOW THAT WAS ABLE, THE SYSTEM IS
NEW ON A PATHWAY IN SOUTH-EAST GENERAL DIRECTION
THE INFLUENCE OF A MEDIUM TROPOSPHERE RIDGE IN THE NORTHEAST AND
THALWEG RAISING SINCE THE LATITUDES AVERAGE. FROM
SUNDAY, CARLOS SHOULD RETURN BLOCKED BY THE PASSAGE OF ONE
CELL ANTICYCLONIC TO THE SOUTH. THE MODEL AGREEMENT ON THIS
TRAJECTORY IS RIGHT GOOD. AT THE END OF PERIOD, AT THE TIME OF THE HALF-TOUR,
DISPERSION BECOMES MORE IMPORTANT.
TOMORROW, THE IMPORTANT RISE OF VERTICAL SHEAR AND
INTERACTION BAROCLINE WITH THE ALTITUDE TALWEG ARRIVING BY THE SUDOUEST,
SHOULD GIVE POST-TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS TO THE SYSTEM.
DURING THE WEEKEND, THE MODELS SHOW CARLOS UNDER THE
THALWEG OF ALTITUDE WHICH IS INSULATED IN CUT-OFF ABOVE THE
CIRCULATION, WHICH PROTECTS THE SHEAR SYSTEM. IN THIS
CONTEXT, CARLOS MAY TAKE A SUBTROPICAL STRUCTURE
FROM SUNDAY IN SE (RE) TROPICALIZING ON POTENTIAL WATERS
ENERGY HOWEVER LIMITED.

[1900hurricane]

[Steve820]

I thought it was nice how Carlos became the first "Tropical Cyclone" rated system in the SHem this year. Finally...lol. The SHem is so dead, and who knows why. Carlos will weaken from here on out, and the SWIO probably doesn't look like it will produce another TC for a while (idk...haven't checked models). The Australian region and South Pacific are now basins to watch for as there are currently a lot of invests throughout the two basins.