SPAC: BART - Post-Tropical

[jaguarjace]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 202353 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15F CENTRE [1002HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2S
166.2W AT 202100 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 VIS IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD15F MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT
20 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED
AT ABOUT 25 KNOTS.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT OVER SUPPOSED LLCC. ORGANISATION
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE. TD15F LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE REGION IN A LOW
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 500HPA.
OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE NORTH AND EAST BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. SST
AROUND 29 DEGREE CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON CURVED BAND
PATTERN YIELDS DT=2.0, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT. THUS
YIELDING, T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT EAST-SOUTHEAST
WITH GRADUALL INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 210900 UTC 22.4S 162.2W MOV SE AT 18 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 212100 UTC 24.7S 159.2W MOV ESE AT 20 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 220900 UTC 26.9S 155.9W MOV ESE AT 27 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 222100 UTC 28.9S 151.6W MOV ESE AT 27 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 210200 UTC.

[jaguarjace]

GALE WARNING 062 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 211253 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE BART CENTRE 994HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6
SOUTH 162.3 WEST AT 211200 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 22.6S 162.3W AT 211200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 19 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE
WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NORTHWEST
QUADRANT
WITHIN 060 NAUTICAL MILES IN SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 24.9S 159.1W AT 220000 UTC
AND NEAR 27.3S 155.8W AT 221200 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE
NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC
AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 060.

[Steve820]

The JTWC has issued their final advisory on Bart. We got a named SPac storm, FINALLY!!! ...even if it was only weak...

I predict that the basin should possibly get increased activity during the next month before simmering down. This may or may not end up tying or breaking the record for least active SPac season - we will just have to wait and see.