EPAC: BEATRIZ - Post-Tropical

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Re: EPAC: TWO-E - Tropical Depression

#61 Postby cycloneye » Wed May 31, 2017 9:58 pm

Very brief window to be a TS.

Tropical Depression Two-E Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022017
1000 PM CDT Wed May 31 2017

Geostationary and microwave satellite imagery suggest that the
low-level circulation has become more symmetric and that the
convective organization has improved somewhat since the previous
advisory. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB
remain below tropical storm strength, so the initial intensity is
held at 30 kt.

Center fixes from recent microwave images show that the depression
is moving slightly faster than before or 045/5 kt. The cyclone is
expected to continue moving northeastward ahead of a mid- to
upper-level trough over northern Mexico. The 18z runs of the GFS
and HWRF have continued the trend of a faster northeastward motion
toward the coast of southeastern Mexico, and the NHC forecast has
followed suit. The new NHC track brings the center of the tropical
cyclone onshore within 24 hours, and shows a continued north-
northeastward motion until dissipation over southern Mexico in 48
hours, or sooner. It should be noted that ECMWF and GFS bring
moisture and the mid-level center northward over the Gulf of Mexico
late this week, but the low-level center is expected to dissipate
over the mountainous terrain of southern Mexico

The depression is over warm water and within an environment of
light to moderate shear. These conditions could allow for some
strengthening and the depression is forecast to become a
tropical storm before it reaches the coast of southern Mexico on
Thursday. After landfall, steady weakening is predicted and the
cyclone is now forecast to become a remnant low in 36 to 48 hours,
and dissipate shortly thereafter.

Heavy rains, flash flooding, and mudslides are likely to be the
biggest threat from this system even if it makes landfall as a
tropical storm. The new forecast has required the issuance of a
Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the coast of southeastern
Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 14.5N 97.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 15.1N 96.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 16.2N 96.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 02/1200Z 17.2N 95.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 03/0000Z 18.0N 95.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: EPAC: TWO-E - Tropical Depression

#62 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jun 01, 2017 1:07 am

SAB: 01/0545 UTC 14.8N 97.7W T3.0/3.0 02E -- East Pacific

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 01 JUN 2017 Time : 044500 UTC
Lat : 14:38:06 N Lon : 97:18:16 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 / 999.1mb/ 43.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.9 3.0 3.0


Looks like we have Beatriz.
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Re: EPAC: TWO-E - Tropical Depression

#63 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jun 01, 2017 1:16 am

Not sure this is worthy of a T2.5 yet actually.
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Re: EPAC: TWO-E - Tropical Depression

#64 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jun 01, 2017 1:21 am

Yellow Evan wrote:Not sure this is worthy of a T2.5 yet actually.


And uhh this might be the one time where my estimates are a bit too low

TXPZ24 KNES 010600
TCSENP

A. 02E (NONAME)

B. 01/0545Z

C. 14.8N

D. 97.7W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.0/3.0/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS/AMSU

H. REMARKS...CONVECTION WRAPS .7 ON LOG 10 SPIRAL FOR A DT OF
3.0. MET=3.0 AND PT=3.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

01/0110Z 14.8N 97.4W SSMIS
01/0357Z 14.8N 97.8W AMSU
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Re: EPAC: TWO-E - Tropical Depression

#65 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jun 01, 2017 1:50 am

EP, 02, 201706010615, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1500N, 9740W, , 3, 35, 2, 1005, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, TAFB, DM, I, 5, 2525 /////, , , GOES13, CSC, T,


EP, 02, 2017060106, , BEST, 0, 149N, 972W, 30, 1005, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 175, 70, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, TWO, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 003,


Interesting sequence of events here.
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Re: EPAC: TWO-E - Tropical Depression

#66 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jun 01, 2017 1:54 am

EP, 02, 201706010357, 30, AMSU, IP, , 1413N, 9745W, , 1, 32, 2, 1002, 2, MEAS, , , , , , , , , , , 2, , , E, NSOF, OPS, , , , , , , 1002, , METOPA, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 2, storm center extrapolated from t=-12 and t=0 adeck


ASCAT has a low bias so I'd go 35 here.
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Re: EPAC: TWO-E - Tropical Depression

#67 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jun 01, 2017 3:28 am

I'd be shocked if it's not upgraded.
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Re: EPAC: TWO-E - Tropical Depression

#68 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jun 01, 2017 5:02 am

No upgrade.

