SPAC: DEBBIE - Post-Tropical
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CrazyC83
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Re: SPAC: DEBBIE - Tropical Cyclone
The last storm of this intensity to make landfall in Australia was Yasi?
I know a lot of reporters from Aussie stations are covering it up there. They haven't had much chance in this era either.
I know a lot of reporters from Aussie stations are covering it up there. They haven't had much chance in this era either.
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NotoSans
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Re: SPAC: DEBBIE - Tropical Cyclone
Surface observations seem to suggest that BOM's intensity estimate is quite reasonable.
Last edited by NotoSans on Mon Mar 27, 2017 6:55 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC and NWS products.
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CrazyC83
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Re: SPAC: DEBBIE - Tropical Cyclone
Wind report (10-min sustained) of 103 kt on Hamilton Island, gusting to 125 kt.
That supports an intensity of at least 115 kt (1-min) - category 4 on the SSHWS as well.
That supports an intensity of at least 115 kt (1-min) - category 4 on the SSHWS as well.
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CrazyC83
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Re: SPAC: DEBBIE - Tropical Cyclone
NotoSans wrote:Surface observations seem to suggest that BOM's intensity estimate is quite reasonable.
I agree, high end of cat 4 on their scale, while 115 kt seems the best estimate on 1-min winds given the data from Hamilton Island.
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cycloneye
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Re: SPAC: DEBBIE - Tropical Cyclone
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1900hurricane
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Re: SPAC: DEBBIE - Tropical Cyclone
CrazyC83 wrote:If the K-Z-C wind relationship is used on a central pressure of 950mb, what intensity does it come out to given its size and latitude?
Using the 950 mb central pressure and the 18Z data from the ATCF b-decks (latitude of 19.9S, forward speed of 4 kt, average tropical storm force radius of 160 nm, and outermost closed isobar of 1005 mb), KZC outputs 100 kt 1 minute sustained/88 kt 10 minute sustained. However, if the 103 kt from Hamilton Island (59 m elevation) is representative of maximum intensity, KZC spits out a 935 mb pressure.
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cycloneye
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Re: SPAC: DEBBIE - Tropical Cyclone
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NotoSans
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Re: SPAC: DEBBIE - Tropical Cyclone
BOM up to 100 kt (10-min sustained winds), which corresponds to a low-end cat 4 on the SSHWS scale. JTWC went with 105 kt at 00Z.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC and NWS products.
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CrazyC83
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Re: SPAC: DEBBIE - Tropical Cyclone
NotoSans wrote:BOM up to 100 kt (10-min sustained winds), which corresponds to a low-end cat 4 on the SSHWS scale. JTWC went with 105 kt at 00Z.
I just realized the Hamilton Island station is elevated at 59 m. So the 105 kt intensity seems reasonable in that case, maybe 110 kt.
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Re: SPAC: DEBBIE - Tropical Cyclone
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
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CrazyC83
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Re: SPAC: DEBBIE - Tropical Cyclone
Based on storm chaser reports so far, I would estimate the landfall pressure to be 954mb.
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Re: SPAC: DEBBIE - Tropical Cyclone
Back end of Debbie lashing Airlie beach.
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
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Digital-TC-Chaser
Re: SPAC: DEBBIE - Post-Tropical
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0vqg1h ... e=youtu.be
Chase footage .
Chase footage .
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