EPAC: ADRIAN - Post-Tropical

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EPAC: ADRIAN - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sun May 07, 2017 2:12 pm

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EP, 90, 2017050718, , BEST, 0, 80N, 885W, 20, 1008, DB.

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#2 Postby cycloneye » Sun May 07, 2017 2:43 pm

Models are bullish.

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#3 Postby Kingarabian » Sun May 07, 2017 4:56 pm

Waters below this are very warm and if the upper levels remain conducive, I don't see how this won't attain major hurricane status.

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#4 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun May 07, 2017 5:47 pm

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP902017 05/07/17 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 31 42 53 66 73 78 84 87 92
V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 31 42 53 66 73 78 84 87 92
V (KT) LGEM 20 21 21 22 24 27 30 34 39 44 52 62 71
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 5 7 9 11 11 11 17 17 22 13 20 21 11
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 2 1 4 3 -1 -4 -5 -3 -5 0 4
SHEAR DIR 126 124 101 83 76 68 80 80 88 67 43 49 54
SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.8 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.9 30.0 29.6
POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 160 158 158 159 161 161 161 163 163 166 164
200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -53.1 -52.6 -53.3 -52.9 -53.5 -53.1 -53.5 -52.9 -53.2 -51.9
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 7 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 7
700-500 MB RH 79 79 80 80 79 80 79 77 75 79 82 83 81
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 10 10 11 12 14 15 15 17 20 24
850 MB ENV VOR 50 45 48 56 64 70 72 79 68 68 66 65 97
200 MB DIV 77 93 111 119 146 170 164 180 167 192 199 200 226
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 -1 -1
LAND (KM) 375 385 412 443 476 561 600 635 666 745 752 578 235
LAT (DEG N) 8.0 8.1 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.4 8.2 7.4 6.6 6.7 9.2
LONG(DEG W) 88.5 88.7 89.0 89.4 89.8 90.8 91.9 92.6 92.9 92.7 91.7 89.8 87.8
STM SPEED (KT) 1 3 3 4 5 5 5 2 2 5 7 12 18
HEAT CONTENT 9 8 9 9 9 12 19 25 27 35 38 20 4

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=586)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 13.9

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 0. 5. 14. 22. 29. 33. 36. 37. 38.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -2. -2. -1. -1. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 13. 15. 15. 15. 15.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 9. 12. 14. 17.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 10. 11. 11. 11. 9.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 22. 33. 46. 54. 58. 64. 67. 72.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 8.0 88.5

** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902017 INVEST 05/07/17 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.1 40.3 to 144.5 0.95 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 8.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.12 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 38.9 to 2.1 0.58 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.59 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 109.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.82 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): -5.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.91 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.22 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
---------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
---------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 14.6% 38.8% 36.9% 14.6% 8.8% 51.3% 56.9%
Bayesian: 1.0% 2.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 1.1%
Consensus: 5.2% 13.6% 12.6% 4.9% 3.0% 17.2% 19.4%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902017 INVEST 05/07/17 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##


Track too far south, so shear is high end of run.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#5 Postby Alyono » Sun May 07, 2017 5:50 pm

more impressed with this today

Regardless of development, this could be a major flooding and mudslide event for Central America
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#6 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun May 07, 2017 5:51 pm

18z GFS further west, back into Guatemala. Still likely too far east, favoring what the UKMET has been showing for this and what the ECMWF now shows. Last two parallel GFS runs bring this into Costa Rica and El Salvador.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#7 Postby cycloneye » Sun May 07, 2017 6:02 pm

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#8 Postby cycloneye » Sun May 07, 2017 6:57 pm

Will it crossover and redevelop in Caribbean?

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/861367999193915393


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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#9 Postby Alyono » Sun May 07, 2017 7:22 pm

I see that the source I was using for the detailed UKMET text forecast products now has a forbidden error when trying to access it.

I only get Atlantic UKMET text outputs in e-mail
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#10 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sun May 07, 2017 7:37 pm

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Image

May get a boost from the current modeled KW or the mjo signal.



