EPAC: CALVIN - Remnants

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Calvin Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032017
400 AM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017

The cloud pattern associated with Calvin has rapidly deteriorated
overnight. The low-level center, if it still exists, appears to be
located inland over the Mexican state of Oaxaca, while the mid-level
center has moved westward along the immediate coast of southern
Mexico. It is quite possible that the low-level center has
dissipated, but advisories will continue until visible satellite
imagery provides a better assessment later this morning.

Surface observations and earlier scatterometer data confirm
that Calvin has quickly weakened. Rapid weakening should continue
this morning and Calvin is expected to dissipate over the
mountainous terrain of southern Mexico later today.

Calvin and its remnants are expected to produce additional heavy
rainfall over portions of southern Mexico for another day or so.
These rains are likely to produce life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 16.3N 96.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 16.7N 97.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

Bye.

Remnants Of Calvin Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032017
1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017

Early morning visible satellite images and surface observations
confirm that the surface circulation of Calvin has dissipated over
the rugged terrain of southern Mexico, and therefore this is the
last NHC advisory on Calvin. Satellite images also show a fairly
large convective area located a couple of hundred miles west of
where Calvin dissipated. This feature is moving quickly westward and
appears to be associated with the mid-level remnants of the tropical
cyclone.

Even though Calvin has dissipated, its remnants are expected to
produce additional heavy rainfall over portions of southern Mexico
for another day or so. These rains are likely to produce
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 16.5N 96.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi