WPAC: 02W - Tropical Depression - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: 02W - Tropical Depression

#61 Postby euro6208 » Fri Apr 14, 2017 6:33 am

Future doesn't look so bright for 02W.
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Re: WPAC: 02W - Tropical Depression

#62 Postby cycloneye » Fri Apr 14, 2017 9:36 am

JTWC warning at 15z.

WDPN31 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 02W (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 506 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER AN ORGANIZED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 141217Z METOP-A 89GHZ IMAGE,
HOWEVER, SHOWS CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T1.5 TO T2.0 (25 TO 30 KNOTS). TD
02W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 02W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE
CENTRAL PHILIPPINES AND WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
THE EASTERN VISAYAS NEAR TAU 18. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
DESPITE THE RECENT STRENGTHENING OF THE SYSTEM, THERE ARE KEY
FACTORS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT INTENSIFICATION, PRIMARILY, THE
PRESENCE OF DRY AIR OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, THE LACK OF A
WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION, THE CYCLIC NATURE OF THE
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION AND INTERACTION WITH LAND. TD 02W MAY
INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO 30 KNOTS BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OR REMAIN
STEADY AT 25 KNOTS BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY
PRIOR TO WEAKENING AND DISSIPATING OVER THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES
AFTER TAU 24. THE REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AFTER TAU 48 BUT ARE NOT FORECAST TO REGENERATE
DUE TO INCREASING NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.//
NNNN

Image
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Re: WPAC: 02W - Tropical Depression

#63 Postby cycloneye » Fri Apr 14, 2017 3:42 pm

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 02W (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 506 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER AN ORGANIZED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 141217Z METOP-A 89GHZ IMAGE,
HOWEVER, SHOWS CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T1.5 TO T2.0 (25 TO 30 KNOTS). TD
02W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE LOW-TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 02W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE
CENTRAL PHILIPPINES AND WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
THE EASTERN VISAYAS NEAR TAU 18. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
DESPITE THE RECENT STRENGTHENING OF THE SYSTEM, THERE ARE KEY
FACTORS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT INTENSIFICATION, PRIMARILY, THE
PRESENCE OF DRY AIR OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, THE LACK OF A
WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION, THE CYCLIC NATURE OF THE
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION AND INTERACTION WITH LAND. TD 02W MAY
INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO 30 KNOTS BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OR REMAIN
STEADY AT 25 KNOTS BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY
PRIOR TO WEAKENING AND DISSIPATING OVER THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES
AFTER TAU 24. THE REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AFTER TAU 48 BUT ARE NOT FORECAST TO REGENERATE
DUE TO INCREASING NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.//
NNNN

Image
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Re: WPAC: 02W - Tropical Depression

#64 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Fri Apr 14, 2017 6:22 pm

Image
GFS forecast is looking correct with a TD. A v/wet Easter for some.

Image
CI wise sat the TD was on the cusp for a name, pressure wise no.
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Re: WPAC: 02W - Tropical Depression

#65 Postby euro6208 » Fri Apr 14, 2017 10:06 pm

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO) WARNING
NR 04//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 02W (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 422 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION WITH WEAK BANDING WRAPPING INTO A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
THE PGTW FIX, WITH NO RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY TO SUPPORT. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WAS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS, SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE
PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES, BASED ON THE
141312Z ASCAT PASS SHOWING A SMALL AREA OF 30 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN GENERALLY
FAVORABLE, WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES AND GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. THE PRIMARY HINDRANCE TO DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN THE POOR
ORGANIZATION OF THE LLCC. TD 02W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE
ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 02W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE
CENTRAL PHILIPPINES AND WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
THE EASTERN VISAYAS BEFORE TAU 12. DUE TO THE POOR LOW LEVEL
ORGANIZATION AND APPROACHING LANDFALL, NO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED. DRY AIR TO THE WEST AND CONTINUED LAND INTERACTION OVER
THE MARITIME CONTINENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DISSIPATION OF TD 02W
BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE REMNANTS ARE
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AFTER TAU
36 BUT ARE NOT FORECAST TO REGENERATE DUE TO INCREASING NORTHERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: 02W - Tropical Depression

#66 Postby cycloneye » Sat Apr 15, 2017 5:26 am

Final warning.

