SPAC: DEBBIE - Post-Tropical

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Re: SPAC: DEBBIE - Tropical Cyclone

#41 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Mar 27, 2017 12:33 am

Alyono wrote:
Digital-TC-Chaser wrote:100kts atm ? @Alyono


thinking 85-90 at the present time. Looks to be a T 5.0. Of course, I had it at 80 kts at 3Z, so this is intensifying rapidly now


Agreed. T5.0, but the kind of system Dvorak can overestimate, so 85 is reasonable.
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Re: SPAC: DEBBIE - Tropical Cyclone

#42 Postby Alyono » Mon Mar 27, 2017 12:38 am

Yellow Evan wrote:
Alyono wrote:
Digital-TC-Chaser wrote:100kts atm ? @Alyono


thinking 85-90 at the present time. Looks to be a T 5.0. Of course, I had it at 80 kts at 3Z, so this is intensifying rapidly now


Agreed. T5.0, but the kind of system Dvorak can overestimate, so 85 is reasonable.


Dvorak can also underestimate these large, clear eyes. Was 1 full T number too low for Wilma when it made US landfall
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Re: SPAC: DEBBIE - Tropical Cyclone

#43 Postby Alyono » Mon Mar 27, 2017 1:41 am

eye and eyewall are now very well defined on radar. This is intensifying very rapidly now
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Re: SPAC: DEBBIE - Tropical Cyclone

#44 Postby Alyono » Mon Mar 27, 2017 1:42 am

third outflow channel has developed. Only land can stop this now
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Re: SPAC: DEBBIE - Tropical Cyclone

#45 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Mon Mar 27, 2017 4:10 am

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0716 UTC 27/03/2017
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie
Identifier: 24U
Data At: 0700 UTC
Latitude: 19.5S
Longitude: 150.1E
Location Accuracy: within 15 nm [30 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [220 deg]
Speed of Movement: 3 knots [6 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 85 knots [155 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 120 knots [220 km/h]
Central Pressure: 952 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 110 nm [205 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 140 nm [260 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 140 nm [260 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 110 nm [205 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 35 nm [65 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.0/5.0/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 27/1300: 19.7S 149.6E: 025 [050]: 090 [170]: 951
+12: 27/1900: 20.0S 148.9E: 040 [070]: 095 [175]: 950
+18: 28/0100: 20.2S 148.2E: 050 [095]: 085 [155]: 962
+24: 28/0700: 20.4S 147.5E: 065 [120]: 055 [100]: 985
+36: 28/1900: 21.0S 146.1E: 085 [155]: 035 [065]: 998
+48: 29/0700: 21.9S 145.5E: 105 [190]: 030 [055]: 1000
+60: 29/1900: 22.9S 146.2E: 125 [230]: 030 [055]: 1001
+72: 30/0700: 23.9S 148.4E: 140 [265]: 025 [050]: 1003
+96: 31/0700: 25.7S 152.9E: 185 [345]: 025 [045]: 1003
+120: 01/0700: 27.8S 156.3E: 275 [505]: 025 [045]: 1001
REMARKS:
Tropical cyclone Debbie has shown rapid development through today. Deep
convection rapidly developed around the system centre this morning, with a clear
eye developing during the day. The latest Dvorak analysis was therefore based on
an eye pattern in IR, with a LG surround and OW eye, with +0.5 for eye
adjustment DT of 5.5. MET and PT are 5.0. FT was based on DT but constrained to
5.0 due to Dvorak rules. SATCON has jumped dramatically during the day to about
90 knots. ADT from both agencies are around 5.5. Forecast system to become
category 4 in the next 6 hours.

Confidence in the centre position is rated as good based on a combination of
radar imagery from Willis Island and Bowen radars and animated visible satellite
imagery.

The mid-level ridge building to the south of the system has become the primary
steering influence. However, animated WV imagery suggests that the shortwave
trough moving north into SE Queensland may have a little more amplitude than the
models are suggesting, leading to a slight weakening of the ridge and a slightly
more southerly track which has been evident over the past 12 hours. There may
also be some influence from internal processes within the cyclone core, where it
remains somewhat disorganised. Overall, the system is most likely to remain on a
general west-southwest track for the next 24 hours up to landfall on the
Queensland coast. There is still reasonably high confidence in this track,
although there is more uncertainty on the southern side.

The system remains located in an area of weak vertical wind shear over sea
surface temperatures of 29 to 30 degrees Celsius. Conditions will remain
favourable for development right up until landfall, and this has been reflected
in an intensity forecast at a standard rate following the recent period of rapid
intensification.
Image
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==




radar.
http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/ ... wen512.gif


http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/tropics/radar/

WTPS31 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (DEBBIE) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/ ---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 19.6S 150.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P (DEBBIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL ATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY ORGANIZING SYSTEM WITH A RESURGENCE IN
DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER, THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A 16 NM
RAGGED EYE, AND SUPPORTS THE CURRENT JTWC BEST TRACK POSITION WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS SUPPORTED BY
AGENCY DVORAKS OF T5.0 AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AROUND 90
KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH IMPROVED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ENTRAINMENT, RADIAL
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29C) SSTS.
TC DEBBIE HAS BEEN TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD BETWEEN THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A NER AND A STR TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE SHARED STEERING INFLUENCE OF BOTH FEATURES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD, MAINTAINING A PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHWESTWARD
TRAJECTORY. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL TC
DEBBIE MAKES LANDFALL, BETWEEN TAU 12 AND 24, ALLOWING FOR STEADY TO
RAPID INTENSIFICATION. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS INLAND, THE FRICTIONAL
EFFECTS OF RUGGED TERRAIN WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE CYCLONE LEADING TO
ITS COMPLETE DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE ARE IN
GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 272100Z AND 280900Z.//



Image
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Re: SPAC: DEBBIE - Tropical Cyclone

#46 Postby euro6208 » Mon Mar 27, 2017 4:36 am

Image
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Re: SPAC: DEBBIE - Tropical Cyclone

#47 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Mon Mar 27, 2017 4:51 am

ADT showing 943.5 mb. And falling!
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Re: SPAC: DEBBIE -Severe Tropical Cyclone

#48 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Mon Mar 27, 2017 5:07 am

bom upgraded to aussie Cat4
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the coastal and adjacent inland areas between Bowen and Sarina, including the Whitsunday Islands, are requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the following warning

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 27
Issued at 7:59 pm EST on Monday 27 March 2017
Headline:
Severe tropical cyclone Debbie has intensified to category 4.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Cardwell to St Lawrence, including Townsville, Mackay, and the Whitsunday Islands, extending inland to Charters Towers and Mount Coolon..

Watch Zone
Areas further inland including Pentland and Moranbah..

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie at 8:00 pm AEST:
Intensity: Category 4, sustained winds near the centre of 165 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 250 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 30 kilometres of 19.5 degrees South 149.8 degrees East, estimated to be 170 kilometres east northeast of Bowen and 195 kilometres north northeast of Mackay.

Movement: west southwest at 9 kilometres per hour.

Severe tropical cyclone Debbie has strengthened into a category 4 system. It may intensify further as it continues to move west-southwest towards the north Queensland coast tonight. Severe tropical cyclone Debbie is forecast to make landfall between Cape Upstart and Cape Hillsborough (north of Mackay) on Tuesday morning.

Hazards:
The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of tropical cyclone Debbie is forecast to cross the coast between Cape Upstart and Cape Hillsborough (north of Mackay) on Tuesday morning with wind gusts potentially to 275 km/h near the centre of the system.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts over 125 km/h will develop about the exposed coast and islands between Cape Upstart and Mackay tonight. These DESTRUCTIVE WINDS may extend further northwest along the coast to Townsville and to adjacent inland areas, including Collinsville, during the day on Tuesday.

GALES are now occurring about the Whitsunday Islands and the nearby coast, extending south to about Sarina, and are expected to extend to the remaining exposed coast and islands elsewhere between Ayr and St Lawrence this evening. GALES could potentially extend further northwest to Cardwell and further inland to locations such as Charters Towers, and Mount Coolon on Tuesday.

GALES may extend further inland to locations such as Pentland and Moranbah as the weakening cyclone moves further inland on Tuesday night.

