http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep3+shtml/203827.shtml?cone#contents
EPAC: CALVIN - Remnants
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StormChaser75
- Tropical Depression
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hurricanes1234
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Re: EPAC: Tropical Depression THREE-E
Convection is meagre throughout. I'd be surprised if this does anything outside of the Adrian / Beatriz pattern, and it hasn't got that much time either.
Hopefully the pattern changes and we get more out-to-sea storms that don't harm anyone.
Hopefully the pattern changes and we get more out-to-sea storms that don't harm anyone.
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Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: Tropical Depression THREE-E
000
WTPZ33 KNHC 112349
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Three-E Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032017
700 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017
...DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN MEXICO...
...BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 94.8W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Pacific coast of southeastern Mexico from Boca De Pijijiapan
to Punta Maldonado.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three-E
was located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 94.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest is expected later tonight, and that motion
should continue through Monday. On the forecast track, the center
of the tropical cyclone will be near the coast of Mexico in the
warning area by Monday night.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is expected, and the depression is
forecast to become a tropical storm on Monday.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches across southern Guatemala and the
Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and Guerrero, with maximum
totals of 20 inches possible. These rains may produce
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within portions of the warning area on Monday.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Stewart
WTPZ33 KNHC 112349
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Three-E Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032017
700 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017
...DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN MEXICO...
...BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 94.8W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Pacific coast of southeastern Mexico from Boca De Pijijiapan
to Punta Maldonado.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three-E
was located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 94.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest is expected later tonight, and that motion
should continue through Monday. On the forecast track, the center
of the tropical cyclone will be near the coast of Mexico in the
warning area by Monday night.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is expected, and the depression is
forecast to become a tropical storm on Monday.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches across southern Guatemala and the
Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and Guerrero, with maximum
totals of 20 inches possible. These rains may produce
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within portions of the warning area on Monday.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Stewart
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cycloneye
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: Tropical Depression THREE-E
Tropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032017
1000 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017
Deep convection associated with the depression has waned
considerably since the previous advisory due to the entrainment of
dry air and moderate easterly vertical wind shear, resulting in the
low-level circulation center now being fully exposed. Dvorak
satellite intensity estimates are T1.5 from TAFB and T1.0 from SAB,
so the initial intensity is being maintained at 30 kt, which is
probably generous.
The initial motion estimate is 335/04 kt. After a northward jog
during the previous 6-hour period, the depression appears to have
slowed down and turned back toward the north-northwest during the
past few hours. The cyclone is expected to gradually turn toward the
northwest tonight and early Monday, and possibly even turn toward
the west-northwest by Monday night as a ridge to the northeast of
the cyclone builds slowly westward. However, most of the reliable
guidance models indicate that the steering currents are expected to
be weak at less than 5 kt for the next 48 hours. As a result, some
erratic motion will be possible. The official track forecast lies to
the right of the previous advisory track and a little to the left of
the consensus models to account for the slower initial motion.
The depression is forecast to remain over SSTs of about 29 deg C
and under the influence of moderate easterly shear of around 15 kt
for the next 24-36 hours. Therefore, some gradual strengthening is
expected, especially given the tight, low-level inner-core structure
noted in visible and other satellite channels. The previous
intensity forecast calling for the cyclone to reach tropical storm
status before landfall occurs has been retained in this advisory,
and the official intensity forecast closely follows the consensus
model IVCN. Although the cyclone is expected to be inland at 36 and
48 hours, tropical depression status is shown at those times due to
the possibility of 30-kt winds remaining along or just offshore of
the southern coast of Mexico. The system is expected to dissipate
over the mountainous terrain of southeastern Mexico by 72 hours.
The primary hazard associated with this system will be heavy
rainfall, which could cause flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous terrain.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/0300Z 15.2N 94.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 15.6N 95.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 16.0N 95.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 13/1200Z 16.3N 96.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 14/0000Z 16.4N 96.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Stewart
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032017
1000 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017
Deep convection associated with the depression has waned
considerably since the previous advisory due to the entrainment of
dry air and moderate easterly vertical wind shear, resulting in the
low-level circulation center now being fully exposed. Dvorak
satellite intensity estimates are T1.5 from TAFB and T1.0 from SAB,
so the initial intensity is being maintained at 30 kt, which is
probably generous.
The initial motion estimate is 335/04 kt. After a northward jog
during the previous 6-hour period, the depression appears to have
slowed down and turned back toward the north-northwest during the
past few hours. The cyclone is expected to gradually turn toward the
northwest tonight and early Monday, and possibly even turn toward
the west-northwest by Monday night as a ridge to the northeast of
the cyclone builds slowly westward. However, most of the reliable
guidance models indicate that the steering currents are expected to
be weak at less than 5 kt for the next 48 hours. As a result, some
erratic motion will be possible. The official track forecast lies to
the right of the previous advisory track and a little to the left of
the consensus models to account for the slower initial motion.
