WPAC: Post Tropical Depression 98W

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WPAC: Post Tropical Depression 98W

#1 Postby cycloneye » Wed Feb 01, 2017 7:30 pm

98W INVEST 170202 0000 6.8N 136.9E WPAC 15

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#2 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Feb 01, 2017 8:09 pm

Heh, I was just wondering when this was going to be tagged.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#3 Postby euro6208 » Thu Feb 02, 2017 8:16 am

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.2N
135.6E, APPROXIMATELY 60 NM EAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PERIPHERIES. A 020041Z METOP-A 89GHZ IMAGE INDICATES
FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING DISPLACED OVER THE WEST QUADRANT
OF LLCC AND ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE LARGE SYSTEM WITH SOME
SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WEAKLY-DEFINED CENTER JUST EAST OF
PALAU. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM KOROR, PALAU REVEAL A SLP VALUE OF
1005MB WITH A 2.3MB 24-HOUR DECREASE IN SLP. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE, EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#4 Postby euro6208 » Thu Feb 02, 2017 8:20 am

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#5 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Feb 03, 2017 1:31 am

JTWC up to medium.

ABPW10 PGTW 030600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/030600Z-040600ZFEB2017//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.2N 135.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.4N 133.1E, APPROXIMATELY 105
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
AN AREA OF EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST.
A 030114Z METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A WEAKLY DEFINED LLCC WITH
ISOLATED, DISORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER THE WEST QUADRANT. A 030020Z
ASCAT PARTIAL IMAGE SHOWS A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT
NORTHEASTERLY SURGE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH 15 TO
20 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM
KOROR, PALAU REVEAL A SLP VALUE NEAR 1004MB WITH A 1.2MB 24-HOUR
DECREASE IN SLP. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE, EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY
STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SLOW
DEVELOPMENT, ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEAST SURGE EVENT, AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 98W

#6 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Feb 03, 2017 10:24 am

ASCAT from this morning showed a broad closed circulation west of Palau with strong winds on the north side aided by trade winds enhanced by monsoon northeasterlies. On the south side, winds remain very weak. It's not a great setup, but it is worth noting that 98W has developed a closed circulation, and this is further reenforced by microwave data.

Image

Image

One of 98W's biggest hinderances at the current moment is a belt of strong upper level easterlies shearing the system. The shear is helping to stoke some very intense convection (<90*C tops), but only on the downshear side of the circulation. This may be alleviated some as the system begins to move to the north parallel with The Philippines.

Image

Image

Conditions aren't great, but considering the current state of organization and a slight slackening of shear in 98W's path over the next couple of days, some weak development may continue to proceed, allowing the system to develop into a weak Tropical Storm.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 98W

#7 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Feb 03, 2017 10:26 am

It's also worth noting that JMA has already tagged 98W as a tropical depression, and is expecting to name the system in 24 hours or so. The next name on the list is "Mufia."

Image

TD
Issued at 13:10 UTC, 3 February 2017

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 3 February>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N7°35' (7.6°)
E131°35' (131.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 4 February>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N9°35' (9.6°)
E130°00' (130.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#8 Postby Alyono » Fri Feb 03, 2017 3:18 pm

ASCAT shows that there is no closed circulation
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 98W

#9 Postby euro6208 » Fri Feb 03, 2017 3:20 pm

TXPQ23 KNES 031501
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98W)

B. 03/1430Z

C. 7.3N

D. 131.8E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...SHEARED PATTERN WITH LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD LINES AND
A CENTER LESS THAN 75 NM FROM A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION YIELDS A DT
OF 1.5. MET=1.0 AND PT=1.5. FT IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS SINCE INITIAL
CLASSIFICATION OF A SYSTEM MUST EQUAL TO 1.0.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIM
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 98W

#10 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Feb 03, 2017 7:03 pm

Been somewhat of a tough day on the system so far. The weak and broad circulation may have opened back up. Shear remains brutal. It could be worse, but there is still much for this to do for it to be classified.

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 98W

#11 Postby euro6208 » Fri Feb 03, 2017 8:47 pm

TXPQ23 KNES 032058
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98W)

B. 03/2030Z

C. 10.0N

D. 130.7E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...LLCC WITH CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES THAT IS LESS THAN
1.25 DEG FROM A SMALL COLD OVERCAST RESULTING IN A DT OF 1.5. MET AND
PT ARE BOTH 1.5. SHEAR PATTERN WAS APPLIED TO THIS FIX. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SZATANEK
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 98W

#12 Postby euro6208 » Fri Feb 03, 2017 8:51 pm

Interesting discussion from NWS.

A strong ridge of high pressure moving eastward across southern
Japan will prevent a tropical disturbance west-northwest of Koror at
8N132E to lift northward thru tonight. Strong low-level winds
associated with a shear line have been converging against the
northern periphery of the disturbance, triggering deep convection
northwest of Koror. Modest converging winds east of this disturbance
should maintain isolated thunderstorms near Koror and Yap instead.
Once this disturbance has lifted northward and become better
organized, a convergent tail of south winds related to this
disturbance draping over Koror and Yap might prolong showers and
thunderstorms thru midweek. ASCAT satellite imagery shows the strong
winds associated with the shear line are still just north of
disturbance center. If these strong winds manage to spiral into the
disturbance center, this could help the disturbance to further
develop.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 98W

#13 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sat Feb 04, 2017 12:54 am

Image
Image
Dont like its chances myself.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 98W

#14 Postby euro6208 » Sat Feb 04, 2017 7:25 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.2N 135.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.6N 131.1E, APPROXIMATELY 730
NM SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 040140Z MHS METOP-A 89GHZ PARTIAL MICROWAVE
PASS DEPICT DEEP PERSISTENT CONVECTION DISPLACED WEST TO NORTH OF AN
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A MOST RECENT SCAT PASS REVEALS
25-30 KNOT COLD SURGE WINDS NORTHWEST OF AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER AND 10-15 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH THE LLC AT THE CUSP OF MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30
KNOT) EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT DIFFLUENT
OUTFLOW ALOFT. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE NORTHEAST SURGE EVENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. BASED ON THE
MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ANALYZED, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 98W

#15 Postby euro6208 » Sat Feb 04, 2017 7:25 am

TXPQ23 KNES 040910
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98W)

B. 04/0830Z

C. 7.7N

D. 130.4E

E. FIVE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...DT=1.0 BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN DEFINED BY SPIRAL CLOUD LINES,
PROXIMITY MORE THAN 1.25 DG FROM OVERCAST, SMALL SIZE. PT=1.0. MET=1.0.
FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SCHWARTZ
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 98W

#16 Postby Steve820 » Sat Feb 04, 2017 5:47 pm

I think this has some potential to be Muifa, but it will only be a weakling.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 98W

#17 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sat Feb 04, 2017 8:22 pm

TXPQ23 KNES 041502
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98W)

B. 04/1430Z

C. 7.8N

D. 129.5E

E. FIVE/HIMAWARI-8

F. TOO WEAK

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY DUE TO A LACK OF DEEP
CONVECTION AND LLCC.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...FISHER

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 98W

#18 Postby 1900hurricane » Sat Feb 04, 2017 10:23 pm

ASCAT once again shows a very broad circulation.

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 98W

#19 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Feb 05, 2017 12:49 am

Visible imagery shows lots of small vorts within the overall circulation.

Image
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 98W

#20 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sun Feb 05, 2017 1:47 am

monsoonal grye
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