EPAC: BEATRIZ - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

EP, 91, 2017052812, , BEST, 0, 115N, 996W, 15, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS003, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 003,
EP, 91, 2017052818, , BEST, 0, 115N, 995W, 15, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS003, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 003,
EP, 91, 2017052900, , BEST, 0, 115N, 994W, 15, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS003, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 003,
EP, 91, 2017052906, , BEST, 0, 115N, 993W, 15, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS003, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 003,
EP, 91, 2017052912, , BEST, 0, 115N, 992W, 20, 1010, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 100, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 003, SPAWNINVEST, ep732017 to ep912017,

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon May 29 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A large low pressure system is located a few hundred miles south
of Acapulco, Mexico. Cloudiness and showers have become a little
better organized since yesterday, and gradual development of this
disturbance is possible during the next several days while it
drifts generally northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

[Kingarabian]

Euro showing it tangling up with shear in 48hrs. Recovers after that. Fairly modest Tropical Storm seems likely. May reach hurricane strength if it can find a sustained pocket of relaxed shear.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS doesn't develop this at all. GFS-P brings it inland over MX in 5 days as a strengthening storm.

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP912017 05/29/17 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 26 30 35 43 50 56 56 55 54 54 52
V (KT) LAND 20 22 26 30 35 43 50 56 56 55 54 54 52
V (KT) LGEM 20 21 21 23 24 28 31 33 33 32 31 31 31
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 10 8 8 5 5 6 11 12 13 9 8 8 10
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -8 -7 -8 -5 -5 -1 -2 0 -2 -2 -7
SHEAR DIR 85 93 89 96 114 189 200 189 205 190 193 168 166
SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.3 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5
POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 158 160 160 158 155 151 151 153 153 154 155
200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.5 -52.4 -52.9 -53.1 -52.6 -53.2 -52.5 -53.2 -52.6 -52.9 -52.2 -52.5
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 6 6 7 6 8 7 9 7 9 8
700-500 MB RH 82 81 81 81 80 79 75 68 65 62 62 62 60
MODEL VTX (KT) 4 5 5 5 6 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 6
850 MB ENV VOR 37 45 50 54 52 68 60 64 48 48 44 47 35
200 MB DIV 105 123 132 101 98 109 103 124 52 31 39 53 35
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
LAND (KM) 516 481 433 379 325 249 214 206 239 274 306 303 304
LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.8 12.2 12.7 13.2 14.1 14.7 15.0 14.8 14.5 14.1 14.0 13.9
LONG(DEG W) 99.2 99.1 98.9 98.9 98.9 99.3 99.9 100.4 100.7 100.8 100.6 100.3 100.1
STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 5 5 5 4 4 1 2 3 1 2 1
HEAT CONTENT 39 37 34 34 33 29 26 26 26 28 30 30 30

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 12.2

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -1. 5. 14. 23. 30. 35. 37. 38. 38.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 3. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 15. 23. 30. 36. 36. 35. 34. 34. 32.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.5 99.2

** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912017 INVEST 05/29/17 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.90 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.67 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 35.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.33 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 111.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.77 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.52 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): -0.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.90 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912017 INVEST 05/29/17 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP912017 05/29/17 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 26 30 34 41 49 53 54 52 51 51 50
V (KT) LAND 20 22 26 30 34 41 49 53 54 52 51 51 50
V (KT) LGEM 20 21 21 23 24 28 30 31 31 30 29 29 30
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 9 8 7 6 4 7 13 13 12 9 9 9 10
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -8 -8 -8 -7 -4 -5 -1 -2 0 -3 -5 -6
SHEAR DIR 92 85 85 106 158 198 195 201 205 188 190 167 174
SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.3 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5
POT. INT. (KT) 156 158 160 160 160 158 155 151 151 153 153 154 155
200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -52.4 -52.3
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 7 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 9
700-500 MB RH 82 81 81 81 79 78 72 68 64 63 61 61 59
MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 6 7 6 8 8 8 7 7 6 6
850 MB ENV VOR 42 42 47 49 56 65 59 65 43 55 39 46 25
200 MB DIV 123 133 106 101 103 113 103 95 34 42 38 58 36
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
LAND (KM) 503 468 411 357 308 238 194 202 231 271 287 284 290
LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.9 12.4 12.9 13.4 14.2 14.9 15.0 14.8 14.4 14.2 14.1 14.0
LONG(DEG W) 99.1 99.0 98.9 98.9 99.0 99.3 99.9 100.3 100.5 100.5 100.4 100.1 100.0
STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 5 5 5 5 3 2 2 2 1 1 1
HEAT CONTENT 38 36 34 33 32 29 26 26 26 28 28 29 30

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 511 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 12.7

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -1. 5. 14. 23. 30. 35. 37. 38. 38.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 3. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 3. 3. 1. 1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 14. 21. 29. 33. 34. 32. 31. 31. 30.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.6 99.1

** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP912017 INVEST 05/29/17 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.90 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.69 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 34.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.32 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 113.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.77 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.54 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): -4.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.90 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912017 INVEST 05/29/17 18 UTC ##

[cycloneye]

Kingarabian,looks like shear will not be too strong if the SHIP data is right.

[Kingarabian]

Kingarabian,looks like shear will not be too strong if the SHIP data is right.

If it's right. Showed low shear values for Adrian, but we all saw what happened there.

[gatorcane]

The latest GFS shows some mid-level dry air over Mexico off to the NW that might be enough to halt any significant development since development takes place so close to land. This could develop into a tropical storm but a hurricane that the Euro shows seems doubtful without other models showing something similar. Even the normally over-zealous CMC has dropped the idea of a hurricane out of this. UKMET with weak development now also, maybe a TS. 60% chance of development which NHC has seems to be a good percentage with the percentage probably going up over the next day or two.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon May 29 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of
Acapulco, Mexico, is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms that extends from near the Gulf of Tehuantepec
southwestward for several hundred miles. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for some gradual development during
the next several days while the low drifts generally northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Brown

[Yellow Evan]

The latest GFS shows some mid-level dry air over Mexico off to the NW that might be enough to halt any significant development since development takes place so close to land. This could develop into a tropical storm but a hurricane that the Euro shows seems doubtful without other models showing something similar. Even the normally over-zealous CMC has dropped the idea of a hurricane out of this. UKMET with weak development now also, maybe a TS. 60% chance of development which NHC has seems to be a good percentage with the percentage probably going up over the next day or two.

CMC isn't over-zealous in this basin usually; it likes to show a bunch of weaker system.

[weathaguyry]

I am thinking that we may see something similar to Adrian in terms of strength, but with Adrian shear was mainly the problem, but it still had a nice LLC, I think 91E will have a hard time consolidating, and be more broad. IMO the conditions in the EPAC have been very unimpressive, we had one messy Tropical Storm and possibly another one on the way, during 2014 or 2015 Adrian would've had no problem becoming a hurricane

[Yellow Evan]

I am thinking that we may see something similar to Adrian in terms of strength, but with Adrian shear was mainly the problem, but it still had a nice LLC, I think 91E will have a hard time consolidating, and be more broad. IMO the conditions in the EPAC have been very unimpressive, we had one messy Tropical Storm and possibly another one on the way, during 2014 or 2015 Adrian would've had no problem becoming a hurricane

It's May 29, and this invest hasn't even run its course yet. Let's not jump onto conclusions.

[Kingarabian]

I am thinking that we may see something similar to Adrian in terms of strength, but with Adrian shear was mainly the problem, but it still had a nice LLC, I think 91E will have a hard time consolidating, and be more broad. IMO the conditions in the EPAC have been very unimpressive, we had one messy Tropical Storm and possibly another one on the way, during 2014 or 2015 Adrian would've had no problem becoming a hurricane

See 2016, and when the hurricane season in the EPAC got going.

[Yellow Evan]

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending from near the Gulf
of Tehuantepec southwestward for several hundred miles are
associated with a broad area of low pressure. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development
of this disturbance during the next several days while it
drifts generally northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[cycloneye]

A few tweets from Levi.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/869563537471000576



 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/869568697022730240


 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/869568378490564612


 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/869568378490564612

[cycloneye]

It looks like 91E is trying to get better organized.

[Kingarabian]

It looks like 91E is trying to get better organized.

[mg]http://i.imgur.com/UczoNfN.gif[/img]

Yes, it's just very broad. GFS now making a strong TS.

[cycloneye]

Up to 50%-80%.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue May 30 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Satellite imagery this morning indicates that shower activity
associated with a low pressure area centered about 275 miles
southeast of Acapulco, Mexico, has become better organized.
Conditions appear favorable for additional development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days
as the system drifts northward toward the coast of Mexico.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains should spread over
the coast of southeastern and southern Mexico during the next
several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

Half of models develop into a weak Tropical Storm.

Location: 13.5°N 98.2°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1010 mb
Radius of Circulation: 150 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 100 NM