WTPN31 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 11.3N 126.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 11.3N 126.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 11.9N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 12.5N 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 11.4N 125.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 373 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 150614Z SSMI 85 GHZ IMAGE DEPICT WEAK
CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH DIMINISHING BANDING FEATURES. RECENT
SCATTEROMETRY DATA SHOWS EVIDENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE WITH LITTLE
ORGANIZATION OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE PHILIPPINES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE FIXES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T1.0 TO T1.5 (25 KNOTS) AND ON A
150050Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING 25 KNOTS ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH
GOOD OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29 CELSIUS) SSTS.
TD 02W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL PHILIPPINES MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
THE EASTERN VISAYAS IN THE NEXT SIX HOURS. DESPITE THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, THE POOR LOW LEVEL ORGANIZATION AND IMMANENT LAND
INTERACTION WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE REMNANTS OF TD 02W RESURFACING OVER WATER NEAR TAU 36. THE
MESOSCALE SOLUTIONS (GFDN AND HWRF) ARE SHOWING THE POSSIBILITY OF
THE SYSTEM REORGANIZING INTO A WEAK DEPRESSION, HOWEVER THE GLOBAL
SOLUTIONS DO NOT INDICATE REGENERATION. OVERALL, THERE IS TIGHT
AGREEMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE PHILIPPINES, THEREFORE,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS
POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 8 FEET.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: 02W - Tropical Depression - Post-Tropical

#67 Postby euro6208 » Sun Apr 16, 2017 4:53 am

02W TWO 170416 0600 12.2N 121.6E WPAC 20 1007

Image
Image
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Re: WPAC: 02W - Tropical Depression - Post-Tropical

#68 Postby cycloneye » Sun Apr 16, 2017 6:25 am

What is left of the TD caused flooding in Cebu with some deaths reported.

http://news.abs-cbn.com/news/04/16/17/7 ... ebu-floods
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Re: WPAC: 02W - Tropical Depression - Post-Tropical

#69 Postby euro6208 » Tue Apr 18, 2017 5:29 am

Still alive.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS 02W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.9N 116.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 117.2E, APPROXIMATELY
260 NM NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH FLARING CONVECTION TO THE WEST. THE 180223Z METOP-B
ASCAT PASS SHOWS 15-20 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTH AND 10-15 KNOTS TO
THE NORTH. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH
THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY LOCATED BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CAUSING
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES, HOWEVER THE SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE
STRONG POLEWARD OR EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY ENTRAINING DRY AIR WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PREVENT RE-
INTENSIFICATION. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THE REMNANTS
FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE NORTH. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
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Re: WPAC: 02W - Tropical Depression - Post-Tropical

#70 Postby euro6208 » Tue Apr 18, 2017 5:32 am

Image
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Re: WPAC: 02W - Tropical Depression - Post-Tropical

#71 Postby euro6208 » Wed Apr 19, 2017 5:26 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.9N
116.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 117.9E, APPROXIMATELY 265 NM
NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS UNDERGONE A
MOISTENING PHASE OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
SITTING IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OFFSET BY POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ALTHOUGH THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW NO
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWARD, THERE IS A
SHORT WINDOW (24 HRS) FOR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION BEFORE THE SYSTEM
TRACKS INTO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE LOCATED TO THE NORTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
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Re: WPAC: 02W - Tropical Depression - Post-Tropical

#72 Postby euro6208 » Wed Apr 19, 2017 5:28 am

Image
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Re: WPAC: 02W - Tropical Depression - Post-Tropical

#73 Postby euro6208 » Wed Apr 19, 2017 5:30 am

Image

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1010 HPA AT 18N 118E NNE SLOWLY.
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Re: WPAC: 02W - Tropical Depression - Post-Tropical

#74 Postby euro6208 » Wed Apr 19, 2017 9:04 pm

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 02W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.9N 117.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 120.9E, APPROXIMATELY
260 NM SOUTH OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 191959Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT AN ELONGATED CENTER
WITH A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION AND FLARING CONVECTION TO
THE EAST OF THE DISTURBANCE. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE TO UNFAVORABLE DUE TO THE SYSTEM TRACKING INTO
AN AREA OF HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25-30 KNOTS), HOWEVER, THE
DISTURBANCE STILL RESIDES IN WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27
CELSIUS) AND HAS GOOD POLEWARD DIVERGENCE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALL IN
AGREEMENT THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE
NORTHEAST BUT NO MODELS INDICATE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
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Re: WPAC: 02W - Tropical Depression - Post-Tropical

#75 Postby euro6208 » Thu Apr 20, 2017 7:45 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 02W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 20.7N 120.9E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
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