The depression is forecast to remain over SSTs of about 29 deg C
and under the influence of moderate easterly shear of around 15 kt
for the next 24-36 hours. Therefore, some gradual strengthening is
expected, especially given the tight, low-level inner-core structure
noted in visible and other satellite channels. The previous
intensity forecast calling for the cyclone to reach tropical storm
status before landfall occurs has been retained in this advisory,
and the official intensity forecast closely follows the consensus
model IVCN. Although the cyclone is expected to be inland at 36 and
48 hours, tropical depression status is shown at those times due to
the possibility of 30-kt winds remaining along or just offshore of
the southern coast of Mexico. The system is expected to dissipate
over the mountainous terrain of southeastern Mexico by 72 hours.
The primary hazard associated with this system will be heavy
rainfall, which could cause flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous terrain.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/0300Z 15.2N 94.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 15.6N 95.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 16.0N 95.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 13/1200Z 16.3N 96.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 14/0000Z 16.4N 96.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
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- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: EPAC: Tropical Depression THREE-E
GFS, HWRF, GFDL show this becoming a TS within 21hrs. But it looks like it's about to poof.
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RIP Kobe Bryant
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139021
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: EPAC: Tropical Depression THREE-E
Tropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032017
400 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017
Satellite imagery indicates that the depression is poorly organized
at this time, with episodic bursts of convection occurring near the
center and in the northwestern semicircle. This is likely due to
the influence of moderate easterly vertical wind shear. Satellite
intensity estimates are unchanged from earlier, and there have been
no observation from near the center since the last advisory. Based
on the above, the initial intensity remains 30 kt.
The motion has been somewhat erratic, and the best estimate of a
longer-term motion is 325/3. The depression is in a area of light
steering currents south of a weakness in the subtropical ridge
caused by a mid- to upper-level trough over the western Gulf of
Mexico. The guidance agrees that the cyclone should move slowly
west-northwestward to northwestward during the next 36-48 h, with
the center likely to move inland over southeastern Mexico in 24 h or
less and then remaining inland. The new forecast track is similar
to, but just south of, the previous forecast and it lies near the
center of the guidance envelope. It should be noted that due to
the overall slow forward speed the center could continue to move
erratically between now and landfall.
The cyclone is expected to remain over warm water in an environment
of moderate shear until landfall, and thus gradual intensification
to tropical-storm strength is expected. This portion of the
intensity forecast is at the upper edge of the guidance, and an
alternative forecast scenario is that the cyclone never becomes a
tropical storm. The intensity forecast has been changed after
landfall to show a faster dissipation over the mountains of Mexico
in agreement with the various dynamical models.
The primary hazard associated with this system will be heavy
rainfall, which could cause flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous terrain. The eastern portion of the Tropical Storm
Warning could be discontinued later today if the cyclone continues
moving away from the area.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/0900Z 15.3N 95.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 15.7N 95.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 16.0N 96.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 13/1800Z 16.4N 96.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Beven
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032017
400 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017
Satellite imagery indicates that the depression is poorly organized
at this time, with episodic bursts of convection occurring near the
center and in the northwestern semicircle. This is likely due to
the influence of moderate easterly vertical wind shear. Satellite
intensity estimates are unchanged from earlier, and there have been
no observation from near the center since the last advisory. Based
on the above, the initial intensity remains 30 kt.
The motion has been somewhat erratic, and the best estimate of a
longer-term motion is 325/3. The depression is in a area of light
steering currents south of a weakness in the subtropical ridge
caused by a mid- to upper-level trough over the western Gulf of
Mexico. The guidance agrees that the cyclone should move slowly
west-northwestward to northwestward during the next 36-48 h, with
the center likely to move inland over southeastern Mexico in 24 h or
less and then remaining inland. The new forecast track is similar
to, but just south of, the previous forecast and it lies near the
center of the guidance envelope. It should be noted that due to
the overall slow forward speed the center could continue to move
erratically between now and landfall.
The cyclone is expected to remain over warm water in an environment
of moderate shear until landfall, and thus gradual intensification
to tropical-storm strength is expected. This portion of the
intensity forecast is at the upper edge of the guidance, and an
alternative forecast scenario is that the cyclone never becomes a
tropical storm. The intensity forecast has been changed after
landfall to show a faster dissipation over the mountains of Mexico
in agreement with the various dynamical models.
