ATL: BRET - Remnants - Discussion

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Its too small to really survive the shear and land.. say goodbye..

Going to pull a TS Chris '06 in 36 hours... that'll be an awesome .gif to save, for sure!

[Blinhart]

What is the likely hood of this system keeping the energy flowing even without the storms for a few days and then reform further West in the Caribbean say like south of the Yucatan Peninsula.

[bg1]

What was the last TC to make landfall on Trinidad and Tobago or South America?

Bret 1993 if I'm not mistaken.

I think it actually was Isidore in 2002; it made landfall in Venezuela as TD 10.

[weathaguyry]

What is the likely hood of this system keeping the energy flowing even without the storms for a few days and then reform further West in the Caribbean say like south of the Yucatan Peninsula.

I would say it's possible, since this thing is moving very fast, it may be a somewhat identifiable swirl when it gets there, so it could reform. That would certainly be an interesting thing to see in June

[Aric Dunn]

Its too small to really survive the shear and land.. say goodbye..

It's really not a whole bunch of land, just a little strip of elevated terrain, but that's really it. If it were to continue tracking directly westward, it would get into some of the pretty mountainous terrain, but since it is starting to get somewhat of a WNW movement, it may just be able to escape the terrain without too much trouble. Because it's small, it won't be affected as much by being near land, since, less of the actual storm would actually be over the land. But if this thing gets over land for any extended period of time, it will most certainly die off. Bret also has a little while before the wall of shear comes, and shreds this thing to die in the East Caribbean graveyard

Noticed i said land and shear.. shear being the big one.. land nailing the coffin ... lol

[Blinhart]

What is the likely hood of this system keeping the energy flowing even without the storms for a few days and then reform further West in the Caribbean say like south of the Yucatan Peninsula.

I would say it's possible, since this thing is moving very fast, it may be a somewhat identifiable swirl when it gets there, so it could reform. That would certainly be an interesting thing to see in June

I was thinking the same thing, but was hoping to get some expert thoughts.

[Blinhart]

If the remnants survive, this could still redevelop in the EPAC next week?

I was thinking maybe even in the Bay of Honduras or even in the GoM.

[Aric Dunn]

Its is moving right along.. not likely to survive.. but here is the center currently..

from the motion its going to head right into land.. and likely never emerge lol

[Aric Dunn]

What is the likely hood of this system keeping the energy flowing even without the storms for a few days and then reform further West in the Caribbean say like south of the Yucatan Peninsula.

I would say it's possible, since this thing is moving very fast, it may be a somewhat identifiable swirl when it gets there, so it could reform. That would certainly be an interesting thing to see in June

I was thinking the same thing, but was hoping to get some expert thoughts.

hell its the tropics.. who knows. I do remember a run of the GFS where it eventually got absorbed into the system in the gulf.. soo just have to wait and see.. right now though.. the shear its about to run into is not going to make it easy.

[AJC3]

Its is moving right along.. not likely to survive.. but here is the center currently..

I have to wonder why on earth the Trinidad radar isn't being ingested into the Caribbean mosaic. Besides the primary mission to build new radars, that mosaic was one of the important outputs of the CMO's (Caribbean Met Organization) Radar Project. IIRC that radar was included in the past. I hope one day to see all those radars online (including Punta Cana, DR), and some sort of cooperative endeavor to have the Mexican and Cuban radars as part of the mosaic. What's been done so far is nice, but that would be REALLY schweet.

[Aric Dunn]

Its is moving right along.. not likely to survive.. but here is the center currently..

I have to wonder why on earth the Trinidad radar isn't being ingested into the Caribbean mosaic. Besides the primary mission to build new radars, that mosaic was one of the important outputs of the CMO's (Caribbean Met Organization) Radar Project. IIRC that radar was included in the past. I hope one day to see all those radars online (including Punta Cana, DR), and some sort of cooperative endeavor to have the Mexican and Cuban radars as part of the mosaic. What's been done so far is nice, but that would be REALLY schweet.

Agreed !

though getting people to work together is tough since they all think the other is trying to best them.. lol.

I always wanted to start a project to have not a inch left of the carrib and coastal areas without radar coverage. wouldn't take but some cooperation lol

[AJC3]

Its is moving right along.. not likely to survive.. but here is the center currently..

I have to wonder why on earth the Trinidad radar isn't being ingested into the Caribbean mosaic. Besides the primary mission to build new radars, that mosaic was one of the important outputs of the CMO's (Caribbean Met Organization) Radar Project. IIRC that radar was included in the past. I hope one day to see all those radars online (including Punta Cana, DR), and some sort of cooperative endeavor to have the Mexican and Cuban radars as part of the mosaic. What's been done so far is nice, but that would be REALLY schweet.

Agreed !

though getting people to work together is tough since they all think the other is trying to best them.. lol.

