SWIO: Tropical Depression 7

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Original source: http://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/wt/wtio20.fmee..txt, recovered at: 2017-03-06 1845Z

WTIO20 FMEE 061816
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 06/03/2017
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 001/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 06/03/2017 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 7 1004 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.1 S / 76.1 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 80MN RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
250NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTOR.
CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 25KT WITH ROUGH SEAS. STRONG GUSTS UNDER
SQUALLS.
FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2017/03/07 AT 06 UTC:
15.8 S / 74.4 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2017/03/07 AT 18 UTC:
16.1 S / 72.7 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
NIL.=

[wxman57]

Tropical Depression 7 now, officially. However, satellite indicates it may now be a TS. Waiting for ASCAT pass to confirm.

ZCZC 639
WTIO30 FMEE 071247
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/7/20162017
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7
2.A POSITION 2017/03/07 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.9 S / 72.5 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL
FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :46 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: SE: 220 SW: 150 NW:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2017/03/08 00 UTC: 15.7 S / 70.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2017/03/08 12 UTC: 15.5 S / 69.6 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2017/03/09 00 UTC: 15.5 S / 68.4 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2017/03/09 12 UTC: 15.7 S / 67.7 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2017/03/10 00 UTC: 16.2 S / 67.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2017/03/10 12 UTC: 17.6 S / 66.2 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2017/03/11 12 UTC: 20.9 S / 62.0 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
120H: 2017/03/12 12 UTC: 23.6 S / 54.7 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE "MIDGET" PATTERN SEEM TO CONFIRM WITH A
SMALL AND CONCENTRATED CONVECTIVE CORE. A FEW CONVECTIVE BANDS
WRAPPED TEMPORARILY AROUND THE CENTER BUT DID NOT MAINTAINED. 0757Z
AMSR2 SWATH SHOW A NICE LOW LEVEL ORGANISATION BUT 0947Z SSMI DATA DO
NOT CONFIRM THIS STRUCTURE IMPROVEMENT.
THE LOW IS MOVING WESTWARDS STEERED BY THE LOW/MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE LOCATED ON THE SOUTH-EASTERN PART OF THE BASIN. TOMORROW, THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE AXED
BETWEEN IT AND ENAWO. FROM FRIDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO
ACCELERATE WHILE DIVING SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE WAKE OF ENAWO'S RESIDUAL
CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION. DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THIS TURN ARE THE
MAIN CAUSE OF THE MODERATE GUIDANCE DISPERSION.
ON THIS TRACK, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY
CONDUCIVE BEFORE BECOMING UNFAVOURABLE FROM THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL
SUPPLY IS VERY EFFICIENT POLEWARD BUT REMAINS VERY WEAK EQUATORWARD.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED UNDER THE NARROW
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND CURRENTLY BENEFITS FROM A GOOD DIVERGENCE. FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT, THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER-TROUGH FROM THE MID-LATITUDES
(ROSSBY WAVE BREAKING) IS PRODUCING A NORTHERLY MODERATE SHEAR OVER
THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, THE POLEWARD DIVERGENCE AND THE MOTION OF THE
SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW THE WEAKENING. AT THE END OF THE TAUS, WITH THE
DISSIPATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH, CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE AGAIN DESPITE THE COOLER SEA SURFACE.=

[wxman57]

A 1732Z ASCAT pass caught some 35kt winds in the southern part of the storm. They've initiated advisories as TC 11. However, the official RSMC (Reunion Island) still has the system as a depression with 30kt winds as of 18Z. They identify it as Tropical Depression 7, which is the official designation. I suspect it will be upgraded to TC Fernando on their next advisory.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

11S ELEVEN 170308 1800 15.2S 70.1E SHEM 35 1003

REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 69.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 506 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (IR)
AND A 081732Z AMSU 89 GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY. THE PREVIOUSLY FRAGMENTED CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED AND
CONSOLIDATED NEAR THE LLCC OVER THE LAST 6 TO 12 HOURS. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS SUPPORTED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 081732Z ASCAT
PASS SHOWING THE TIGHT LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWING 35 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC, AND DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM OF T2.5-3.0 FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH A SMALL BUT DEVELOPING POINT SOURCE DIRECTLY OVER
THE SYSTEM, ACCOMPANIED BY LOW-MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). SSTS ALSO SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION WITH TEMPS
OBSERVED NEAR 30C. SINCE THE SYSTEM REMAINS RELATIVELY SHALLOW AT
THIS TIME, THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE IS THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE SOUTH, STEERING TC 11S SOUTH OF DUE WEST FOR THE TIME
BEING. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM THE REMNANTS OF TC 09S ARE CURRENTLY
PROVIDING SOME PRESSURE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM,
DISPLACING THE DEEPEST CONVECTION SLIGHTLY OFF THE LLCC, AND
LIMITING POTENTIAL INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR-TERM. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO UNDERGO SLOW INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 24. AS UPPER-
LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS REESTABLISHED BEYOND TAU 24, THE SYSTEM
WILL INTENSIFY AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER RATE, REACHING PEAK INTENSITY AT
TAU 120 AS THE SYSTEM WILL TAP INTO A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TC11S WILL
TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH, THEN TURN SHARPLY SOUTHWEST AS IT
STRENGTHENS AND THE STEERING SHIFTS TO A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE
TO THE EAST. TC 11S IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN FOREWORD MOTION AFTER
TAU 36 DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE SYSTEM TO THE EAST.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE TRACK, WITH SOME INITIAL DISAGREEMENT OF
THE TIMING OF THE TURN SOUTH. THE CURRENT FORECAST LIES NEAR THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK, LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE IS 14 FEET. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
090900Z AND 092100Z

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

11S ELEVEN 170309 0000 15.5S 69.7E SHEM 40 993


Sheared system, and still intensifying cyan brightness looks healthy atm.



ukmet rebuilds the ridge its the outliner.

[Steve820]

This should become Fernando soon and follow a track out to sea, sparing Reunion and Mauritius. It might be powerful, and a strong fishspinner is my favorite type of storm unlike powerful storms that strike land (I'm looking at you Ewano). Glad to see the SWIO getting more activity. But, the other SHem basins are still quite dead.

[Alyono]

This should become Fernando soon and follow a track out to sea, sparing Reunion and Mauritius. It might be powerful, and a strong fishspinner is my favorite type of storm unlike powerful storms that strike land (I'm looking at you Ewano). Glad to see the SWIO getting more activity. But, the other SHem basins are still quite dead.

going to pass close to Rodrigues, which has a population of 42,000

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

TXXS23 KNES 090605
TCSSIO

A. 11S (NONAME)

B. 09/0530Z

C. 14.6S

D. 68.5E

E. THREE/MET-8

F. T2.0/3.0/W0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSU

H. REMARKS...LLCC MOVING AWAY FROM MAIN DEEP CONVECTION. SHEARED
SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED BY CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES AND A CENTER
LOCATED UNDER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE COLD OVERCAST LARGER THAN 1.5
DEGREES. DT=2.0 MET=2.5 PT=2.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

0645Z

WTIO30 FMEE 090647 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/7/20162017
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7

2.A POSITION 2017/03/09 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.8 S / 68.8 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY EIGHT DECIMAL
EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : NORTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 200 SW: 190 NW: 0




7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2017/03/09 18 UTC: 15.8 S / 68.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2017/03/10 06 UTC: 17.1 S / 67.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2017/03/10 18 UTC: 19.3 S / 66.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2017/03/11 06 UTC: 20.9 S / 64.3 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2017/03/11 18 UTC: 22.1 S / 61.5 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
72H: 2017/03/12 06 UTC: 23.2 S / 58.5 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2017/03/13 06 UTC: 25.2 S / 54.1 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2017/03/14 06 UTC: 28.4 S / 52.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5 CI=2.5

LATEST AVAILABLE IMAGERY IR AND VISIBLE STILL SHOW THAT THE MAIN
CONVECTION IS LOCATED TO EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER, WHICH MOVES
NORTHWESTWARDS. THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS MORE OR LESS THE SAME
THAN 6 HOURS AGO.