The primary hazard associated with this system will be heavy
rainfall, which could cause flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous terrain. The eastern portion of the Tropical Storm
Warning could be discontinued later today if the cyclone continues
moving away from the area.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/0900Z 15.3N 95.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 15.7N 95.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 16.0N 96.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 13/1800Z 16.4N 96.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Beven
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Yellow Evan
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- Age: 25
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Re: EPAC: Tropical Depression THREE-E
* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE *
* THREE EP032017 06/12/17 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 34 37 43 48 52 56 58 60 62 64
V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 29 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27
V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 16 16 16 17 15 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 2 5 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 67 67 63 61 76 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 155 154 154 156 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.9 -51.7 -52.1 -52.4 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 10 9 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 78 76 77 75 75 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 31 50 72 77 78 87 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 64 86 99 90 75 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 71 43 15 -11 -29 -58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.5 15.7 15.9 16.0 16.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 95.4 95.6 95.8 96.1 96.4 97.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 3 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 16 15 10 3 34 38 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 6.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 20. 25. 28. 30. 31. 30.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 7. 13. 18. 22. 26. 28. 30. 32. 34.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.3 95.4
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032017 THREE 06/12/17 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.16 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 15.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.15 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.61 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 31.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.86 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032017 THREE 06/12/17 12 UTC ##
## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING
* IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE *
* THREE EP032017 06/12/17 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 34 37 43 48 52 56 58 60 62 64
V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 29 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27
V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR (KT) 16 16 16 17 15 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 2 5 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 67 67 63 61 76 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 155 154 154 156 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.9 -51.7 -52.1 -52.4 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 10 9 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 78 76 77 75 75 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 31 50 72 77 78 87 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 64 86 99 90 75 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 71 43 15 -11 -29 -58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.5 15.7 15.9 16.0 16.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 95.4 95.6 95.8 96.1 96.4 97.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 3 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 16 15 10 3 34 38 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 6.0
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 20. 25. 28. 30. 31. 30.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 7. 13. 18. 22. 26. 28. 30. 32. 34.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.3 95.4
** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032017 THREE 06/12/17 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.16 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 15.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.15 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.61 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 31.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.86 999.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032017 THREE 06/12/17 12 UTC ##
## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: Tropical Depression THREE-E
Tropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032017
1000 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017
The tropical cyclone has changed little in organization since
yesterday, and Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB remain
at 30 kt which will be the advisory intensity. There is still a
small window of opportunity for the system to strengthen into a
tropical storm before the center reaches the coast. However,
moderate easterly shear should prevent a significant increase in
intensity. The official intensity forecast continues to be close to
the model consensus.
Even with the first visible images, the center is difficult to
locate and the initial motion estimate is an uncertain 310/3 kt.
The depression is in an environment of weak steering currents, but
the global models show some increased ridging to the northwest of
the tropical cyclone over the next day or so. This should induce a
west-northwestward motion that would bring the center near/over the
coast by tonight. The official track forecast is similar to the
previous one and close to the dynamical model consensus.
The primary hazard associated with this system is heavy rainfall,
which will likely lead to flash flooding and mudslides, especially
in regions of mountainous terrain. The eastern portion of the
Tropical Storm Warning could be discontinued later today if the
cyclone continues moving away from the area.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/1500Z 15.4N 95.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 15.7N 95.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 16.0N 96.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 14/0000Z 16.3N 97.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032017
1000 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017
The tropical cyclone has changed little in organization since
yesterday, and Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB remain
at 30 kt which will be the advisory intensity. There is still a
small window of opportunity for the system to strengthen into a
tropical storm before the center reaches the coast. However,
moderate easterly shear should prevent a significant increase in
intensity. The official intensity forecast continues to be close to
the model consensus.
Even with the first visible images, the center is difficult to
locate and the initial motion estimate is an uncertain 310/3 kt.
The depression is in an environment of weak steering currents, but
the global models show some increased ridging to the northwest of
the tropical cyclone over the next day or so. This should induce a
west-northwestward motion that would bring the center near/over the
coast by tonight. The official track forecast is similar to the
previous one and close to the dynamical model consensus.
The primary hazard associated with this system is heavy rainfall,
which will likely lead to flash flooding and mudslides, especially
in regions of mountainous terrain. The eastern portion of the
Tropical Storm Warning could be discontinued later today if the
cyclone continues moving away from the area.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/1500Z 15.4N 95.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 15.7N 95.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 16.0N 96.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 14/0000Z 16.3N 97.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: Tropical Depression THREE-E
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Kingarabian
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Re: EPAC: Tropical Depression THREE-E
12/1745 UTC 15.6N 95.2W T2.5/2.5 03E -- East Pacific
We should have Calvin.
