SPAC: DEBBIE - Post-Tropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
Digital-TC-Chaser

Re: SPAC: DEBBIE - Tropical Cyclone

#61 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Mon Mar 27, 2017 5:48 pm

0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 28166
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: SPAC: DEBBIE - Tropical Cyclone

#62 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Mar 27, 2017 6:27 pm

The last storm of this intensity to make landfall in Australia was Yasi?

I know a lot of reporters from Aussie stations are covering it up there. They haven't had much chance in this era either.
0 likes   

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6960
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: SPAC: DEBBIE - Tropical Cyclone

#63 Postby Alyono » Mon Mar 27, 2017 6:37 pm

Marcia was MUCH stronger 2 years ago
0 likes   

NotoSans
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1036
Age: 20
Joined: Sun Sep 27, 2015 1:15 am
Location: Hong Kong
Contact:

Re: SPAC: DEBBIE - Tropical Cyclone

#64 Postby NotoSans » Mon Mar 27, 2017 6:52 pm

Surface observations seem to suggest that BOM's intensity estimate is quite reasonable.
Last edited by NotoSans on Mon Mar 27, 2017 6:55 pm, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the RSMC and NWS products.

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 28166
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: SPAC: DEBBIE - Tropical Cyclone

#65 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Mar 27, 2017 6:53 pm

Wind report (10-min sustained) of 103 kt on Hamilton Island, gusting to 125 kt.

That supports an intensity of at least 115 kt (1-min) - category 4 on the SSHWS as well.
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 28166
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: SPAC: DEBBIE - Tropical Cyclone

#66 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Mar 27, 2017 6:54 pm

NotoSans wrote:Surface observations seem to suggest that BOM's intensity estimate is quite reasonable.


I agree, high end of cat 4 on their scale, while 115 kt seems the best estimate on 1-min winds given the data from Hamilton Island.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 119012
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: SPAC: DEBBIE - Tropical Cyclone

#67 Postby cycloneye » Mon Mar 27, 2017 7:09 pm

0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5576
Age: 29
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: College Station, TX
Contact:

Re: SPAC: DEBBIE - Tropical Cyclone

#68 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Mar 27, 2017 7:47 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:If the K-Z-C wind relationship is used on a central pressure of 950mb, what intensity does it come out to given its size and latitude?

Using the 950 mb central pressure and the 18Z data from the ATCF b-decks (latitude of 19.9S, forward speed of 4 kt, average tropical storm force radius of 160 nm, and outermost closed isobar of 1005 mb), KZC outputs 100 kt 1 minute sustained/88 kt 10 minute sustained. However, if the 103 kt from Hamilton Island (59 m elevation) is representative of maximum intensity, KZC spits out a 935 mb pressure.
0 likes   
Wayward meteorology student on a journey back to the promised land.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 119012
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: SPAC: DEBBIE - Tropical Cyclone

#69 Postby cycloneye » Mon Mar 27, 2017 7:55 pm

0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

NotoSans
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1036
Age: 20
Joined: Sun Sep 27, 2015 1:15 am
Location: Hong Kong
Contact:

Re: SPAC: DEBBIE - Tropical Cyclone

#70 Postby NotoSans » Mon Mar 27, 2017 8:06 pm

BOM up to 100 kt (10-min sustained winds), which corresponds to a low-end cat 4 on the SSHWS scale. JTWC went with 105 kt at 00Z.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the RSMC and NWS products.

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 28166
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: SPAC: DEBBIE - Tropical Cyclone

#71 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Mar 27, 2017 8:51 pm

NotoSans wrote:BOM up to 100 kt (10-min sustained winds), which corresponds to a low-end cat 4 on the SSHWS scale. JTWC went with 105 kt at 00Z.


I just realized the Hamilton Island station is elevated at 59 m. So the 105 kt intensity seems reasonable in that case, maybe 110 kt.
0 likes   

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 17127
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: SPAC: DEBBIE - Tropical Cyclone

#72 Postby euro6208 » Mon Mar 27, 2017 9:21 pm

Image
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 28166
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: SPAC: DEBBIE - Tropical Cyclone

#73 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Mar 27, 2017 10:07 pm

Based on storm chaser reports so far, I would estimate the landfall pressure to be 954mb.
0 likes   

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6960
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: SPAC: DEBBIE - Tropical Cyclone

#74 Postby Alyono » Mon Mar 27, 2017 11:01 pm

looks like Bowen radar has been wiped out
0 likes   

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 17127
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: SPAC: DEBBIE - Tropical Cyclone

#75 Postby euro6208 » Tue Mar 28, 2017 2:29 am

Back end of Debbie lashing Airlie beach.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

Digital-TC-Chaser

Re: SPAC: DEBBIE - Post-Tropical

#76 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sun Apr 02, 2017 6:39 am

0 likes   


Return to “2017”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest