EPAC: ADRIAN - Post-Tropical

[Kazmit]

I definitely see this as a significant rain threat.

[hurricanes1234]

If I'm not mistaken, classification at this current latitude would make it surpass or at least come near to the record of the southernmost formation in the EPAC, right?

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS back to showing a Cat.1 again.

[Kingarabian]

GFS still continues to show delayed development until this weekend, while the other models mostly develop this by Wednesday day.

But it's hard to go against the Euro when it continues to nicely it's develop, with somewhat established outflow, a COC consolidating, and an abundance of deep convection.

[Yellow Evan]

If I'm not mistaken, classification at this current latitude would make it surpass or at least come near to the record of the southernmost formation in the EPAC, right?

Not counting CPAC, yes. Record is 8.2N IIRC.

[cycloneye]

First classification from SSD.

08/2345 UTC 8.0N 90.0W T1.0/1.0 90E -- East Pacific

[1900hurricane]

Looks like a fairly typical monsoon trough setup for 90E. I've annotated the monsoon trough, main disturbance, and low level streamlines in the recent microwave image below.

[1900hurricane]

If I'm not mistaken, classification at this current latitude would make it surpass or at least come near to the record of the southernmost formation in the EPAC, right?

Not counting CPAC, yes. Record is 8.2N IIRC.

Per the Alvin '13 report, there have been at least three EPac tropical cyclones that have developed below 8*N.

[cycloneye]

Up to 70%-90%

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
830 PM PDT Mon May 8 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A broad area of low pressure is located a few hundred miles south
of El Salvador. Shower and thunderstorm activity is showing signs
of organization, and environmental conditions are expected to be
favorable for a tropical depression to form during the next day
or so. The low is forecast to move slowly toward the west-northwest
or northwest, remaining well offshore of the coasts of Central
America and southeastern Mexico through at least Thursday. The
next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued
by 12 PM PDT Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

[hurricanes1234]

Wow, IMO this could be a depression by later today if this trend continues!

[Yellow Evan]

Looks somewhat close, but also fairly elongated, and systems this time of the year tend to wane markedly over night.

[Yellow Evan]

12z parallel GFS brings this into the ALT after hitting Guatemala as a major.

[Kingarabian]

Looks somewhat close, but also fairly elongated, and systems this time of the year tend to wane markedly over night.

Low levels and mid levels don't look exactly stacked.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

[cycloneye]

06z GFS is more stronger (Cat 3) and more west.

[cycloneye]

TCFA issued

WTPN21 PHNC 090830
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.9N 89.4W TO 9.3N 91.8W WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
090600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.1N
90.0W. THE SYSTEM IS QUASI-STATIONARY.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.1N 90.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 350 NM SOUTH OF SAN JOSE, GUATEMALA. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 090331Z MHS METOP-A 89GHZ MICROWAVE
PASS INDICATE DEEP FLARING CONVECTION AND FRAGMENTED BANDING. A
25KM METOP-A ASCENDING PASS SUGGESTS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH HIGHER
WIND SPEEDS (20 KNOTS) ALONG THE SOUTHERN TO SOUTHEASTERN EDGE.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATE DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH A POINT SOURCE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD, LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS), AND FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30C).
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON
RECENT ANALYSIS AND IMPROVED CLOUD STRUCTURE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.

[Kingarabian]

943mb on the 06z GFS.
Another flip by the GFS and the Euro.
GFS is now trending stronger and the 00z Euro has this weaker @ Cat.1 compared to its 12z run which showed a Cat.3.

We're going to be in for a ride this season with these models.

[cycloneye]

TD very soon.

09/1145 UTC 8.4N 90.8W T1.5/1.5 90E -- East Pacific

[NDG]

Circulation looks to be getting better defined this morning with convection near the COC, which I see it near 9N and 90W.

Edit, peharps a little further west than what I think.

[1900hurricane]

We honestly might just be an ASCAT pass away from classification.