THE POOR VERTICAL EXTENSION OF THE SYSTEM JUSTIFY CURRENTLY TRACKING
WESTWARDS STEERED BY THE LOW/MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED ON
THE SOUTH-EASTERN PART OF THE BASIN. NOW, THE LOW LEVEL CENTER MOVES
NORTHWESTWARDS SLOWLY. NEXT, AN UPPER TO MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO GET CLOSER TO THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH AND THEN THE WEST WITH AN
EFFECT ON INTENSITY AND TRACK TEMPORARILY SOUTHWARDS TURN. SATURDAY,
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFT AWAY AND WEAKEN, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BEND TOWARDS THE WEST OVER THE NORTH-WESTERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AFTER THAT, THERE IS TWO OPTIONS: THE SYSTEM MAY
CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE RIM OF THE RIDGE AND TAKE A PARABOLIC
TRACK, EVACUATING TOWARDS THE MID-LAT BETWEEN 50E AND 60E AFTER
PASSING SOUTH OF THE MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS, OR THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
IS STRONG ENOUGH AND BUILD BACK RAPIDLY AFTER THE EXIT FROM THE
TROPICAL DOMAIN OF EX-ENAWO AND THE SYSTEM TAKES A MORE
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS OR WESTWARDS TRACK WITH A MUCH DELAYED
RECURVATURE TOWARDS THE MID-LAT , BRINGING THE SYSTEM VERY CLOSE OR
OVER SOME OF THE MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS SUNDAY OR EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
THEN POTENTIALLY EVEN OVER SOUTH-EAST MADAGASCAR LATER ON. CURRENTLY,
THE MOST LIKELY TRACK IS STILL THE FIRST OPTION.

THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM MAKES IT PARTICULARLY SENSITIVE TO ITS
ENVIRONMENT, ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER LEVELS. THIS MAKES THE INTENSITY
FORECAST QUITE UNCERTAIN. FROM THIS EVENING, DESPITE THE VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR, THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER TROUGH STRENGTHENS TEMPORALY THE
INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. NEXT, ACCORDING TO THE LAST MODEL
DATA, THE RELATIVELY QUICK MOTION OF THE SYSTEM MAY ALLOW IT TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY, WITH NO CLEAR BAROCLINIC INFLUENCE FROM THE
UPPER TROUGH.=

[1900hurricane]

The organization is still poor, but it is firing off some deep convection right now.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Currently in a weak steering environment. Looks a tiny llcc,lots of low level clouds.When the shear ease's off Tropical Depression 7 likely will come together. at pace. Now i have
said that TD7 prob's will do nothing.due to a ul pv streamer to the wsw


Appears to have just captured the part of the eastern side with 45kt gales i think?

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

WTXS31 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 16.6S 69.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 69.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 19.2S 68.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 21.0S 65.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 22.2S 62.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 23.3S 59.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 25.8S 55.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 28.2S 54.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 31.0S 51.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 17.3S 69.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 715 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A SYSTEM WITH A WEAK AND RAGGED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) THAT IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND SHEARED FROM THE MAIN
CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE AS THE LLC HAS BECOME ELONGATED AND OBSCURED. THIS IS
CONFIRMED BY A 100421 ASCAT PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.0 TO T2.5 AND SUPPORTED BY
THE ASCAT PASS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR; HOWEVER, A DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNEL
IS PROVIDING GOOD VENTILATION TO THE SHEARED CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE
IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS VWS
RELAXES, PEAKING AT 60 KNOTS NEAR TAU 96 BEFORE VWS INCREASES AND SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASE. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE POLEWARD MOTION, HOWEVER THERE ARE
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE LATERAL SPEED. IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE
IS AN OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 102100Z AND 110900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (ENAWO)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[Steve820]

This should become Fernando soon and follow a track out to sea, sparing Reunion and Mauritius. It might be powerful, and a strong fishspinner is my favorite type of storm unlike powerful storms that strike land (I'm looking at you Ewano). Glad to see the SWIO getting more activity. But, the other SHem basins are still quite dead.

going to pass close to Rodrigues, which has a population of 42,000

Did see that island on the forecast track map that day but didn't think it was that populous. This still never got named...what a bust. Wiki page and TropicalTidbits still says it's active so it could still have a slight chance at being named (but much less likely).

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

dissipated