WPAC: NANMADOL - Post-Tropical

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Re: WPAC: NANMADOL - Tropical Storm

#61 Postby doomhaMwx » Sun Jul 02, 2017 5:14 am

euro6208 wrote:First typhoon of the season is here and the agencies are ignoring radar let alone satellite imagery. Hate to say it but both JTWC and JMA disappoints. They also like to ignore ASCAT for many other systems.


JTWC did mention the radar imagery in their warning #2 prognostic reasoning... Is it really necessarily a Typhoon now with that radar presentation? But I agree that the 35kt estimate @ 06z is rather low...
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Re: WPAC: NANMADOL - Tropical Storm

#62 Postby euro6208 » Sun Jul 02, 2017 5:16 am

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Re: WPAC: NANMADOL - Tropical Storm

#63 Postby NewbieAboutcyclones » Sun Jul 02, 2017 5:23 am

:eek: :eek: :eek:
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Re: WPAC: NANMADOL - Tropical Storm

#64 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sun Jul 02, 2017 5:34 am

Imran_doomhaMwx wrote:
euro6208 wrote:First typhoon of the season is here and the agencies are ignoring radar let alone satellite imagery. Hate to say it but both JTWC and JMA disappoints. They also like to ignore ASCAT for many other systems.


JTWC did mention the radar imagery in their warning #2 prognostic reasoning... Is it really necessarily a Typhoon now with that radar presentation? But I agree that the 35kt estimate @ 06z is rather low...


With those radar presentations alone NANMADOL looks a Typhoon. The sat-pic's just
give more weight. What happened to the jma recon missions doe's anyone know?
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Re: WPAC: NANMADOL - Tropical Storm

#65 Postby euro6208 » Sun Jul 02, 2017 5:47 am

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A pinhole eye trying to develop. I had to zoom in on the radars just to show the feature. Incredible.
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Re: WPAC: NANMADOL - Tropical Storm

#66 Postby doomhaMwx » Sun Jul 02, 2017 5:51 am

Digital-TC-Chaser wrote:What happened to the jma recon missions doe's anyone know?

It's already about a year since the news came out... I haven't seen any updates yet...
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Re: WPAC: NANMADOL - Tropical Storm

#67 Postby doomhaMwx » Sun Jul 02, 2017 5:55 am

Updated track file...

05W NANMADOL 170702 1200 23.7N 125.0E WPAC 45 989
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Re: WPAC: NANMADOL - Tropical Storm

#68 Postby RL3AO » Sun Jul 02, 2017 6:00 am

1900hurricane wrote:Big difference in Dvorak fixes between JTWC and SAB. I'm more inclined to agree with SAB.


I'm sorry, but T1.5 is a IMD level joke.
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Re: WPAC: NANMADOL - Tropical Storm

#69 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jul 02, 2017 6:03 am

And I thought the CPHC was bad.
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Re: WPAC: NANMADOL - Tropical Storm

#70 Postby euro6208 » Sun Jul 02, 2017 6:07 am

How on earth can they ignore this?

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Re: WPAC: NANMADOL - Tropical Storm

#71 Postby euro6208 » Sun Jul 02, 2017 6:08 am

Imran_doomhaMwx wrote:Updated track file...

05W NANMADOL 170702 1200 23.7N 125.0E WPAC 45 989


At least they are up to 45 knots. JMA still at 35...
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Re: WPAC: NANMADOL - Tropical Storm

#72 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Jul 02, 2017 6:20 am

Imran_doomhaMwx wrote:Updated track file...

05W NANMADOL 170702 1200 23.7N 125.0E WPAC 45 989

Ha, it isn't even 12Z yet.
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Re: WPAC: NANMADOL - Tropical Storm

#73 Postby euro6208 » Sun Jul 02, 2017 6:22 am

.
1900hurricane wrote:
Imran_doomhaMwx wrote:Updated track file...

05W NANMADOL 170702 1200 23.7N 125.0E WPAC 45 989

Ha, it isn't even 12Z yet.


Yeah trying to catchup. :lol:
Last edited by euro6208 on Sun Jul 02, 2017 6:39 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: NANMADOL - Tropical Storm

#74 Postby euro6208 » Sun Jul 02, 2017 6:39 am

The models never saw this.
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Re: WPAC: NANMADOL - Tropical Storm

#75 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Jul 02, 2017 7:03 am

I have doubts that Nanmadol ever reached typhoon intensity. It may have been pretty close though, and it certainly has been more intense than a low end tropical storm. If Nanmadol did reach typhoon intensity, it was probably near 09Z, about the time of this F-18 pass. I'd go 60 kt myself at that moment, although I could be somewhat sympathetic to a 65 kt intensity estimate. Nanmadol's failure to continue holding that structure to the present moment gives me pause though (not to say it looks awful now, just not as impressive). Like many other similar tropical cyclones, Nanmadol's small core has helped it change intensity fairly quickly.

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Re: WPAC: NANMADOL - Tropical Storm

#76 Postby euro6208 » Sun Jul 02, 2017 7:11 am

1900hurricane wrote:I have doubts that Nanmadol ever reached typhoon intensity. It may have been pretty close though, and it certainly has been more intense than a low end tropical storm. If Nanmadol did reach typhoon intensity, it was probably near 09Z, about the time of this F-18 pass. I'd go 60 kt myself at that moment, although I ould be somewhat sympathetic to a 65 kt intensity estimate. Nanmadol's failure to continue holding that structure to the present moment gives me pause though (not to say it looks awful now, just not as impressive). Like many other similar tropical cyclones, Nanmadol's small core has helped it change intensity fairly quickly.





Weird that in the WPAC looks are everything. In the Atlantic it ain't (recon?). :lol: Don't you agree though that it looks much better than those Atlantic hurricanes let alone a tropical storm??? in the Atlantic? :lol: Been following TC for years and it is absurd.
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Re: WPAC: NANMADOL - Tropical Storm

#77 Postby euro6208 » Sun Jul 02, 2017 7:26 am

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Re: WPAC: NANMADOL - Tropical Storm

#78 Postby euro6208 » Sun Jul 02, 2017 7:28 am

I can't imagine how much ACE is getting lost with this.
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Re: WPAC: NANMADOL - Tropical Storm

#79 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Jul 02, 2017 7:58 am

JMA up to 40 kt for 12Z.

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TS 1703 (Nanmadol)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 2 July 2017

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 2 July>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N23°30' (23.5°)
E124°50' (124.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 35 km/h (18 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 150 km (80 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 3 July>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N25°50' (25.8°)
E124°00' (124.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 3 July>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N29°10' (29.2°)
E124°40' (124.7°)
Direction and speed of movement N 30 km/h (17 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 4 July>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N35°20' (35.3°)
E132°25' (132.4°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 40 km/h (22 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 280 km (150 NM)

<Forecast for 12 UTC, 5 July>
Intensity -
LOW
Center position of probability circle N38°00' (38.0°)
E144°00' (144.0°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 45 km/h (24 kt)
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Radius of probability circle 410 km (220 NM)
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Re: WPAC: NANMADOL - Tropical Storm

#80 Postby euro6208 » Sun Jul 02, 2017 8:08 am

Sigh.

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