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BeRad954 wrote:Total noob here but is there a possibility 91E gets sucked North East into the Gulf? Or would the High over the central US pinch it off?
TheStormExpert wrote:BeRad954 wrote:Total noob here but is there a possibility 91E gets sucked North East into the Gulf? Or would the High over the central US pinch it off?
The latest GFS and Euro runs do show it getting pulled NE into the Western Gulf of Mexico though shear is too strong to allow redevelopment.
000
WTPZ42 KNHC 311445
TCDEP2
Tropical Depression Two-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022017
1000 AM CDT Wed May 31 2017
The low pressure area located to the southeast of Acapulco, Mexico,
has developed multiple bands of deep convection, and various
satellite data suggest the system has a well-defined circulation.
Based on these, the system is designated as Tropical Depression
Two-E. The initial intensity of 25 kt is based on current
satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB along with earlier
scatterometer data.
The initial motion is 035/3. A mid- to upper-level trough seen in
water vapor imagery over northern Mexico is expected to steer the
cyclone slowly northeastward for the next 36 h or so. After
that, there is significant divergence in the track guidance. The
GFS, Canadian, and HWRF models move the cyclone inland over
southeastern Mexico in 48-60 h, while the ECMWF and UKMET show the
system stalling over the Pacific as a weak mid-level ridge builds
to the north. The latter part of the track forecast somewhat
splits the difference between these two solutions, showing the
cyclone remaining over the Pacific but closer to the coast of
Mexico than forecast by the ECMWF and UKMET.
The depression is in an environment of 10-15 kt of southerly
vertical wind shear, and the large-scale models suggests that this
condition should persist for the next 36-48 h. After that, while
the shear may decrease the cyclone is likely to be close enough to
the mountains of southern Mexico to inhibit development. The
intensity forecast, which lies near the upper edge of the intensity
guidance, calls for slow strengthening for the first 48 h followed
by little change in strength through the remainder of the forecast
period.
The forecast track, intensity, and wind radii require a Tropical
Storm Watch for a portion of the coast of Mexico at this time.
However, heavy rains and freshwater flooding are likely to be the
biggest threats from this system even if it makes landfall as a
tropical storm.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 31/1500Z 13.9N 97.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 14.2N 97.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 14.6N 97.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 14.9N 97.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 15.1N 96.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 15.5N 96.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 15.5N 97.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 05/1200Z 15.5N 98.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
$$
Forecaster Beven
Frank2 wrote:Appears to be more of a ML circulation than at the surface, and likely explains why the NHC started it as a TD, but the banding looks considerable east through south, so probably a TS later today or tonight*.
*My own interpretation and not that of the National Hurricane Center - see http://www.nhc.noaa.gov for official information.
Kingarabian wrote:HWRF makes this a hurricane. GFS, a moderate TS. Euro fails to develop it further than it already is now.
gatorcane wrote:I see the ECMWF suddenly abandoned the hurricane idea. So looking back GFS never really picked up on development until only recently (which ended up being wrong) but the ECMWF was too bullish. So as is usually the case, go with a consensus of the two models.
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