I always wanted to start a project to have not a inch left of the carrib and coastal areas without radar coverage. wouldn't take but some cooperation lol

IIRC there was some 10-15+ years ago about the NWS assisting the Bahamas in getting some radars installed on the east side of their island chain. I always had a weenie fantasy of seeing doppler radars built on Anguilla, Grand Turk, Great Inagua, Mayaguana, Long Island, Cat Island, Eleuthera, and Great Abaco. Or at least about half of those places. LOL

[Hammy]

I have to wonder why on earth the Trinidad radar isn't being ingested into the Caribbean mosaic. Besides the primary mission to build new radars, that mosaic was one of the important outputs of the CMO's (Caribbean Met Organization) Radar Project. IIRC that radar was included in the past. I hope one day to see all those radars online (including Punta Cana, DR), and some sort of cooperative endeavor to have the Mexican and Cuban radars as part of the mosaic. What's been done so far is nice, but that would be REALLY schweet.

Agreed !

though getting people to work together is tough since they all think the other is trying to best them.. lol.

I always wanted to start a project to have not a inch left of the carrib and coastal areas without radar coverage. wouldn't take but some cooperation lol

IIRC there was some 10-15+ years ago about the NWS assisting the Bahamas in getting some radars installed on the east side of their island chain. I always had a weenie fantasy of seeing doppler radars built on Anguilla, Grand Turk, Great Inagua, Mayaguana, Long Island, Cat Island, Eleuthera, and Great Abaco. Or at least about half of those places. LOL

Southern tip of the Dominican Republic would be another good place--you'd have full radar coverage of the central Caribbean.

[southerngale]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 200552
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bret Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022017
200 AM AST Tue Jun 20 2017

...BRET STILL PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.3N 62.1W
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM w OF TRINIDAD
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SSW OF GRENADA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Trinidad
* Tobago
* Grenada
* Venezuela from Pedernales to Cumana including Isla de Margarita

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bonaire
* Curacao
* Aruba

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bret was
located near latitude 10.3 North, longitude 62.1 West. Bret is
moving toward the west-northwest near 22 mph (35 km/h) and is
expected to gradually reduce its forward speed over the next 48
hours. On the forecast track, the tropical storm is expected to
move away from Trinidad, move near or along the northeast coast of
Venezuela this morning, and move into the extreme southeastern
Caribbean Sea this afternoon and evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today, and a
weakening trend is expected to begin on Tuesday when Bret is
forecast to become a tropical depression.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center. Point Salines, Grenada, recently reported
sustained winds of 39 mph (63 km/h) with a gust to 52 mph (83 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions may continue over portions of the
warning area for the next few hours, but these conditions should
subside later this morning.

RAINFALL: Bret is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2
to 4 inches over the Windward Islands and the northeastern coast of
Venezuela today and Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[Hammy]

Circulation appears to have held together so far as per Trinidad radar, and is about to emerge in the Caribbean.

[arlwx]

Tropical Storm Bret Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022017
500 AM AST Tue Jun 20 2017

...BRET MOVING ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.6N 62.9W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM ESE OF ISLA MARGARITA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Trinidad and Tobago has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for Trinidad, Tobago, and Grenada.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Venezuela from Pedernales to Cumana including Isla de Margarita

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bonaire
* Curacao
* Aruba


For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bret was
located near latitude 10.6 North, longitude 62.9 West. Bret is
moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue through today. On the
forecast track, the center of the tropical storm will move into the
extreme southeastern Caribbean Sea later today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today, and a weakening
trend is expected to begin later today when Bret is forecast to
become a tropical depression.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions will occur over portions of the
warning area for the next several hours, but these conditions should
subside later today.

RAINFALL: Bret is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2
to 4 inches over the Windward Islands and the northeastern coast of
Venezuela through today.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

[arlwx]

Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022017
500 AM AST Tue Jun 20 2017

Bret continues to have a fairly well-organized appearance on
satellite imagery, but the presentation on radar from Trinidad and
Venezuela is not so impressive, with a lack of well-defined banding
features. The structure of the cyclone continues to be
characterized by a northward tilt of the vortex with height, so
the center is estimated to be located near the southern side of the
CDO. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory,
which is the mean of Dvorak T-numbers from SAB and TAFB. The
intensity forecast reasoning remains about the same as before. No
significant short-term strengthening seems likely while the
circulation interacts with Venezuela today. In 24 hours or so, a
weakening trend should commence due to strong south-southwesterly
shear associated with an upper-level trough over the Caribbean Sea.
The global models continue to be in good agreement that the system
will dissipate over the west-central Caribbean in 2-3 days. The
official intensity forecast is near or slightly above the intensity
model consensus, IVCN.

The forward motion has slowed just a bit from yesterday and is now
around 290/18 kt. There continues to be little change to the track
forecast philosophy. The flow on the southern side of a
well-defined mid-level subtropical ridge should steer the cyclone on
a west-northwestward to westward track for the next couple of days.
The official track forecast lies between the latest ECMWF and GFS
solutions and is close to the model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 10.6N 62.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 11.5N 65.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 12.4N 68.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 13.3N 72.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 22/0600Z 13.6N 76.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

[cycloneye]

@philklotzbach
Tropical Storm #Bret's named storm formation latitude of 9.4°N is the lowest latitude June named storm formation since 1933

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/877093919388860417

[Aric Dunn]

very unlikely we have a closed circ still.. but will see later if it emerge off shore or not..

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bret Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022017
800 AM AST Tue Jun 20 2017

...BRET MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.1N 63.6W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM ENE OF ISLA MARGARITA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES