SPAC: ELLA - Post-Tropical

[AJC3]

Already looks like a midget cyclone. Spun up pretty rapidly...

05/07/2017 1122Z
Lat: 17.1S Lon: 176.2W
T1.5/1.5

SH, 91, 2017/05/07/0522Z 17.4S, 176.3W, 25KT KNES DT=1.0 MET=1.0 PT=1.0
SH, 91, 2017/05/07/1122Z 17.1S, 176.2W, 25KT KNES DT=2.0 MET=1.5 PT=1.5 FTBO MET

[1900hurricane]

Heh, all the SHEM tropical cyclones must have decided to wait until May this year.

[1900hurricane]

And yeah, I'd definitely classify.

[doomhaMwx]

Not merely an Invest as shown by a bullseye ASCAT Metop-A pass @ around 11am UTC (05/08)... Tropical Storm-force winds of 35-40kts are found near a well-defined LLCC...

[NotoSans]

What's the point of issuing TCFA when it's already a cyclone?



WTPS21 PGTW 081430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 230 NM RADIUS OF 15.9S 172.5W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 081400Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.9S 172.5W. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 16.3S 173.5W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.9S 172.5W, APPROXIMATELY
145 NM SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 080944Z METOP-B 89 GHZ IMAGE
DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD CENTER. A 072114Z ASCAT
IMAGE SHOWS A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT GRADIENT WINDS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION AND 20 TO 25 KNOT
WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND BROAD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. A
RECENT 850 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS POSITIONED ALONG
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH COOLER AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL
INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. DYNAMIC MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE
WEAK DEVELOPMENT AND A SLOW WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
MOTION OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
091430Z.//
NNNN

[wxman57]

Fiji's latest outlook indicates it's a disturbance with a "low" chance of developing. That's staying on top of the situation!

[wxman57]

Not merely an Invest as shown by a bullseye ASCAT Metop-A pass @ around 11am UTC (05/08)... Tropical Storm-force winds of 35-40kts are found near a well-defined LLCC...
[img]http://i.imgur.com/gGhePD3r.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/hSNPaVz.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/QHh6ewE.gif

Where did you get that image? All I can find is this one on the "Manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov" website which has all winds as rain-contaminated near the center.

[1900hurricane]

Not merely an Invest as shown by a bullseye ASCAT Metop-A pass @ around 11am UTC (05/08)... Tropical Storm-force winds of 35-40kts are found near a well-defined LLCC...
[img]http://i.imgur.com/gGhePD3r.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/hSNPaVz.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/QHh6ewE.gif

Where did you get that image? All I can find is this one on the "Manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov" website which has all winds as rain-contaminated near the center.

From here I think.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Pathetic excuse for a forecasting agency. A system with a defined eye on microwave imagery is not an invest.

[1900hurricane]

Welp...

[1900hurricane]

00Z intensity update is up to 35 kt now, but still no renumber.

91P INVEST 170509 0000 15.3S 172.9W SHEM 35 1005

[NotoSans]

Finally upgraded to TC 19P by JTWC, but the intensity estimate of 35 kt still looks a bit low.

[dexterlabio]

Wow, another addition to a back-loaded season.

[Yellow Evan]

TPPS11 PGTW 090306

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (W OF PAGO PAGO)

B. 09/0253Z

C. 15.07S

D. 172.73W

E. FIVE/GOES15

F. T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .30 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS
1.5 DT. MET/PT 2.0. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
08/2311Z 15.30S 172.68W GPMI

Intense feeder band limiting the DT.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Can't deny the microwaves posted above, but on sat this looks a weak n sheared storm.
19P NINETEEN 170509 0000 15.3S 172.9W SHEM 35 1005








ATM tracks W towards Fiji.

[NotoSans]

RSMC Nadi upgraded it to TC Ella at 03Z.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
May 090447 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ELLA CENTRE 995HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1S 172.7W AT
090300 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 EIR AND VIS IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT
ABOUT 4 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 40 KNOTS.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT OVER SUPPOSED LLCC. ORGANISATION HAS
IMPROVED IN THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH PRIMARY BANDS TRYING TO WRAP ONTO
LLCC. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM STEERED WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID LEVEL SUB TROPICAL HIGH. DVORAL
ANALYSIS BASED ON CURVED PATTERN OF 0.7 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL, YIELDS
DT=3.0, MET AND PAT AGREE. FT BASED DT. THUS YIELDING,
T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 091500 UTC 14.7S 174.5W MOV WNW AT 09 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 100300 UTC 14.7S 176.2W MOV W AT 09 KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 101500 UTC 14.9S 178.0W MOV W AT 09 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 110300 UTC 15.3S 179.5W MOV W AT 08 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE ELLA WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 090800 UTC.

[doomhaMwx]

"Ella"

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

19P NINETEEN 170509 0600 14.8S 173.2W SHEM 40 1004

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Benefiting from the improving upper- level conditions for the outflow.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

19P ELLA 170511 0600 14.0S 177.2W SHEM 55 982


http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... Table.html