ATL: ARLENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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ATL: ARLENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1 Postby jaguarjace » Mon Apr 17, 2017 7:42 am

91L INVEST 170417 1200 32.7N 47.1W ATL 50 986
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#2 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Apr 17, 2017 8:30 am

Second Invest of the year and it's only April 17th! :eek:

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Last edited by TheStormExpert on Mon Apr 17, 2017 8:34 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#3 Postby weathaguyry » Mon Apr 17, 2017 8:30 am

This is pretty interesting, It doesn't look that bad, but it's kind of weird that we are on invest 91L already and the NHC hasn't mentioned a thing.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#4 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Apr 17, 2017 8:37 am

weathaguyry wrote:This is pretty interesting, It doesn't look that bad, but it's kind of weird that we are on invest 91L already and the NHC hasn't mentioned a thing.

Unless it is a immediate threat to land or the U.S. or is a borderline Tropical Cyclone the NHC seems to rarely awaken during the off-season for these things.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#5 Postby weathaguyry » Mon Apr 17, 2017 8:40 am

Image

It's in a fairly low shear environment
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ATL: ARLENE - Models

#6 Postby cycloneye » Mon Apr 17, 2017 9:41 am

A large circle.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#7 Postby panamatropicwatch » Mon Apr 17, 2017 10:51 am

Haven't seen a storm floater put up yet. 8-)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#8 Postby Kazmit » Mon Apr 17, 2017 11:55 am

Very interesting, yet another invest and it's only mid-April! This is starting to get me to believe that we'll see much more activity in the first half of the season than there was last year, especially if El Niño develops in the fall.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#9 Postby Kazmit » Mon Apr 17, 2017 12:00 pm

Already has 50kt winds.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#10 Postby cycloneye » Mon Apr 17, 2017 12:14 pm

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1250 PM EDT Mon Apr 17 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A non-tropical low pressure system located over the central Atlantic
about midway between Bermuda and the Azores Islands is producing an
area of gale-force winds to the west of the center. This low is
currently producing only limited shower activity, but environmental
conditions could favor additional development and this system has
some potential to become a subtropical cyclone over the next day or
so as it moves generally eastward. The next Special Tropical
Weather Outlook will be issued by 2 PM EDT Tuesday. For additional
information on this system, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on
the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Franklin/Stewart


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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion - Special Tropical Weather Outlook - 30%

#11 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Apr 17, 2017 12:33 pm

First TWO of the year!
:woo:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#12 Postby Vince_and_Grace_fan » Mon Apr 17, 2017 12:34 pm

The first HWRF run expect pretty good (subtrpical) structure, already tomorrow. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf&region=91L&pkg=goes4&runtime=2017041712&fh=0

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#13 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Apr 17, 2017 12:35 pm

Wouldn't surprise me if we manage to get Arlene from this. Like the past 6-7 years the Subtropical Atlantic is the new MDR. :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion - Special Tropical Weather Outlook - 30%

#14 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Apr 17, 2017 12:53 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion - Special Tropical Weather Outlook - 30%

#15 Postby weathaguyry » Mon Apr 17, 2017 1:20 pm

WOW! I can't believe that this is all happening so fast! I wonder if we'll see Arlene soon, I would have assumed that the NHC wouldn't bother with this like they didn't bother with the one in March, but I guess I was wrong!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion - Special Tropical Weather Outlook - 30%

#16 Postby cycloneye » Mon Apr 17, 2017 2:14 pm

Extratropical at 18z.

AL, 91, 2017041718, , BEST, 0, 323N, 452W, 45, 987, EX

Location: 32.3°N 45.2°W
Maximum Winds: 45 kt  Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 987 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1012 mb
Radius of Circulation: 330 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 110 NM
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion - Special Tropical Weather Outlook - 30%

#17 Postby cycloneye » Mon Apr 17, 2017 2:50 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#18 Postby cycloneye » Mon Apr 17, 2017 2:54 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion - Special Tropical Weather Outlook - 30%

#19 Postby RL3AO » Mon Apr 17, 2017 3:02 pm

From Alicia Bentley's webpage.

I thought it was fun to track the PV anomaly from a central US cyclone last week march across the SE US and into the SW Atlantic before interacting with the midlatitude cyclone over the north-central Atlantic.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion - Special Tropical Weather Outlook - 30%

#20 Postby Kazmit » Mon Apr 17, 2017 3:03 pm

This invest reminds me a lot of Tropical Storm Ana from 2003. Similar location, exact same time, and it developed as a subtropical storm. It's listed as an analog here.

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