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 010832
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Two-E Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022017
400 AM CDT Thu Jun 01 2017

The cloud pattern does not appear to be better organized than
several hours ago. It still consists of a comma-shaped convective
band to the east with some disorganized clusters of thunderstorms
near the center. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB
supported tropical storm status, but given that there has been some
deterioration of the cloud pattern after the Dvorak estimates were
made, the initial intensity is kept at 30 kt in this advisory. The
depression only has a small opportunity to reach tropical storm
strength during the next 12 hours or so before the center reaches
the coast. In fact, a large portion of its broad circulation has
already moved inland. Once the center moves over the high terrain,
weakening is anticipated.

The center has been difficult to locate despite several microwave
passes during the past several hours. Given these low-confidence
fixes, the best estimate of the initial motion is toward the
north-northeast or 020 degrees at 6 kt. The cyclone is embedded
within the southerly flow ahead of an approaching mid- to
upper-level trough, and this pattern should continue to steer the
cyclone on the same general north-northeast track until dissipation
over the mountains of eastern Mexico. Most of the reliable track
guidance agree with this solution, although some models are faster
than others. After the dissipation of the low-level center, models
bring moisture and some mid-level vorticity northward over the Gulf
of Mexico.

Heavy rains, flash flooding, and mudslides continue to be
the biggest threat from this system. Since there is still a
possibility that the depression becomes a tropical storm before
landfall, the Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the coast of
southeastern Mexico is still in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 15.2N 97.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 15.9N 96.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 02/0600Z 17.0N 96.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 02/1800Z 18.0N 95.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: EPAC: TWO-E - Tropical Depression

#69 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 01, 2017 9:52 am

Tropical Depression Two-E Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022017
1000 AM CDT Thu Jun 01 2017

Tropical Depression Two-E has become a little less organized since
the previous advisory. The central convection has decreased
somewhat, with the primary convection now in a large band over the
southeastern semicircle. In addition, visible imagery suggests that
the low-level circulation is becoming less well defined. While
satellite intensity estimates are at tropical storm strength, the
initial intensity will remain 30 kt based on the decay in the cloud
pattern and continuity from the previous advisory.

While no intensification has occurred since yesterday, there is
still potential for the system to become a tropical storm before
landfall. After landfall, the low-level circulation should
dissipate by 36 h over the mountains of Mexico. The large-scale
models suggest that disturbed weather could occur over the western
Gulf of Mexico during the next few days in association with the
remnants of the depression.

Recent microwave imagery has helped better locate the center, and
the initial motion is 020/5. Southwesterly flow to the east of a
broad mid- to upper-level trough over northwestern Mexico should
steer the cyclone generally northeastward through landfall and
dissipation. The new forecast track is similar to, but slightly
slower than the previous track.

Heavy rains, flash flooding, and mudslides continue to be the
biggest threats from this system, and Puerto Angel, Mexico, has
reported more than 6 inches of rain since yesterday. Given the
potential for the depression to become a tropical storm, the
Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the coast of southeastern
Mexico remains in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 15.4N 97.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 16.0N 96.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 02/1200Z 16.9N 96.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: EPAC: TWO-E - Tropical Depression

#70 Postby Kazmit » Thu Jun 01, 2017 11:42 am

Still TS warnings up.
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Re: EPAC: TWO-E - Tropical Depression

#71 Postby Vince_and_Grace_fan » Thu Jun 01, 2017 12:34 pm

According to visible satellite images, the low level center is a bit southward of the latest estimation. And an ASCAT pass confirm it is a TS.
(I think it reached TS strenght around 0 UTC already, and peaked around 6-12 UTC with 40 kt.)

Image
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Re: EPAC: TWO-E - Tropical Depression

#72 Postby wxman57 » Thu Jun 01, 2017 12:40 pm

Convection has collapsed since that 1543Z ASCAT. You can see an outflow boundary moving SE away from the center. It appears weaker than earlier today, so the NHC may keep it a TD on their next advisory.
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Re: EPAC: TWO-E - Tropical Depression

#73 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 01, 2017 12:44 pm

Tropical Storm BEATRIZ

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ JUST SOUTH OF THE
COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 97.0W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM WSW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM ESE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...70 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
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Re: EPAC: TWO-E - Tropical Depression

