WPAC: NANMADOL - Post-Tropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6044
Age: 32
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

Re: WPAC: NANMADOL - Tropical Storm

#81 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Jul 02, 2017 8:17 am

Nanmadol might be headed directly over either Ishigakijima or Iriomotejima. Hopefully we can get some good obs from the two.

Image
0 likes   
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6961
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: WPAC: NANMADOL - Tropical Storm

#82 Postby Alyono » Sun Jul 02, 2017 8:32 am

It's a good thing private industry does not have to follow JTWC and JMA in terms with the intensity
0 likes   

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: NANMADOL - Tropical Storm

#83 Postby euro6208 » Sun Jul 02, 2017 8:43 am

So the folks in Miyako and Yaeyama Islands preparing for just a minimal TS? When their agencies are underestimating it?

Image
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22473
Age: 66
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: WPAC: NANMADOL - Tropical Storm

#84 Postby wxman57 » Sun Jul 02, 2017 8:51 am

Digital-TC-Chaser wrote:With those radar presentations alone NANMADOL looks a Typhoon. The sat-pic's just
give more weight. What happened to the jma recon missions doe's anyone know?


I think I remember that those recon missions may start in August. Not sure, though. Here's an article on the topic, though it doesn't say when.

https://weather.com/news/weather/news/typhoon-observation-western-pacific-recon-aircraft
0 likes   

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6961
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: WPAC: NANMADOL - Tropical Storm

#85 Postby Alyono » Sun Jul 02, 2017 8:54 am

wxman57 wrote:
Digital-TC-Chaser wrote:With those radar presentations alone NANMADOL looks a Typhoon. The sat-pic's just
give more weight. What happened to the jma recon missions doe's anyone know?


I think I remember that those recon missions may start in August. Not sure, though.


I believe they are synoptic surveillance, not eye penetrations
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22473
Age: 66
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: WPAC: NANMADOL - Tropical Storm

#86 Postby wxman57 » Sun Jul 02, 2017 8:58 am

JMA up to 40kt 10-min winds now. About 45kts 1-min.
0 likes   

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: NANMADOL - Tropical Storm

#87 Postby euro6208 » Sun Jul 02, 2017 9:29 am

Image
Image

Those poor people have no clue what is in store for them after the facts.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
doomhaMwx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2398
Age: 25
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:01 am
Location: Baguio/Benguet, Philippines
Contact:

Re: WPAC: NANMADOL - Tropical Storm

#88 Postby doomhaMwx » Sun Jul 02, 2017 9:46 am

FINALLY! We have a good ASCAT pass...

Image

JMA and JTWC are currently on track in intensity, as that ASCAT pass @ 12:40z is showing winds near 40kts at most...
0 likes   

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: NANMADOL - Tropical Storm

#89 Postby euro6208 » Sun Jul 02, 2017 9:49 am

Imran_doomhaMwx wrote:FINALLY! We have a good ASCAT pass...



JMA and JTWC are currently on track in intensity, as that ASCAT pass @ 12:40z is showing winds near 40kts at most...


ASCAT doesn't go above 60 knots so it's low biased.
Last edited by euro6208 on Sun Jul 02, 2017 9:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6961
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: WPAC: NANMADOL - Tropical Storm

#90 Postby Alyono » Sun Jul 02, 2017 9:50 am

Imran_doomhaMwx wrote:FINALLY! We have a good ASCAT pass...

Image

JMA and JTWC are currently on track in intensity, as that ASCAT pass @ 12:40z is showing winds near 40kts at most...


that is a 25 km resolution. The core is smaller than that. ASCAT CANNOT resolve this core
2 likes   

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: NANMADOL - Tropical Storm

#91 Postby euro6208 » Sun Jul 02, 2017 9:53 am

Imran_doomhaMwx wrote:FINALLY! We have a good ASCAT pass...



JMA and JTWC are currently on track in intensity, as that ASCAT pass @ 12:40z is showing winds near 40kts at most...


How many Atlantic storms do you see with that kind of presentation on ASCAT yet still above everything (recon)?
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
doomhaMwx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2398
Age: 25
Joined: Tue Apr 18, 2017 4:01 am
Location: Baguio/Benguet, Philippines
Contact:

Re: WPAC: NANMADOL - Tropical Storm

#92 Postby doomhaMwx » Sun Jul 02, 2017 9:57 am

Alyono wrote:
Imran_doomhaMwx wrote:FINALLY! We have a good ASCAT pass...

Image

JMA and JTWC are currently on track in intensity, as that ASCAT pass @ 12:40z is showing winds near 40kts at most...


that is a 25 km resolution. The core is smaller than that. ASCAT CANNOT resolve this core

Well, so that's how it goes... I didn't know that...
0 likes   
Like my content? Consider giving a tip.

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: NANMADOL - Tropical Storm

#93 Postby euro6208 » Sun Jul 02, 2017 10:00 am

The eye cleared out even more as it approaching a possible landfall.

Image
Image
Image
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

NotoSans
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1366
Age: 24
Joined: Sun Sep 27, 2015 1:15 am
Location: Hong Kong
Contact:

Re: WPAC: NANMADOL - Tropical Storm

#94 Postby NotoSans » Sun Jul 02, 2017 10:02 am

Looks like a very typical STS to me. Agree that the agencies are underestimating this but I don't think it's a TY yet. Hope that we can get some good obs from Ishigakijima.
1 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC and NWS products.

Dave C
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 868
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 4:36 pm
Location: Middleboro, Mass.(midway between Cape Cod and Boston)

Re: WPAC: NANMADOL - Tropical Storm

#95 Postby Dave C » Sun Jul 02, 2017 10:05 am

Nearest island not even close to tropical storm force winds, should be one of those quick ramp up in wind situations.
0 likes   

User avatar
mrbagyo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3613
Age: 31
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
Location: 14.13N 120.98E
Contact:

Re: WPAC: NANMADOL - Tropical Storm

#96 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Jul 02, 2017 10:15 am

Image
16.1m/s @ the New Ishigaki Airport
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6961
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: WPAC: NANMADOL - Tropical Storm

#97 Postby Alyono » Sun Jul 02, 2017 10:21 am

is that 10 minute? If so, that is close to TS force 1 minute

we may not have the peak winds lasting for 10 minutes. Would love to see the gusts
0 likes   

User avatar
mrbagyo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3613
Age: 31
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
Location: 14.13N 120.98E
Contact:

Re: WPAC: NANMADOL - Tropical Storm

#98 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Jul 02, 2017 10:27 am

Alyono wrote:is that 10 minute? If so, that is close to TS force 1 minute

we may not have the peak winds lasting for 10 minutes. Would love to see the gusts


I think that's 10 minute.
I didnt capture the bottom part in my screenshot but it says there that maximum instantaneous wind speed is at 21.1 m/s at 23:52
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: NANMADOL - Tropical Storm

#99 Postby euro6208 » Sun Jul 02, 2017 10:30 am

About to make landfall in Ishigaki. Maybe cross between the island and Iriomote? Too close.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

User avatar
1900hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6044
Age: 32
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:04 pm
Location: Houston, TX
Contact:

Re: WPAC: NANMADOL - Tropical Storm

#100 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Jul 02, 2017 10:33 am

Ishigaki was already at 1000.9 mb at midnight JST (1500Z). JMA's 998 mb pressure estimate is clearly too high.

Here's the latest IR shot.

Image
0 likes   
Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.

Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/


Return to “2017”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 30 guests