EPAC: DORA - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

Use this for ADT

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... dt04E.html

[Kingarabian]

Beginning to wind down now.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017
300 AM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017

Over the past several hours, the satellite presentation of Dora has
degraded with cooling eye temperatures and breaks in the eyewall
convection noted in the northwestern quadrant. Dvorak estimates
are dropping and support a wind speed of 70 kt for this advisory.
Dora is moving into cooler waters and a drier airmass, which should
cause steady weakening over the next couple of days. Model guidance
has come into better agreement on Dora becoming a tropical storm
later today and a tropical depression by Thursday. The NHC
intensity prediction is on the low side of the guidance since ASCAT
confirmed Dora is a rather small tropical cyclone, and these types
of systems are known to disappear rather quickly in the cold eastern
Pacific waters. It would not be surprising if Dora dissipated
faster than shown below.

Dora is moving west-northwestward or 295/10 kt. A large deep-layer
ridge to the north of the hurricane should keep it moving on a
west-northwestward track during the next 24 to 36 hours. After
that time, a weaker and more shallow Dora should turn generally
westward in the low-level flow before opening up into a trough by
day 4. Guidance has shifted slightly northward during this cycle,
perhaps due to a deeper model representation of Dora at the current
time. The new NHC track forecast reflects that trend and lies a bit
north of the previous one, close to the latest multi-model
consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 18.8N 109.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 19.3N 110.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 19.9N 112.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 20.4N 114.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 20.8N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 30/0600Z 21.0N 119.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

[1900hurricane]

Use this for ADT

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... dt04E.html

Do you know the link to the parent page for that GOES-16 ADT?

[Ntxw]

She had a good run but its coming to an end

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017
900 AM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017

Dora's satellite presentation continues to degrade. Although an
eye is still evident, the coverage and depth of deep convection has
been diminishing. The current intensity is set at 65 kt based on a
blend of T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. The cyclone is
currently traversing sub-26 deg C SSTs, and the waters beneath Dora
will continue to cool for the next couple of days. The system
should weaken to a tropical storm later today and degenerate into a
remnant low in 48 hours, or less. The official intensity forecast
is in close agreement with the model consensus ICON.

Center fixes yield a continued west-northwestward motion of 300/11
kt. A mid-level subtropical ridge to the north of Dora should
maintain the west-northwestward motion, with some decrease in
forward speed, over the next day or two. In 48-72 hours, a more
westward track of the weakening cyclone is anticipated. The
official track forecast is a little north of the previous one, but
south of the latest model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 19.3N 110.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 19.8N 111.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 20.4N 113.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 21.0N 115.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 21.5N 117.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 30/1200Z 21.5N 120.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[TheAustinMan]

Use this for ADT

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... dt04E.html

Do you know the link to the parent page for that GOES-16 ADT?

Here is the page: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/goesrPG/adt-PG.html

[NDG]

Unlike last year the current cooler than average waters off of Baja took a toll on Dora really quick.

[Kingarabian]

Unlike last year the current cooler than average waters off of Baja took a toll on Dora really quick.

And the dry air.

[weathaguyry]

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 272042
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Dora Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017
300 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017

The convection associated with Dora continues to decrease, with the
center now exposed to the west of a small area of deep convection.
Various satellite intensity estimates range from 54-77 kt, while a
recent ASCAT overpass suggested winds of about 45 kt. The initial
intensity is lowered to 55 kt, and it is possible that this is
generous. Dora should continue to rapidly weaken as it moves over
colder sea surface temperatures, and the system is expected to
become a remnant low in 36 h or less. The official intensity
forecast is again in close agreement with the model consensus ICON.

The initial motion is 290/11. A mid-level subtropical ridge to the
north of Dora should maintain the west-northwestward motion, with
some decrease in forward speed, over the next 36-48 h. After that,
a westward or south of westward motion is expected. The official
forecast track is similar to the previous track, but it lies to the
south of the model consensus between 24-48 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 19.6N 111.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 20.1N 112.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 20.6N 114.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 21.2N 116.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 29/1800Z 21.7N 117.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 30/1800Z 21.5N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

[weathaguyry]

Dora is not looking great, perhaps she explored the Pacific a little too much.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Dora Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017
900 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017

Convection associated with Dora has continued to decrease this
evening and is now separated from the low-level center.
A blend of the various objective and subjective Dvorak intensity
estimates yields an initial intensity of 45 kt, which could be
generous. The tropical cyclone is forecast to continue moving
over decreasing sea surface temperatures which should caused
continued weakening, and Dora is forecast to become a remnant low
in 12 to 24 hours.

Dora has turned more westward since the previous advisory, but the
long-term motion is still west-northwestward or 285/11 kt. A
west-northwestward to westward motion to the south of a low- to
mid-level ridge should continue until dissipation occurs in two to
three days. The updated NHC track forecast is close to the
previous advisory and lies between the multi-model consensus
and the more southern ECMWF solution.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 19.7N 112.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 20.1N 113.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 20.9N 115.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 29/1200Z 21.5N 116.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 30/0000Z 21.7N 118.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

Is over.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Dora Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042017
900 AM MDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Dora has been devoid of deep convection for more than 12 hours, and
the cyclone has degenerated into a remnant low composed of mostly
low-level stratocumulus clouds. Dvorak satellite classifications
support an intensity of 30 kt, and that is the intensity used for
this advisory. Redevelopment of significant convection is not
expected due to unfavorable SSTs of 22C-23C, and dissipation is
expected to occur in 36-48 h.

The initial motion estimate is 290/09 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge
to the north of the Dora should keep the weakening remnant low
moving in a general west-northwestward motion for the next couple of
days. The new NHC forecast track is an extension of the previous
advisory track and lies close to the consensus model TCVN.

This is the last advisory on Dora unless regeneration occurs. For
additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 20.1N 113.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 29/0000Z 20.7N 115.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 29/1200Z 21.3N 116.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 30/0000Z 21.8N 118.6W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart