EPAC: DORA - Post-Tropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 21470
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: EPAC: DORA - Tropical Storm

#101 Postby Ntxw » Sun Jun 25, 2017 8:37 pm

weathaguyry wrote:
Am I going insane, or does it look like an eye is about to pop out?


You're not going insane. That's where it's happening. If that starts clearing out then she will be a major pretty quick.

Image
1 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

  Help support Storm2K!
Help Support Storm2K

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15948
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re: EPAC: DORA - Tropical Storm

#102 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Jun 25, 2017 8:58 pm

Looks near T4.0. Not sure if it has the time to become a major but I'd be surprised if this didn't reach Cat 2. HWRF, GFDL, ECMWF, and GFS all show a bit of intensification left still. With that said, Dora is moving faster than expect but time is her enemy.
1 likes   

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6044
Age: 32
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

Re: EPAC: DORA - Tropical Storm

#103 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Jun 25, 2017 8:59 pm

Latest microwave shows continued structural development.

Image
1 likes   
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

User avatar
weathaguyry
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1272
Age: 20
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 5:16 am
Location: Long Island, NY

Re: EPAC: DORA - Tropical Storm

#104 Postby weathaguyry » Sun Jun 25, 2017 9:50 pm

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 260246
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dora Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017
1000 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

...DORA QUICKLY STRENGTHENING...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 104.3W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dora was
located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 104.3 West. Dora is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this
general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected
over the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Dora
is expected to move parallel to but remain offshore of the coast
of southwestern Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next 24 hours and Dora is expected to become a hurricane by early
Monday. Weakening is forecast to begin Monday night or Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Dora is expected to produce rain accumulations of 1 to 3
inches along coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero and
Michoacan through Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Dora are affecting portions of
the coast of southwest Mexico. These swells are expected to spread
northwestward and begin affecting portions of the coast of the
southern Baja California peninsula on Tuesday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown
0 likes   
My posts are only my opinions and NOT official forecasts. For official forecasts, consult the National Hurricane Center or the National Weather Service.

Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’

talkon
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 204
Joined: Tue Aug 12, 2014 7:28 am

Re: EPAC: DORA - Tropical Storm

#105 Postby talkon » Sun Jun 25, 2017 10:05 pm

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 260246
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Dora Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017
1000 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Dora's cloud pattern has continued to quickly improve this evening.
Several well-defined spiral bands wrap around the center and the
CDO has become more symmetric and expanded since the previous
advisory. Recent microwave imagery suggest that an eye feature has
formed within the CDO. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from
TAFB and objective estimates from UW/CIMSS supported an intensity
of 55 kt at 0000 UTC, but with the continued improved structure,
the initial intensity has been set to 60 kt for this advisory.
Dora is forecast to move over warm water and remain within a low
shear environment during the next 12 to 24 hours. These conditions
should allow for additional intensification and Dora is likely to
become a hurricane by early Monday. The tropical cyclone is
forecast to reach cooler waters in about a day, which should begin
the weakening process. A faster rate of spin down is expected by
late Tuesday as Dora moves over even colder waters and into a more
stable environment. The NHC intensity forecast is a little
above the ICON consensus through 36 hours, and is in best agreement
with the LGEM guidance later in the period.

Dora is moving west-northwestward or 300/12 kt. A strong mid-level
ridge to the north of Dora is expected to steer the tropical
cyclone west-northwestward over the next couple of days. After
that time, a weaker and more shallow Dora should turn westward. The
updated NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory and
lies a little south of the TVCN model consensus out of respect for
the typically reliable ECMWF which is along the southern edge of the
guidance envelope.

Although Dora is forecast to remain offshore, the outer bands of the
tropical cyclone could bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of
coastal southwestern Mexico through Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 16.4N 104.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 17.2N 105.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 18.2N 107.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 19.0N 109.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 19.4N 111.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 29/0000Z 19.8N 115.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 30/0000Z 20.0N 118.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/0000Z 19.0N 121.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown
0 likes   
DISCLAIMER: I am not a meteorologist. Any posts I made, unless copied from some official agency, are only my opinion and is unofficial and often exaggerated. Please refer to your official RSMC for official products and warnings.

dexterlabio
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3405
Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm

Re: EPAC: DORA - Tropical Storm

#106 Postby dexterlabio » Sun Jun 25, 2017 10:38 pm

Oh I thought we would have to wait for more weeks to see this kind of impressive development in the tropics.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15948
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re: EPAC: DORA - Tropical Storm

#107 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jun 26, 2017 1:25 am

EP, 04, 201706260545, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1680N, 10480W, , 2, 55, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, SAB, PL, IM, 3, 3535 /////, , , GOES13, LLCC, T, DT=3.5 BO CBND MET=3.5 PT=4.0 FTBO DT


