ATL: CINDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Here we go.

AL, 93, 2017061618, , BEST, 0, 165N, 850W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS003, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 003,
AL, 93, 2017061700, , BEST, 0, 168N, 853W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS003, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 003,
AL, 93, 2017061706, , BEST, 0, 172N, 857W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS003, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 003,
AL, 93, 2017061712, , BEST, 0, 175N, 860W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 180, 150, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 003, SPAWNINVEST, al732017 to al932017,

Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this area.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=118764

[South Texas Storms]

Models go here.

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA (NW CARIBBEAN)
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71          FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
       A. 18/2000Z                    A. 19/1130Z,1730Z
       B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST          B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
       C. 18/1730Z                    C. 19/0945Z
       D. 20.0N 86.5W                 D. 22.0N 87.5W
       E. 18/1930Z TO 18/2330Z        E. 19/1100Z TO 19/1730Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT            F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
       A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF ABOVE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND REMAINS
          A THREAT.

[Blinhart]

Why do I have a feeling this might be another Humberto, takes a while to consolidate and then after forming go through RI and becomes a strong Cat 1 low Cat 2 before landfall?

[cycloneye]

[wxman57]

GFS does initialize a low in the vicinity of the invest location, but then it develops another low north of the Yucatan. Very odd. I don't trust it.

[AtlanticWind]

The systems broad circulation is becoming much more evident this morning,I think we should have a depression by Sunday

[Ivanhater]

GFS does initialize a low in the vicinity of the invest location, but then it develops another low north of the Yucatan. Very odd. I don't trust it.

Would be similar to Cindy 2005..low reforming to the north and threatening northern Gulf Coast

[Craters]

The forerunner of this topic was locked just after Tolakram posted a beautiful loop of the center of the system (http://i.imgur.com/ndf3Szj.gif).

Maybe one of the mets can comment on this: About halfway through the loop, the large convective cell closest to the center of the frame is the source of a semicircular set of clouds that, at the playback speed, look like shock waves spanning roughly 6:00 to 12:00 (centered on the cell). They move out radially from the center, with no evidence of Coriolis effects at all. Are they associated with outflow boundaries from that cell? I guess the timing could be right...

Thanks in advance!

Another Mark

[TheStormExpert]

GFS does initialize a low in the vicinity of the invest location, but then it develops another low north of the Yucatan. Very odd. I don't trust it.

Would be similar to Cindy 2005..low reforming to the north and threatening northern Gulf Coast

Funny too that this very well could be Cindy assuming Invest 92L becomes Bret.

[Hurricaneman]

Now that we have a tightening broad low we have something to track and while Texas is still my area of choice for this system the GFS solution can't be completely discounted as we seem to have a very slow NNW motion to this broad low

[tarheelprogrammer]

Have the models ever whiffed on intensity? In terms of predicting low intensity, and then out of no where the storm gets stronger than they thought? Just curious. I am not saying this one will do that.

[Steve]

Have the models ever whiffed on intensity? In terms of predicting low intensity, and then out of no where the storm gets stronger than they thought? Just curious. I am not saying this one will do that.

All the time. We are pretty inept still with any type of intensity modeling.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Have the models ever whiffed on intensity? In terms of predicting low intensity, and then out of no where the storm gets stronger than they thought? Just curious. I am not saying this one will do that.

All the time. We are pretty inept still with any type of intensity modeling.

Thanks. I forgot in the past if there were any major fails by the models. Is shear supposed to be high with this system?

[psyclone]

The forerunner of this topic was locked just after Tolakram posted a beautiful loop of the center of the system (http://i.imgur.com/ndf3Szj.gif).

Maybe one of the mets can comment on this: About halfway through the loop, the large convective cell closest to the center of the frame is the source of a semicircular set of clouds that, at the playback speed, look like shock waves spanning roughly 6:00 to 12:00 (centered on the cell). They move out radially from the center, with no evidence of Coriolis effects at all. Are they associated with outflow boundaries from that cell? I guess the timing could be right...

Thanks in advance!

Another Mark

I noticed that too. they look like gravity waves to me. fantastic loop for sure.

[Steve]

I haven't looked at the shear maps in a few days. Initially the N Gulf was supposed to have pretty strong westerly winds up to 50mph as of early this weeks air pattern forecasts.

[TheStormExpert]

2pm TWO. Up to 30/80%.

Satellite data and surface observations indicate that a broad low
pressure area has formed over the Gulf of Honduras, and the
associated shower activity is showing signs of organization.
Continued gradual development is expected as the system moves slowly
northwestward across the Yucatan Peninsula during the remainder of
the weekend, and a tropical cyclone is likely to form early next
week over the southern or central Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of
development, heavy rains are likely to spread over portions of
Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands,
and western Cuba during the next several days. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system on
Sunday, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[StormChaser75]

[StormChaser75]

[South Texas Storms]

12z Euro looks to be sticking to the west Gulf track through 72 hours.