ATL: BRET - Remnants - Discussion

[tolakram]

latest

[hurricanes1234]

You don't see -70C cloud tops over Trinidad very often. Hope everyone has a safe night there.

Thanks.

Things are starting to get a little more interesting on the western side of the island, which is where I live. The sky is now overcast and orange, there's moderate rainfall, and I can, for the first time with this system, discern low rumbles of thunder.

Pretty soon I'm sure the deep burst of convection will fully cover the west and cause the weather to deteriorate further.

[abajan]

latest
[img]http://i.imgur.com/SKTOMlZ.gif[img]

Ooh! Looks like some heavy rain about to impact southern Trinidad shortly. Flooding very likely, especially since that island recently had quite a bit of rain.

[Gustywind]

Technically, according to this compass point designation calculator, it's actually moving W, not the WNW stated in the advisory.

You're definitely right Abajan! By the way, hope you're safe and dry even if you should not deal with too much rain and strong winds given Bret trek pretty souther of your beautiful island. Whereas, we have an indication that this season seems really began faster than predicted. We will see!

Thanks, Gusty. Barbados actually got pretty high winds this morning (possibly gusting to tropical storm force at times), followed by a period of fairly heavy rain. Things are pretty much back to normal now, though.

Glad to see you back in the action like me Thanks for this interresting report Hopefully, things are back to normal Hope that Trinidad and Tobago don't take a more than punch from Bret

[1900hurricane]

Here's the 00Z sounding out of TTPP. The sounding is almost completely saturated, typical of what would be expected in a tropical cyclone. It's also interesting to note how much lower/warmer the tropopause is with Bret than with 03L in the southern Gulf, despite being at a lower latitude. Instead of being near 100 mb/16 km/-80*C, it's closer to 150 mb/14.5 km/-70*C. EL temps are consistent with IR imagery (the threshold of BD white is -70*C).

[Gustywind]

Report from Trinidad...
http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/trinidad.shtml

- Tropical Storm Bret
•By Stephen Abouhamad <stephen_abouhamad at hotmail.com>
•Date: Tue, 20 Jun 2017 01:46:34 +0000

19/06/17

San Juan Trinidad

Good Night to all,

At presently here in Trinidad it is raining with gusts of winds. Tobago has already suffered damage and we trust that everyone is safe within Trinidad and Tobago. Hello to the folks in Grenada. Keep safe and God bless. Next post will be tomorrow please God.

Regards,

[Aric Dunn]

landfall happening from now through the next 4 to 5 hours over multiple islands and land..

if it survives would be a interesting since its so small ..

[weathaguyry]

That ball of convection is simply amazing to me, due to the time of year and the location it's in!

[Hammy]

This sort of reminds me of Isidore (albeit in September) though that slipped even further south and missed Trinidad (and dissipated over Venezuela as a result).

[1900hurricane]

Here's the METOP-B pass from about an hour ago.

[TheStormExpert]

What was the last TC to make landfall on Trinidad and Tobago or South America?

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022017
1100 PM AST Mon Jun 19 2017

This evening's satellite presentation shows an improved cloud
pattern with a small central dense overcast feature developing just
to the north of the circulation center. Earlier microwave imagery
and this afternoon's aircraft reconnaissance fix indicate that the
vertical structure of the cyclone is tilted toward the north due to
the increasing southerly shear. No change in the current satellite
intensity estimates from the previous advisory and the initial
intensity remains at 35 kt. Interaction with the coast of Venezuela
and persistent southerly shear produced by a mid-Atlantic trough
digging into the central Caribbean Sea should initiate a weakening
trend during the next 24 hours, or so. The large-scale models
continue to show Bret dissipating over the Central Caribbean in
about 2 days and the official forecast follows suit. The intensity
forecast is an update of the previous advisory and is based on the
IVCN consensus.

The initial motion is estimated to be 285/20 kt, a little slower
than 6 hours ago. The track forecast philosophy remains unchanged
from the previous advisory. A well-established mid-tropospheric
ridge to the north of Bret should steer the system generally
west-northwestward during the next 24 hours. Afterward, a more
westward track is likely while a weaker, more shallow system moves
within the low-level trade winds. The NHC track forecast is close
to the previous one and very similar to the latest model consensus,
TVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 10.0N 61.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 11.0N 63.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 12.1N 67.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 12.8N 71.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 22/0000Z 13.5N 75.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

[hurricanes1234]

What was the last TC to make landfall on Trinidad and Tobago or South America?

Bret 1993 if I'm not mistaken.

[TheStormExpert]

What was the last TC to make landfall on Trinidad and Tobago or South America?

Bret 1993 if I'm not mistaken.

Go figure!

[weathaguyry]

I believe if Bret can stay a little south, it may help it in the short term, since the mainland is mostly swampy and low-elevation near Bret, while the Island to the North has mountains on the northern side.

[TheStormExpert]

I believe if Bret can stay a little south, it may help it in the short term, since the mainland is mostly swampy and low-elevation near Bret, while the Island to the North has mountains on the northern side.

Could that small narrow strip of mountains do anything to disrupt a TC though? The only thing that might allow it to is it's small size.

[Hammy]

I believe if Bret can stay a little south, it may help it in the short term, since the mainland is mostly swampy and low-elevation near Bret, while the Island to the North has mountains on the northern side.

Could that small narrow strip of mountains do anything to disrupt a TC though? The only thing that might allow it to is it's small size.

What I'm interested to see is if the center can slip between the mountain range there (the gap near 10.5N/63W) if the flow through the mountains may actually increase the vorticity and help it survive a bit longer.

[weathaguyry]

I'm not sure, since there usually aren't tropical systems that come through here, but that strip looks very thin, so I don't think it'll do too much

[Aric Dunn]

Its too small to really survive the shear and land.. say goodbye..

[weathaguyry]

Its too small to really survive the shear and land.. say goodbye..

It's really not a whole bunch of land, just a little strip of elevated terrain, but that's really it. If it were to continue tracking directly westward, it would get into some of the pretty mountainous terrain, but since it is starting to get somewhat of a WNW movement, it may just be able to escape the terrain without too much trouble. Because it's small, it won't be affected as much by being near land, since, less of the actual storm would actually be over the land. But if this thing gets over land for any extended period of time, it will most certainly die off. Bret also has a little while before the wall of shear comes, and shreds this thing to die in the East Caribbean graveyard