Why not BO EMBD?
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15948
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re: EPAC: DORA - Tropical Storm

#108 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jun 26, 2017 1:50 am

EP, 04, 201706260545, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1660N, 10470W, , 3, 65, 2, 987, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, TAFB, AL, I, 5, 4040 /////, , , GOES13, CSC, T,
1 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15425
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: EPAC: DORA - Tropical Storm

#109 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jun 26, 2017 3:14 am

Made it to a hurricane!
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15948
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re: EPAC: DORA - Tropical Storm

#110 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jun 26, 2017 4:41 am

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 260844
TCDEP4

Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017
400 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Dora has continued to intensify overnight with a well-defined eye on
microwave data and occasional hints of an eye on conventional
satellite imagery. The cloud pattern has also become more symmetric
than 6 hours ago, with outflow expanding in all quadrants. Satellite
estimates supported an intensity of 65 kt at 0600 UTC, but with the
improving satellite presentation since that time, the initial wind
speed is set to 70 kt. Dora has about 12-24 hours to further
strengthen before a combination of cooling SSTs and a more
dry and stable environment likely causes the hurricane to start to
decay. Interestingly, the models are in poor agreement on the
weakening rate of Dora, with the regional hurricane models showing
the cyclone losing strength much faster than the statistical aids.
Since the shear is expected to remain low, which would normally
inhibit dry air intrusions, the NHC forecast is a little higher than
the model consensus, closer to the SHIPS/LGEM solutions and the
previous NHC forecast. Given the spread in the guidance, this is a
low confidence forecast.

Dora is moving west-northwestward or 295/11 kt. A strong mid-level
ridge to the north of Dora is expected to steer the tropical
cyclone west-northwestward over the next couple of days. Dora
should turn westward in about 3 days as it loses deep convection and
becomes a more shallow low. Models have shifted a bit southward
since the previous advisory, and the official NHC track forecast
follows suit. The global models also show Dora weakening into a
trough by day 5, and this is reflected in the dissipation forecast
for that time.

Although Dora is forecast to remain offshore, the outer bands of the
tropical cyclone could bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of
coastal southwestern Mexico through this evening.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 16.7N 105.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 17.4N 106.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 18.2N 108.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 18.8N 110.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 19.2N 112.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 29/0600Z 19.9N 115.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 30/0600Z 20.0N 118.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 15948
Age: 25
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:

Re: EPAC: DORA - Tropical Storm

#111 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jun 26, 2017 4:42 am

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15425
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: EPAC: DORA - Hurricane

#112 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jun 26, 2017 5:08 am

Should make a run at major hurricane status tomorrow. Taking on a classic buzzsaw shape.
1 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

Digital-TC-Chaser

Re: EPAC: DORA - Hurricane

#113 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Mon Jun 26, 2017 5:46 am

Image
Certainly is well on the way to being gnarly.
0 likes   

User avatar
TheStormExpert
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8487
Age: 30
Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: EPAC: DORA - Hurricane

#114 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Jun 26, 2017 6:26 am

Dry air might make it come short of major status.

 https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/879299065661583361


0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

Digital-TC-Chaser

Re: EPAC: DORA - Hurricane

#115 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Mon Jun 26, 2017 6:55 am

Image
Appears to be working out that dry air slot to the nw. Not far off completing the eyewall.
1 likes   

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2903
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Trinidad and Tobago

Re: EPAC: DORA - Hurricane

#116 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Jun 26, 2017 7:12 am

I'd be shocked if this isn't at least a category 2 by the next advisory. Continues to exhibit astounding symmetry and that eye is really popping now.

Image
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 21470
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: EPAC: DORA - Hurricane

#117 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jun 26, 2017 7:35 am

This is at least a cat 2, if not on way to cat 3. If eye can warm a little more, raw T numbers getting high.

Image

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 26 JUN 2017 Time : 111500 UTC
Lat : 17:07:05 N Lon : 105:37:27 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.5 / 976.9mb/ 77.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.5 5.6 6.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 10 km

Center Temp : -32.2C Cloud Region Temp : -70.5C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF


Image
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138886
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: DORA - Hurricane

#118 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 26, 2017 8:37 am

As of 12:00 UTC Jun 26, 2017:

Location: 17.1°N 105.8°W
Maximum Winds: 75 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 985 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1011 mb
Radius of Circulation: 100 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 15 NM
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 21470
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: EPAC: DORA - Hurricane

#119 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jun 26, 2017 8:41 am

First full visible of the day

Image
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22473
Age: 66
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: EPAC: DORA - Hurricane

#120 Postby wxman57 » Mon Jun 26, 2017 8:51 am

CIMSS has it at 5.1 now with 92 kt winds. It does look like it has reached Cat 2 status.
0 likes   


Return to “2017”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 20 guests