BoB: CYCLONE MORA

[Alyono]

may be a cyclone now

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/atmospher ... Bas208.png

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS has 967mb at landfall.

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF has it down to 960bmar at landfall in 66 hours.

[Yellow Evan]

JTWC spot on here

TPIO10 PGTW 271813

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94B (W OF ANDAMAN ISLANDS)

B. 27/1800Z

C. 13.97N

D. 88.71E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .35 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.0. MET OF 2.0. PT OF 1.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


LEMBKE

[Alyono]

I'd love to know what IMD is looking at

Is there even anyone on duty there right now? This is beyond a shadow of a doubt a depression, yet IMD issued nothing since 0600 UTC. Sincerely hope Bangladesh is not relying upon the IMD for information on the cyclone

[Alyono]

12z ECMWF has it down to 960bmar at landfall in 66 hours.

it also has winds of 80-85 kts

[Alyono]

shear still appears to be about 20 kts over the system. This is why I have rejected the rapid intensification scenarios so far. Often, these systems in the spring encounter stronger shear than forecast. Perhaps because the monsoon trough is moving north, where as in the fall, the monsoon trough is moving south, which reduces the shear with time

[Yellow Evan]

ASCAT had a 35 knot barb JTWC....

WTIO31 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (TWO) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/271421ZMAY2017//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (TWO) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 14.0N 88.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0N 88.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 14.7N 89.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 15.7N 90.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 17.4N 90.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 19.5N 91.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 24.8N 92.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 14.2N 88.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 516 NM SOUTH OF
CALCUTTA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KTS)
AND A 271504Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING 30 KNOT WINDS IN THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE ASCAT IMAGE IS ALSO THE BASIS FOR THE
INITIAL POSITION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
WITH AN EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL THAT IS FEEDING INTO A
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH, MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES (15-20KTS),
AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C). 02B WILL TRACK TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE WEST. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS REACHING
A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL. TC 02B IS EXPECTED
TO MAKE LANDFALL AFTER TAU 48 AND RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES
INLAND. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z, 280900Z,
281500Z AND 282100Z. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTIO21 PGTW
271430).//
NNNN

[Alyono]

ensembles are showing that a worst case track is as close to a certainty as one can get, right up the Ganges

[Alyono]

major split starting to occur between the ensembles vs a few of the global models and HWRF. HWRF insists this is going to Myanmar, as does the UKMET. Even the EC, which is in Bangladesh, has this too far east now. CMC is on crack.

Shockingly, the MU is performing the best, along with the ensemble probabilities, which even with the 12Z EC, indicate a track a little west of Chittagong remains most likely

[wxman57]

IMD says a moderate chance of a TD next 24 hours from this "well-marked" low. The 15Z ASCAT below indicates it's pretty well-marked, like nearly a TC well=marked.

[Alyono]

IMD says a moderate chance of a TD next 24 hours from this "well-marked" low. The 15Z ASCAT below indicates it's pretty well-marked, like nearly a TC well=marked.

IMD is notorious for placing lives in danger with their lack of warning. Many documented cases of that. Hope that is not the case this time. Bangladesh has no information on this cyclone on their website either

[Alyono]

to complete the required evacuation, Bangladesh needs to start NOW. We could be looking at a tidal surge approaching 10 feet in the Ganges Delta. That's about what the 1985 cyclone caused

[shah83]

Doesn't the most recent 2041z microwave show consolidating core?

[Alyono]

Doesn't the most recent 2041z microwave show consolidating core?

not then, but on conventional satellite since then, the system has become better organized

[shah83]

Wind shear certain seems to have started to let up.

[gatorcane]

Deep convection on the increase:

[doomhaMwx]

Interesting. So JTWC has issued TC warnings even though the warning threshold (except for NWPac) is 35kts...

[Alyono]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1985_Nort ... _0814Z.png

The 1985 cyclone has an eerily similar structure to this one

[Alyono]

and what is JT doing calling for weakening as this approaches Bangladesh? Every model shows intensification