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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#11 Postby cycloneye » Sun May 07, 2017 8:08 pm

Location: 7.9°N 89.2°W
Maximum Winds: 20 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1010 mb
Radius of Circulation: 180 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 120 N

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#12 Postby weathaguyry » Sun May 07, 2017 8:31 pm

I think it depends on exactly where the system ends up popping out into the Atlantic, if it stays over the Yucatan Peninsula for any prolonged period of time, it will likely be a sloppy mess that may not have time to recover, but if it can pass over as a weak TS, it will likely maintain that strength for a little while, as the shear over the system doesn't appear to be terrible.

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#13 Postby dexterlabio » Sun May 07, 2017 9:58 pm

It will be interesting if the storm manages to survive Central America and cross over to the Caribbean with a discernible low-level center..that way I believe it will be able to keep its EPAC name. This kind of reminds me of Barbara in 2013, with the remnants giving birth to Andrea.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#14 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun May 07, 2017 10:26 pm

I know this is most likely going to be a hurricane at landfall at the In Mexico or Guatemala but if it comes into the Caribbean could this be a tropical storm for Cuba
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#15 Postby Alyono » Sun May 07, 2017 11:16 pm

MU dramatically weaker. Has amore reasonable solution of this being a broad slop mess taking forever to get going this time
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#16 Postby Kingarabian » Sun May 07, 2017 11:26 pm

Alyono wrote:MU dramatically weaker. Has amore reasonable solution of this being a broad slop mess taking forever to get going this time

Shear is low, very warm waters. What gives?
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#17 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun May 07, 2017 11:36 pm

Alyono wrote:MU dramatically weaker. Has amore reasonable solution of this being a broad slop mess taking forever to get going this time

Seems to want to take the moisture and form a tropical cyclone in the Caribbean

Ps: it does develop a strong tropical storm before landfall in Guatemala
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#18 Postby Kingarabian » Mon May 08, 2017 2:07 am

ECMWF down to 960mb.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#19 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon May 08, 2017 3:02 am

Unlike its ensembles, 0z ECMWF continues to show it only getting blocked for a short while and moving inland as or near major status. In agreement with 12z UKEMT.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#20 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon May 08, 2017 3:03 am

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP902017 05/08/17 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 30 34 45 57 66 74 80 86 93 92
V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 30 34 45 57 66 74 80 86 93 92
V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 25 29 34 40 45 52 61 72 79
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 9 10 11 12 12 19 19 24 16 16 15 7 10
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 1 3 5 -2 -4 -5 -2 -1 -3 5 5
SHEAR DIR 127 98 78 69 76 77 89 91 65 50 63 82 124
SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.2 30.4
POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 159 160 160 161 161 161 163 163 164 159 171
200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -52.6 -52.6 -53.7 -52.9 -53.8 -52.7 -53.5 -52.4 -53.1 -51.7
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 7 6 7 6 6 6 6 7 9
700-500 MB RH 78 79 79 78 78 80 80 78 77 83 81 78 71
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 10 10 11 13 14 14 16 19 23 22
850 MB ENV VOR 43 43 47 49 46 47 51 54 64 64 87 93 90
200 MB DIV 105 114 117 121 136 155 162 165 195 209 213 195 234
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LAND (KM) 443 489 527 575 625 665 699 756 779 710 527 361 104
LAT (DEG N) 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.8 7.3 6.8 6.4 7.3 9.8 12.6
LONG(DEG W) 89.2 89.7 90.1 90.6 91.1 92.0 92.6 92.7 92.1 91.1 89.7 89.2 90.1
STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 5 5 4 2 2 5 7 10 15 14
HEAT CONTENT 10 11 12 14 18 25 30 37 40 34 15 5 26

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=586)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 25.4

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 0. 5. 14. 22. 29. 33. 36. 37. 38.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -6. -5. -4. -1. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. 15.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 14. 18. 16.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 9.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 25. 37. 46. 54. 60. 66. 73. 72.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 7.9 89.2

** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902017 INVEST 05/08/17 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.7 40.3 to 144.5 0.95 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 13.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.17 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 38.9 to 2.1 0.83 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.45 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 118.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.89 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 2.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.90 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.50 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
---------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
---------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 10.5% 49.7% 35.6% 29.2% 22.6% 47.4% 58.8%
Bayesian: 0.5% 4.8% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 1.4% 1.1%
Consensus: 3.7% 18.2% 12.5% 9.9% 7.6% 16.2% 20.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902017 INVEST 05/08/17 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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