#74 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jun 01, 2017 12:45 pm

Given low bias of ASCAT, 40 is fine.
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Re: EPAC: BEATRIZ - Tropical Storm

#75 Postby NDG » Thu Jun 01, 2017 1:00 pm

Looks like it will make landfall in the next few hours.
Very weird looking ASCAT from earlier this morning.
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Re: EPAC: BEATRIZ - Tropical Storm

#76 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 01, 2017 3:53 pm

Tropical Storm Beatriz Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022017
400 PM CDT Thu Jun 01 2017

ASCAT scatterometer data near 1600 UTC showed an area of 35-40 kt
winds within 30 n mi of the center in the western semicircle.
Based on this, the depression has been upgraded to Tropical Storm
Beatriz. The center is nearing the coast at this time and the
central convection is poorly organized, so no additional
intensification is anticipated before landfall. Beatriz should
weaken quickly over mountainous terrain after landfall, and it is
forecast to dissipate by 36 h. The latest ECMWF and Canadian model
runs suggest the possibility the remnants of the cyclone could
regenerate over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. However, strong
vertical wind shear forecast over the Gulf by all of the large-scale
models makes this an uncertain scenario at best.

Even with the help of visible imagery and scatterometer data, there
is some spread in the center fix locations. The initial motion is
thus a rather uncertain 025/4. Southwesterly flow to the east of a
broad mid- to upper-level trough over northwestern Mexico should
steer the cyclone generally northeastward through landfall and
dissipation. The new forecast track is again similar to, but
slightly slower than the previous track.

Heavy rains, flash flooding, and mudslides will continue to be the
biggest threats from this system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 15.5N 96.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 16.3N 96.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 02/1800Z 17.4N 95.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: EPAC: BEATRIZ - Tropical Storm

#77 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 01, 2017 9:40 pm

Tropical Storm Beatriz Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022017
1000 PM CDT Thu Jun 01 2017

Recent microwave imagery and surface observations from southern
Mexico indicate that the center of Beatriz made landfall just west
of Puerto Angel around 0000 UTC. A ship just east of the center
reported 40 kt winds around 2100 UTC, but since the circulation
has crossed the coast, it is assumed some weakening has occurred
and the initial intensity is set at 35 kt.

Beatriz is forecast to move north-northeastward in southwesterly
flow to the east of a mid- to upper-level trough over northwestern
Mexico. This should take the cyclone farther inland and rapid
weakening is expected tonight. The low-level circulation should
dissipate over the high terrain over southeastern Mexico on Friday.

The primary concern with Beatriz and its remnants remains heavy
rainfall that is expected to continue over portions of southeastern
Mexico during the next day or two. These rains will likely produce
flash flooding and mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 16.0N 96.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
12H 02/1200Z 16.9N 96.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: EPAC: BEATRIZ - Tropical Storm

#78 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jun 02, 2017 2:34 am

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 020538
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Beatriz Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022017
100 AM CDT Fri Jun 02 2017

...BEATRIZ WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 96.4W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM N OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning
along the Pacific coast of Mexico.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Beatriz
was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 96.4 West. Beatriz
is moving toward the north-northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue today. On the forecast
track, the center of Beatriz is expected to move farther inland over
the state of Oaxaca through the day.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Beatriz is
expected to dissipate later today over the mountains of southeastern
Mexico.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Beatriz is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 8 to 12 inches across the Mexican state of Oaxaca
with isolated maximum totals of 20 inches possible. Lighter
amounts in the 1 to 3 inch range are possible across the southern
portion of the Mexican state of Veracruz. This rainfall is likely
to produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: EPAC: BEATRIZ - Post-Tropical

#79 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 02, 2017 9:43 am

Last advisory.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Beatriz Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022017
1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 02 2017

Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that Beatriz
has degenerated to a poorly-defined remnant low over southern
Mexico, and this will be the last advisory. While the low should
dissipate over land tonight, the remnants of Beatriz are expected to
move over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or
two, where current indications are that strong upper-level winds
should prevent re-development.

Even after dissipation, lingering moisture is likely to contribute
to continued heavy rainfall and possible flash floods and mudslides
for another day or two over southern and southeastern Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 17.2N 96.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 03/0000Z 18.1N 95.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: EPAC: BEATRIZ - Post-Tropical

#80 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jun 02, 2017 12:05 pm

Weak systems can cause a good deal of damage and fatalities and this has occured in Oaxaca,Mexico.

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/870660414346072065


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