SPAC: DEBBIE - Post-Tropical

[Alyono]

at least 120 kts at landfall. Possibly over 145 kts. Conditions are that favorable

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/845685305709641729

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/845700808356319232

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Dry air intrusion is hampering development during the stall.

[Alyono]

gradually developing, though slower than I thought

That said, this reminds me of a WPAC system. Once that core forms, rapid or explosive intensification is likely.

Also, massive surge threat due to the very large size of this

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

WTPS31 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (DEBBIE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (DEBBIE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLYREMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 18.4S 151.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (DEBBIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
FLARING DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. A 260545Z SSMIS 37
GHZ IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING, A LARGE
MICROWAVE EYE, AND SUPPORTS THE CURRENT JTWC BEST TRACK POSITION
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS IS SUPPORTED
BY MULTI-AGENCY DVORAKS OF T3.5 (55 TO 70 KNOTS) LATEST SATCON
ESTIMATES AROUND 65 KNOTS, AND THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A VERY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, RECENT TPW IMAGERY SHOWS SOME DRY CONTINENTAL
AIR BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM, WHICH HAS SLOWED THE
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. TC DEBBIE HAS BEEN TRACKING
SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD BETWEEN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NER AND A
STR TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN UNDER THE SHARED
STEERING INFLUENCE OF BOTH FEATURES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD,
WHICH WILL MAINTAIN ITS SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY. FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL TC 13P MAKES LANDFALL
SHORTLY AFTER TAU 36, ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF STEADY
INTENSIFICATION. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS INLAND, THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS
OF RUGGED TERRAIN WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE CYCLONE LEADING TO COMPLETE
DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE HAVE CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE ON THE FORECAST TRACK LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z AND 270900Z.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/EarthUncutTV/status/845944502581784576

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/ExtremeStorms/status/845990641045835778

[Yellow Evan]

Ow eye in LG, would be T5.0, but probably lower given irregular eye shape.

[Alyono]

has a closed eyewall on microwave now, though the eye is large. May be 80-85 kts now. Not sure why BOM lowered the winds

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

JT has lowered peak as well.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/ExtremeStorms/status/846171720398581761

[Alyono]

steadily intensifying now. Eye starting to clear out. Eye well formed on radar

Not sure why JT has this weakening before landfall. It clearly won't do that

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/846181130483253248

[Alyono]

eye is becoming better defined now

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Still has quite a few hours to go before a landfall tomorrow morning.
May start wrapping tighter as the cloud start backing up on the ranges.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

100kts atm ? @Alyono

[Alyono]

100kts atm ? @Alyono

thinking 85-90 at the present time. Looks to be a T 5.0. Of course, I had it at 80 kts at 3Z, so this is intensifying rapidly now

[Alyono]

good news is, this is not going to landfall in Townsville. Thus, we shouldn't be looking at something as bad as thought 48 hours ago

[Yellow Evan]

After struggling earlier, seems to be rapidly strengthening. Nearing major hurricane intensity, and could be as high as 115-125 knots prior to landfall.