We should have Calvin.
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: Tropical Depression THREE-E
Kingarabian wrote:12/1745 UTC 15.6N 95.2W T2.5/2.5 03E -- East Pacific
We should have Calvin.
CALVIN!!
EP, 03, 2017061218, , BEST, 0, 155N, 954W, 35, 1005, TS
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Kingarabian
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Re: EPAC: Tropical Depression THREE-E
cycloneye wrote:Kingarabian wrote:12/1745 UTC 15.6N 95.2W T2.5/2.5 03E -- East Pacific
We should have Calvin.
CALVIN!!
EP, 03, 2017061218, , BEST, 0, 155N, 954W, 35, 1005, TS
3 for 3!!
Haha, but I remember we would go "3 for 3" or "4 for 4" depending on whether we got a major hurricane or not. Conditions have been marginable at best. But it's still June so conditions in the far eastern Pacific still have time to become favorable.
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Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: Tropical Depression THREE-E
Kingarabian wrote:cycloneye wrote:Kingarabian wrote:12/1745 UTC 15.6N 95.2W T2.5/2.5 03E -- East Pacific
We should have Calvin.
CALVIN!!
EP, 03, 2017061218, , BEST, 0, 155N, 954W, 35, 1005, TS
3 for 3!!
Haha, but I remember we would go "3 for 3" or "4 for 4" depending on whether we got a major hurricane or not. Conditions have been marginable at best. But it's still June so conditions in the far eastern Pacific still have time to become favorable.
lol that was in 2011 where we set the record for most hurricanes in a row to start off the year. 2011 could have genuinely had an 11/11/6 season but Fernanda 11 was 5 knots short.
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Kingarabian
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Re: EPAC: Tropical Depression THREE-E
SHIPS is not too crazy with its hurricane forecast if it simply had more time to tuck the LLC properly and let the CDO expand to the north.
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 JUN 2017 Time : 181500 UTC
Lat : 15:29:45 N Lon : 95:24:19 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 / 997.7mb/ 45.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.0 3.2 3.5
Center Temp : -50.7C Cloud Region Temp : -61.1C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 JUN 2017 Time : 181500 UTC
Lat : 15:29:45 N Lon : 95:24:19 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 / 997.7mb/ 45.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.0 3.2 3.5
Center Temp : -50.7C Cloud Region Temp : -61.1C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: CALVIN - Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm Calvin Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032017
400 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017
The cloud pattern of the tropical cyclone has become a little better
organized today, with a convective band wrapping about halfway
around the southern portion of the circulation. Accordingly,
Dvorak T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB have increased to 2.5,
corresponding to an intensity of 35 kt. On this basis, the system
is being named. Although a little more intensification is possible
before the center crosses the coast, no significant increase in
strength is anticipated. After landfall, the tropical cyclone will
likely weaken rapidly over the mountainous terrain of southeastern
Mexico.
Although the system essentially stalled earlier today, visible
satellite images and the Puerto Angel radar from the meteorological
service of Mexico indicate that a slow west-northwestward motion
has resumed, and the motion is now about 300/02 kt. Although
steering currents remain weak, the dynamical models indicate that
there should be enough mid-level ridging to the north of Calvin to
push the system west-northwestward into southeastern Mexico. The
official track forecast is close to the latest ECMWF solution.
The main danger from Calvin will come from heavy rains, and the
associated threats of flash flooding and mudslides, particularly in
areas of mountainous terrain.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/2100Z 15.5N 95.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 15.8N 96.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 16.0N 96.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 14/0600Z 16.2N 97.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032017
400 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017
The cloud pattern of the tropical cyclone has become a little better
organized today, with a convective band wrapping about halfway
around the southern portion of the circulation. Accordingly,
Dvorak T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB have increased to 2.5,
corresponding to an intensity of 35 kt. On this basis, the system
is being named. Although a little more intensification is possible
before the center crosses the coast, no significant increase in
strength is anticipated. After landfall, the tropical cyclone will
likely weaken rapidly over the mountainous terrain of southeastern
Mexico.
Although the system essentially stalled earlier today, visible
satellite images and the Puerto Angel radar from the meteorological
service of Mexico indicate that a slow west-northwestward motion
has resumed, and the motion is now about 300/02 kt. Although
steering currents remain weak, the dynamical models indicate that
there should be enough mid-level ridging to the north of Calvin to
push the system west-northwestward into southeastern Mexico. The
official track forecast is close to the latest ECMWF solution.
