BoB: CYCLONE MORA

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

[quote="
Strongest winds remain in the western half of the storm, with the heavier convection. Center is on the eastern side.

Maybe 50-55kts on the western side of the storm.

[doomhaMwx]

Wonder what sort of rainfall threat it poses to Bangladesh. It's pulling the rain over Sri Lanka, right?

HWRF model showing mostly 100mm totals in some parts of Chittagong division, and possibly also in some inland regions of Bangladesh and in NE India...

I'm thinking that heaviest rainfall will be west of the landfall location if this remains sheared (by easterly shear) through landfall...

[doomhaMwx]

Wonder what sort of rainfall threat it poses to Bangladesh. It's pulling the rain over Sri Lanka, right?

Speaking of Sri Lanka, at least 151 people are now dead with about 100 still missing in monsoon-triggered floods and mud/landslides...
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/ ... 150-people

[Alyono]

the center location is BAD news. It is not as far east as it appeared previously. This brings a Delta strike back into play in a big way

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

GFS

10metre w/speed kts. Surge in combination with rain is a worry here.


precip 3/hour mm.

[doomhaMwx]

JTWC Warning #6
(05-29-17 00z)

WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 17.0N 90.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 17.4N 90.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (MORA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 322 NM SOUTH OF CHITTAGONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 14 FEET.

[Alyono]

EVERYTHING that could go wrong, has went wrong for Bangladesh during the past 6 hours.

1. The center is near 91W. This is not east enough for a Myanmar landfall
2. The system is intensifying quickly now
3. It is MUCH larger than was forecast. This 3rd factor is what will create a mass casualty tidal surge

Unless we see a trend reversal, something at least as bad as the 1985 cyclone is likely

[shah83]

Yeah, I was thinking about the size thing. Lots bigger than Sidr. Made me think of Morakot, which was why I asked about rainfall. Gotta really organize to intensify much, though. And quickly.

[Alyono]

Yeah, I was thinking about the size thing. Lots bigger than Sidr. Made me think of Morakot, which was why I asked about rainfall. Gotta really organize to intensify much, though. And quickly.

unfortunately, this seems to be building a core very rapidly

[Alyono]

ASCAT just hit the system as of 0315 UTC. There was a 50 kt wind south of the center. Probably a 55 kt storm now

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

I eyeballed a maritime GPS ascat 12hrs ago with 45- 53kt wind to the SW.

[Kingarabian]

This is just terrible.

Blowing up right in time... bad news for these people. I hope they're prepared.

[Yellow Evan]

Likely a hurricane given the cloud lines. I'd expect a peak of 90 knots/T5.0 at landfall, but this could be conservative.

[Alyono]

Likely a hurricane given the cloud lines. I'd expect a peak of 90 knots/T5.0 at landfall, but this could be conservative.

too aggressive with your CI. Still a 3.5 to me

90 kts may be the high end, unless this really takes off or moves slower than forecast. That siad, it won't take 90 kts to cause a death toll > 10,000. The 1985 cyclone was under hurricane strength and it killed 11,000+

[doomhaMwx]

Less than 24hrs away from making landfall over Chittagong division, Bangladesh...
Satellite presentation has markedly improved in the last several hours...

[doomhaMwx]

Will come ashore in SE Chittagong division...


JTWC Warning #7 (05-29-17 06z)




06z GFS also now agrees...

[doomhaMwx]

GDACS/JRC max storm surge height prediction for some areas of Chittagong division, based on JTWC Warning #7 issued at 05-29 06z (which shows landfall in SE Chittagong division)...
Max storm surge heights near 1.7m(5.7ft) predicted for Cox's Baxar and Fasiakhali on the morning hours of May 30 local date/time...

All times in the table are in UTC

[1900hurricane]

The current JTWC forecast looks alright to me considering the current structure. The large curved band without a classic developing core makes me think landfall intensity will be of low end category 1 intensity at most.

[SouthDadeFish]

The current JTWC forecast looks alright to me considering the current structure. The large curved band without a classic developing core makes me think landfall intensity will be of low end category 1 intensity at most.

Although the deep-convective structure is asymmetric, check out the 37 GHz imagery:



The low-level core is established.

[koishordj]

Is it going to hit Bangladesh ?

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