EPAC: ADRIAN - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

Guess what? GFS back on the hurricane train in its 18z run.

Best thing to do is stick with HWRF for now.

Yeah I'm especially waiting for the HWRF. It was trending a bit with development in its recent run.

[wxman57]

Adrian is on its death bed. LLC is well-separated (south) from any convection, and it appears to be dissipating.

[hurricanes1234]

Yes, looking absolutely famished right now. Wouldn't surprise me if it's completely gone by tomorrow or Friday. The models are handling this one quite awfully, that's for sure.

[tolakram]

LLC is sitting in the same place, spinning down.

[cycloneye]

And down to TD.

EP, 01, 2017051100, , BEST, 0, 104N, 929W, 30, 1005, TD

[cycloneye]

It may come back.

Tropical Depression Adrian Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012017
1000 PM CDT Wed May 10 2017

Strong southeasterly vertical wind shear has completely decoupled
the mid-/upper-level circulation from the low-level circulation,
with those two features now being separated by more than 250 nmi.
Moreover, there has been no deep convection within 100 nmi of the
exposed low-level circulation for more than 9 hours, and outflow
boundaries have been noted moving southward and eastward toward the
low-level circulation center over the past few hours. The associated
stable air behind those boundaries will likely prevent regeneration
of any central deep convection in the near term, resulting in Adrian
becoming a remnant low by early Thursday. After 48 hours, the
various dynamical and statistical models are in significant
disagreement on possible regeneration. The GFS, UKMET, CMC, SHIPS,
and LGEM models are indicating regeneration into a significant
tropical cyclone by 48 hours and beyond, whereas the ECMWF, HWRF,
and Navy COAMPS models show Adrian remaining a shallow remnant low
for the next 5 days. Given that environmental conditions are
expected to be favorable with SSTs greater than 30C, a moist
mid-level environment, and fairly low shear, the official intensity
forecast is a middle-of-the-road blend between these two extremes.
However, complete dissipation of this system is a very distinct
possibility some time during the forecast period.

The initial motion estimate is 305/04 kt. Adrian is expected to
move slowly west-northwestward to northwestward for the next 24 to
48 hours. The shallow system is forecast to turn more westward by 72
hours and beyond, possibly even stalling and making erratic motion
due to the expected collapse of the steering currents as the
deep-layer ridge over Mexico and the Gulf of Mexico breaks down. The
new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and lies
a little south of the TVCN consensus model, closer to the ECMWF
solution.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 10.5N 93.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 11.1N 93.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 12/0000Z 11.7N 94.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 12/1200Z 12.1N 95.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 13/0000Z 12.4N 96.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 14/0000Z 12.4N 97.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 15/0000Z 12.4N 97.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 16/0000Z 12.4N 97.7W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[TheStormExpert]

Man! I never thought I'd see the day a Tropical Cyclone gets the same naked swirl death treatment that is accustomed to the Atlantic basin. Wonder if this is an indicator as to how active(or quiet) the East Pacific season might be?

[Steve820]

Haven't posted on this forum in a while. But I'm shocked that a storm would form here so early, especially to be the record-earliest storm

Adrian seems to be really struggling. It is predicted to re-intensify to a TS though and could be something pretty big in the very long run, past the 5 days mark.

[Kingarabian]

GFS still making this a major down the line. Let's see thr Euro in an hour.

[TheStormExpert]

Euro dissipates it, GFS is likely out to lunch.

[NDG]

RIP

[Kazmit]

It has a chance to come back, but as of now it's not looking good.

[TheStormExpert]

06z GFS now completely dissipates it. Time to get bones out of storage?

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/adria ... orm-record
Dr. Jeff Masters

[Kazmit]

Post-Tropical Cyclone Adrian Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012017
1000 AM CDT Thu May 11 2017

Adrian consists of a rather insignificant-looking swirl of low
clouds with just a few isolated showers. The system has been
devoid of significant deep convection since yesterday afternoon, so
it is being declared a remnant low on this advisory.

The initial motion estimate is again 315/6 kt. The post-tropical
cyclone is likely to turn toward the west-northwest to the south of
a weak mid-level ridge over the next couple of days, and meander
within weak steering flow to the south of Mexico later in the
forecast period.

This is the last advisory on Adrian unless regeneration occurs.
For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.

[hurricanes1234]

So long, Adrian...

Or should I say: so short, Adrian ...

[wxman57]

Testing Bones on my new web domain...

[abajan]

Rocky start to the East Pacific season:
http://www.youtube.com/embed/t1yzIeBRh5o

Bizarre!

[hurricanes1234]

Floater dropped.