EPAC: DORA - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

 https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/879430261481627648

[Kingarabian]

Intensifying again. It has pushed out the dry air and the eyewall has been rebuilt in W and NW quads. CDO is thickening again, with 75-80C cloud tops beginning to make a come back.



It's shrinking in size, gradually losing banding features, eye continues to contract. Don't want to throw the 'A' word out there considering we don't see these type of storms this close to Mexico, but it may be beginning to take on annular characteristics and gradually becoming annular. This would extend its lifeline, as the detrimental factors that the Euro and the GFS are showing in bringing it over cooler waters and into a stable airmass, would be less effective.

[wxman57]

Sure looks stronger than 80 kts to me. Maybe Dvorak 5 (or a bit more) vs. 4.5.

[NDG]

Close up loop of Dora this afternoon.

[Yellow Evan]

Sure looks stronger than 80 kts to me. Maybe Dvorak 5 (or a bit more) vs. 4.5.

Cloud tops aren't cold (LG) and the eye is just OW, unless you use GOES-16.

[Kingarabian]

Sure looks stronger than 80 kts to me. Maybe Dvorak 5 (or a bit more) vs. 4.5.

Cloud tops aren't cold (LG) and the eye is just OW, unless you use GOES-16.

Dvorak is too subjective. Jimena 2015 when it got close to Hawaii had warmer tops, less defined eye, yet it was @ 90kts because of recon missions data being interpolated and considered in the forecast.

Here is Jimena 2015 @ 90kts (thank you 1900hurricane for archiving):



Dora, currently:



Could almost argue that it's near or at MH status considering how compact it is.

[Ntxw]

Sure looks stronger than 80 kts to me. Maybe Dvorak 5 (or a bit more) vs. 4.5.

Cloud tops aren't cold (LG) and the eye is just OW, unless you use GOES-16.

Dvorak is too subjective. Jimena 2015 when it got close to Hawaii had warmer tops, less defined eye, yet it was @ 90kts because of recon missions data being interpolated and considered in the forecast.

Here is Jimena 2015 @ 90kts (thank you 1900hurricane for archiving):

http://i.imgur.com/h0FCAUK.gif

Dora, currently:

http://i.imgur.com/NxTPx1X.gif

Could almost argue that it's near or at MH status considering how compact it is.

http://i.imgur.com/47JNDOP.jpg

I think she's held a pretty steady state this afternoon after weakening some from this morning. The argument could've been made this morning of 100kts which I think is worth rehashing post season, not sure why ADT wasn't a good thought by the NHC this morning. We all know the recon argument it's quite valid. I mean a half-lopsided naked swirl in the Atlantic could see 55kts yet Dora was 75kts is beyond me .

[hurricanes1234]

Well, just goes back to the good ol' proverb:

Without recon, thou shalt never know the true intensity of thy storm.

[Yellow Evan]

Jimena 15 never got recon. You might be thinking of Lester last year King.

[Kingarabian]

Jimena 15 never got recon. You might be thinking of Lester last year King.

Ooh I mixed up the recon files with Jimena 2009, which had recon.

[talkon]

Still 80 kts

EP, 04, 2017062700, , BEST, 0, 182N, 1078W, 80, 981, HU

[Kingarabian]

Still 80 kts

EP, 04, 2017062700, , BEST, 0, 182N, 1078W, 80, 981, HU

Yeah SAB came in at 4.5.

If they would blend ADTs 5.5, they would get a correct 5.0 dvorak which I believe is accurate.

[RL3AO]

Wouldn't be shocked if Dora starts to get some of those "A" word characteristics.

[1900hurricane]

Wouldn't be shocked if Dora starts to get some of those "A" word characteristics.

Heh, that word is tossed around too much, but this is one of those environments where you have to watch for it. Dora has begun to trend in that direction at the least.

[Ntxw]

[hurricanes1234]

Eye is very warm.

Center Temp : +10.9C

[1900hurricane]

ADT and AMSU are at opposite ends of the spectrum in SATCON right now.

[hurricanes1234]

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 270244
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dora Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017
900 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017

...DORA MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY FOR NOW...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 108.3W
ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the large eye of Hurricane Dora was
located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 108.3 West. Dora is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this
general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over
the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Dora
is expected to pass over or just north of Socorro Island on
Tuesday, and remain well south of the Baja California peninsula.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next 48 hours, and
Dora is forecast to become a tropical storm Tuesday night or
Wednesday morning.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Dora are affecting portions of the
coast of southwest Mexico. These swells are expected to spread
northwestward and begin affecting portions of the coast of the
southern Baja California peninsula by early Tuesday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[Yellow Evan]

Clearly suffering from cold water and the sharp SST gradient but you can also tell it's minimally sheared. I'm not one to demand a CMG ring around everything, but I'm not the biggest fan of the MG cloud topis. It doesn't look bad per se, but I'm not going to burn off excess calories tracking this system either .

[hurricanes1234]

No change, still at 80 knots. Last hope is in the reanalysis now.