WPAC: MUIFA - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 26 APR 2017 Time : 023000 UTC
Lat : 13:16:06 N Lon : 134:38:14 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 /1000.7mb/ 47.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.1 3.4 3.5

Center Temp : -52.8C Cloud Region Temp : -55.7C

Scene Type : IRREGULAR CDO*

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 50km
- Environmental MSLP : 1011mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 17.2 degrees

****************************************************

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 26 APR 2017 Time : 050000 UTC
Lat : 13:25:26 N Lon : 134:26:27 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 996.8mb/ 53.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.4 3.4 3.4

Center Temp : -61.5C Cloud Region Temp : -57.1C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 50km
- Environmental MSLP : 1011mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 17.5 degrees

****************************************************

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 03W (MUIFA)
WARNING NR 07//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 03W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 328 NM NORTHWEST
OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED OVERALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE, DESPITE ITS
STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN CONSOLIDATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
THE MSI LOOP WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF OBJECTIVE AND AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THAT
IS SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LAYER OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS MUIFA WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS. AFTERWARD, IT WILL ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND TRACK
NORTHWARD THEN ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ON THE POLEWARD SIDE.
INCREASED OUTFLOW AND LOW VWS OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS WILL PROMOTE
MODERATE INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 50 KNOTS BEFORE INCREASED VWS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES RAPIDLY ERODE, THEN
DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING AN OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[wxman57]

Squalls have dissipated. Looks more like a remnant low than a 40kt TS.

[euro6208]

2017's Muifa seem to behave this year and weaker.

2004's peak at 115 Cat4 but weaker as it makes landfall over the P.I, Vietnam, and Thailand. Over 100 killed.

2011's peak at 140 Cat 5 but weaker on approach to Koreas, Japan, and the P.I...

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 03W (MUIFA) WARNING NR
09//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 379 NM
NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RECENT
RESURGENCE OF CONVECTION OVER A PREVIOUSLY EXPOSED COMPACT LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 261735Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWS LOW REFLECTIVITY BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC WHICH SUPPORTS
THE CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT
40 KNOTS BASED ON A PREVIOUS BYU HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PRODUCT
SHOWING 40 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY AND IS SUPPORTED
BY RECENT SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATES NEAR 45 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER, A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES AND RECENT ASCAT PASSES HAVE
SHOWN AN ELONGATION OF THE LLCC WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING TO THE
SOUTHWEST WHICH HAS PREVENTED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION. TS 03W IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS MUIFA WILL CONTINUE TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR
AND ACCELERATE NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. STRONG OUTFLOW AND
LOW VWS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
MODERATE INTENSIFICATION, PEAKING AT 45 KNOTS BEFORE INCREASED VWS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES RAPIDLY ERODE, THEN
DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT, PROVIDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

TXPQ28 KNES 262317
TCSWNP
CCA

A. 03W (MUIFA)

B. 26/2030Z

C. 14.7N

D. 134.4E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T2.5/2.5/S0.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...CORRECTED FOR POSITION BASED ON 2150Z SSMIS DATA,
WHICH SHOWED THE CENTER TO BE FARTHER SOUTH. ANALYSIS OF BLENDED TPW
SUGGESTS THAT DRY AIR MAY BE ENTRAINING INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CIRCULATION. RELATIVELY NEW CONVECTION MEASURES 5/10, WHICH RESULTS IN
A DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT ARE ALSO 2.5. FT IS BASED ON MET BECAUSE BANDING
FEATURES WERE NOT CLEAR CUT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK


TPPN10 PGTW 270024

A. TROPICAL STORM 03W (MUIFA)

B. 27/0000Z

C. 14.86N

D. 134.52E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T2.0/2.0/W0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .35 WRAP YIELDS A DT OF 2.0. PT
AND MET AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
26/2150Z 14.58N 134.33E SSMS


MARTINEZ

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 03W (MUIFA) WARNING NR
10//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 392 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A RAGGED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE SLIGHTLY SHEARED FROM A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THIS IMAGERY
PROVIDES GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. A 262230Z AMSU-B
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE FURTHER ILLUSTRATES THE EXPOSED LLCC TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION. THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT
40 KNOTS BASED ON AN ASSESSMENT OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN MOSTLY
FAVORABLE WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, THE STRUGGLING
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH NO INDICATION OF FURTHER CONSOLIDATION OF
THE LLCC INDICATES THAT THE STORM HAS MOST LIKELY REACHED ITS PEAK
INTENSITY. TS 03W HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
AXIS AND STARTED TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS MUIFA WILL CONTINUE TO ROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STEERING STR AND ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO AN AREA OF INCREASED
VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. THE
IMPACTS OF THE DETERIORATING ENVIRONMENT WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE
STORM, LEADING TO ITS COMPLETE DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
PROVIDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 03W (MUIFA) WARNING NR
11//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 432 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION SLIGHTLY SHEARED FROM A PARTIALLY EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE AVAILABLE IMAGERY PROVIDES
FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON A 270055Z PARTIAL ASCAT METOP-B
IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS 30-35KT WINDS IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. TS 03W
IS TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN
AREA OF WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C), WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND ALOFT INDUCING LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. DECREASING CONVECTION AND A LESS ORGANIZED LOW
LEVEL STRUCTURE INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. FORECAST INTENSITIES HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS
WARNING. HOWEVER, THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 03W (MUIFA) WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE INTO AN
AREA OF STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE WITHIN 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES POLEWARD INTO THE INCREASINGLY
UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

WTPN31 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (MUIFA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 17.9N 134.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9N 134.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 19.8N 135.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 22.4N 138.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 18.4N 134.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 554 NM
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z
IS 10 FEET.
//
NNNN