The main danger from Calvin will come from heavy rains, and the
associated threats of flash flooding and mudslides, particularly in
areas of mountainous terrain.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/2100Z 15.5N 95.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 15.8N 96.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 16.0N 96.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 14/0600Z 16.2N 97.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Steve820
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Re: EPAC: CALVIN - Tropical Storm
I'm glad we have Calvin already even though it is the 3rd TS in a row. This is looking like almost a complete copy of Beatriz (weak TS striking southern Mexico), hopefully it doesn't repeat the deaths that Beatriz caused. I hope a hurricane comes soon (preferably a fishspinner hurricane).
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Hurricanes are an amazing natural phenomena. While many are spiraling pits of evil that kill people or cause devastation, some are tame and stay clear of land.
I wish for you to
I wish for you to
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weathaguyry
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Re: EPAC: CALVIN - Tropical Storm
Steve820 wrote:I'm glad we have Calvin already even though it is the 3rd TS in a row. This is looking like almost a complete copy of Beatriz (weak TS striking southern Mexico), hopefully it doesn't repeat the deaths that Beatriz caused. I hope a hurricane comes soon (preferably a fishspinner hurricane).
Hopefully all the Hurricanes stay out in the EPAC away from land, instead of in the Atlantic where there are densely populated cities at risk!!!
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My posts are only my opinions and NOT official forecasts. For official forecasts, consult the National Hurricane Center or the National Weather Service.
Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
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Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: CALVIN - Tropical Storm
EP, 03, 201706122345, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1570N, 9620W, , 2, 55, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, SAB, FS, VIM, 3, 3535 /////, , , GOES13, LLCC, T, DT=3.5 BO CBND MET=2.5 PT=3.0 FTBO DT
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Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: CALVIN - Tropical Storm
EP, 03, 2017061300, , BEST, 0, 159N, 957W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 50, 50, 0, 1010, 120, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, CALVIN, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 004,
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: CALVIN - Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm Calvin Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032017
1000 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017
Surface observations and various satellite data, along with radar
information from Puerto Angel, Mexico, indicate that the
center of Calvin made landfall around 13/0000 UTC about midway
between Salina Cruz and Puerto Angel, near Paja Blanca.
The initial motion estimate is 305/04 kt over the past 6 hours after
smoothing through the various wobbles in the track. The center of
Calvin is now inland over southeastern Mexico based on surface
observations. Calvin is expected to gradually turn toward the
west-northwest or west over the next 12-24 hours as the cyclone
moves along the southern periphery of a weak mid-level ridge and
also along the front range of the Sierra Madre Del Sur mountains.
The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track
and lies close to the consensus model TVCN.
Now that Calvin has moved inland, steady weakening should ensue
shortly and continue through Tuesday due to interaction with the
mountainous terrain of southeastern Mexico. Tropical depression
status has been maintained at the 12- and 24-hour periods due to the
possibility of 25-30 kt winds remaining over water to the south of
the Calvin's center.
The primary danger from Calvin will come from heavy rains, and the
associated threats of flash flooding and mudslides, particularly in
areas of mountainous terrain.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 13/0300Z 16.0N 95.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
12H 13/1200Z 16.1N 96.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 14/0000Z 16.3N 96.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 14/1200Z 16.5N 97.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Stewart
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032017
1000 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017
Surface observations and various satellite data, along with radar
information from Puerto Angel, Mexico, indicate that the
center of Calvin made landfall around 13/0000 UTC about midway
between Salina Cruz and Puerto Angel, near Paja Blanca.
The initial motion estimate is 305/04 kt over the past 6 hours after
smoothing through the various wobbles in the track. The center of
Calvin is now inland over southeastern Mexico based on surface
observations. Calvin is expected to gradually turn toward the
west-northwest or west over the next 12-24 hours as the cyclone
moves along the southern periphery of a weak mid-level ridge and
also along the front range of the Sierra Madre Del Sur mountains.
The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track
and lies close to the consensus model TVCN.
Now that Calvin has moved inland, steady weakening should ensue
shortly and continue through Tuesday due to interaction with the
mountainous terrain of southeastern Mexico. Tropical depression
status has been maintained at the 12- and 24-hour periods due to the
possibility of 25-30 kt winds remaining over water to the south of
the Calvin's center.
The primary danger from Calvin will come from heavy rains, and the
associated threats of flash flooding and mudslides, particularly in
areas of mountainous terrain.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 13/0300Z 16.0N 95.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
12H 13/1200Z 16.1N 96.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 14/0000Z 16.3N 96.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 14/1200Z 16.5N 97.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Stewart
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