Residents between Cape Upstart and St Lawrence are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast on Tuesday morning. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline as the cyclone approaches the coast on Tuesday. Large waves may also develop along the beachfront. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

Areas of heavy rain with the potential to cause severe flash flooding have developed around the central coast and Whitsundays and are expected to spread to other parts of the northern and central Queensland coast and adjacent inland areas tonight and continue through Tuesday. Widespread daily rainfall totals of 150 to 250 mm, with isolated event totals of 500 mm, are also likely to lead to major river flooding over a broad area next week, and a Flood Watch is current for coastal catchments between Rollingstone and Gladstone, extending inland to the Upper Flinders, Thomson and Barcoo catchments.

Recommended Action:
People on the Whitsunday Islands should complete preparations quickly and be prepared to shelter in a safe place.

People between Cardwell and St Lawrence, and inland to Collinsville, Charters Towers, and Mount Coolon should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially securing boats and property.

- Boats and outside property should be secured using available daylight hours.

People further inland, including Pentland, and Moranbah, should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.

- Information is available from your local government

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster Management Services website (http://www.disaster.qld.gov.au)

- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 9:00 pm AEST Monday 27 March.
This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's website at http://www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone


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Re: SPAC: DEBBIE - Tropical Cyclone

#49 Postby cycloneye » Mon Mar 27, 2017 5:45 am

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Re: SPAC: DEBBIE - Tropical Cyclone

#50 Postby euro6208 » Mon Mar 27, 2017 7:12 am

Image

Cat 4 Aussie scale equals to a Cat 3 to 98–112 knots (113–129 mph; 181–207 km/h) on the SSHS U.S scale.
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Re: SPAC: DEBBIE - Tropical Cyclone

#51 Postby wxman57 » Mon Mar 27, 2017 10:00 am

euro6208 wrote:http://i.imgur.com/IPV0TVY.png

Cat 4 Aussie scale equals to a Cat 3 to 98–112 knots (113–129 mph; 181–207 km/h) on the SSHS U.S scale.


In this case, BoM has Debbie's 10-min winds at 95 kts (110 mph), which would be a SS Cat 2. However, SS is based on 1-min winds. To convert 10-min winds to 1-min winds over water you multiply by 1.11, which gives 109.3kts. For winds over land, you'd multiply by 1.21. Either way, Debbie does qualify for a Saffir-Simpson Category 3 intensity.

As for Debbie's track, the BoM track looks too far north (close to Bowen). Looks like Debbie's center will track inland between Bowen and Proserpine, but closer to Proserpine.
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Re: SPAC: DEBBIE - Tropical Cyclone

#52 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Mar 27, 2017 11:31 am

Based on what appears to be a large outer eyewall developing on microwave imagery, I think Debbie may be leveling out as far as intensity goes.

Image
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Re: SPAC: DEBBIE - Tropical Cyclone

#53 Postby cycloneye » Mon Mar 27, 2017 1:55 pm

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Re: SPAC: DEBBIE - Tropical Cyclone

#54 Postby cycloneye » Mon Mar 27, 2017 2:31 pm

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Re: SPAC: DEBBIE - Tropical Cyclone

#55 Postby cycloneye » Mon Mar 27, 2017 2:58 pm

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Re: SPAC: DEBBIE - Tropical Cyclone

#56 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Mar 27, 2017 3:30 pm

I saw a report from one of the islands of a pressure of 953mb with light, but not calm, winds. Assuming a pressure around 950mb, that would support the 100 kt intensity well given that it is a fairly large storm.
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Re: SPAC: DEBBIE - Tropical Cyclone

#57 Postby cycloneye » Mon Mar 27, 2017 4:18 pm

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Re: SPAC: DEBBIE - Tropical Cyclone

#58 Postby cycloneye » Mon Mar 27, 2017 4:37 pm

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Re: SPAC: DEBBIE - Tropical Cyclone

#59 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Mar 27, 2017 4:51 pm

If the K-Z-C wind relationship is used on a central pressure of 950mb, what intensity does it come out to given its size and latitude?
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Re: SPAC: DEBBIE - Tropical Cyclone

#60 Postby cycloneye » Mon Mar 27, 2017 5:21 pm

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