EPAC: DORA - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ26 KNES 251823
TCSENP
CCA

A. 04E (DORA)

B. 25/1745Z

C. 15.5N

D. 102.6W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...CORRECTED FOR 24 HR TREND. DT=3.0 BASED ON .7 BANDING ON
LOG10 SPIRAL. PT=3.0. MET=3.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

25/1330Z 15.2N 102.0W SSMIS


...SCHWARTZ

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 04, 2017062518, , BEST, 0, 155N, 1025W, 45, 1001, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 40, 0, 40, 1009, 120, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, DORA, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 006,

[RL3AO]

Starting to look really good this afternoon.

[hurricanes1234]

Amazing how it's just perfectly circular ...

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* DORA EP042017 06/25/17 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 54 59 62 63 64 60 56 49 44 37 31
V (KT) LAND 45 50 54 59 62 63 64 60 56 49 44 37 31
V (KT) LGEM 45 49 54 57 59 59 55 49 42 36 31 26 22
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 6 4 3 3 8 8 2 2 3 4 7 7 2
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 -3 0 1 3 1 1 5 4 9
SHEAR DIR 21 22 50 119 129 95 141 269 256 189 209 192 161
SST (C) 28.5 28.3 27.7 27.3 26.7 25.4 24.2 23.4 23.1 23.0 22.8 22.6 22.9
POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 141 137 131 117 104 95 92 91 89 87 89
200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1
TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 6 5 6 4 4 2 2 1 1 0 0
700-500 MB RH 75 76 75 75 75 72 69 66 65 62 59 54 47
MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 15 18 18 16 18 16 16 14 13 11 9
850 MB ENV VOR 6 12 14 13 22 39 29 35 26 5 -3 0 27
200 MB DIV 39 54 56 37 38 13 -6 17 -10 -3 -21 -29 -5
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 -2 -5 -10 -1 -1 2 2 9
LAND (KM) 255 232 230 245 242 315 422 383 426 529 601 723 854
LAT (DEG N) 15.5 16.0 16.5 17.0 17.5 18.4 19.1 19.6 20.0 20.3 20.6 20.4 20.0
LONG(DEG W) 102.5 103.5 104.4 105.3 106.2 107.9 109.5 111.1 112.7 114.3 116.0 117.5 118.8
STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 6
HEAT CONTENT 18 12 10 8 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6
T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 463 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 9.5

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2.
PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 2. 4. 2. 2. -1. -3. -5. -6.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 14. 17. 18. 19. 15. 11. 4. -1. -8. -14.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.5 102.5

** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042017 DORA 06/25/17 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.6
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.51 3.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.80 6.4
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 10.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.10 0.6
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.8
D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.41 2.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 3.6
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.32 0.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 58.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.83 0.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 1.9 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.2 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 5.5%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 19.7% 29.2% 22.8% 19.4% 16.4% 20.8% 17.6% 8.3%
Logistic: 19.5% 39.2% 21.7% 14.9% 7.3% 20.2% 13.5% 0.3%
Bayesian: 2.4% 22.7% 7.3% 3.5% 1.5% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0%
Consensus: 13.9% 30.4% 17.3% 12.6% 8.4% 14.2% 10.5% 2.9%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042017 DORA 06/25/17 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[hurricanes1234]

EP, 04, 2017062518, , BEST, 0, 155N, 1025W, 45, 1001, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 40, 0, 40, 1009, 120, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, DORA, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 006,

Personally, based on my amateur eyes I think it looks closer to 50/55 knots now.

[RL3AO]

Ships says 29% of 25kt RI in 24 hours. I could easily see this being 75 kts by tomorrow afternoon.

[talkon]

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 252038
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Dora Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017
400 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Dora continues to exhibit well-defined convective spiral bands,
with a developing CDO. Dvorak T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB are
3.0 so the intensity is held at 45 kt for this advisory. The
tropical cyclone will be in a low-shear environment with
anticyclonic upper-level flow for several days. These dynamical
factors would favor intensification. Waters beneath Dora, however,
will begin to cool soon and the system should encounter
significantly cooler waters within 48 hours or so. Therefore the
window of opportunity for strengthening is decreasing, especially
since the cyclone is moving a little faster than before. The
official intensity forecast is close to the ICON consensus and still
shows Dora becoming a hurricane within 24 hours.

The latest center fixes yield a faster motion of around 300/12 kt.
A well-established subtropical ridge to the north of Dora should
produce a continued west-northwestward motion for much of the
forecast period. By days 4 and 5 a more westward track is likely
due to the system weakening and becoming a shallow vortex. The
official track forecast is somewhat faster than the previous one,
close to, or a little south of, the latest model consensus.

Although Dora is forecast to remain offshore, the outer bands of the
tropical cyclone could bring locally heavy rains to portions of
coastal southwestern Mexico during the day or so.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 15.7N 103.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 16.6N 104.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 17.6N 106.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 18.5N 108.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 19.0N 110.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 19.8N 114.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 29/1800Z 20.0N 117.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/1800Z 19.5N 120.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[1900hurricane]

Looking well developed with a curved band beginning to hook around the north from the east.

[Yellow Evan]

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 04, 201706252345, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1590N, 10330W, , 2, 45, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, SAB, JW, VIM, 3, 3030 /////, , , GOES13, LLCC, T, DT=3.0 BO CBND MET=3.0 PT=3.5 FTBO DT

[cycloneye]

55kts.

EP, 04, 2017062600, , BEST, 0, 161N, 1038W, 55, 999, TS

[Ntxw]

Yeah all things equal she should be a hurricane tomorrow.

[hurricanes1234]

No surprise. Been quite a while since I've seen a storm with a symmetry this amazing. A giant whirlpool indeed...

[Ntxw]

Ryan Maue is betting major. She does look pretty good.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/879142892408852485

[weathaguyry]

If the EPAC does start to crank out a bunch of storms in the near future, it will be a sign that this won't be another 2013, but perhaps something like last year, where it took a while for everything to get going

[1900hurricane]

A major might not be a bad prediction based on current presentation and structure.

[RL3AO]

Surprised they kept it at 65kts last time. 80 or 85 for a peak wouldn't shock me at the next advisory.

[weathaguyry]

Ryan Maue is betting major. She does look pretty good.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/879142892408852485

Am I going insane, or does it look like an eye is about to pop out?

[RL3AO]

Am I going insane, or does it look like an eye is about to pop out?

Looks like it.