Feb 211411 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14F CENTRE [998HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9S 178.2W
AT 211200 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 IR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD14F MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 19 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25
KNOTS.
DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN PAST
24 HOURS. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER
RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT.
CYCLONE CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON
0.30 WRAP YEILDS DT=2.0. MET=2.0 AND PT=1.5.FT BASED ON DT. THUS,
YEILDING T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 220000 UTC 21.4S 173.2W MOV ESE AT 25KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 221200 UTC 24.4S 168.0W MOV ESE AT 25KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 230000 UTC 27.3S 164.0W MOV SE AT 25KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 212000 UTC.
