ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

[AxaltaRacing24]

it look remain of td4 almost gone may not even gave rain to south fl it weaking quick

It might not be anything special but it will definitely enhance our thunderstorms and moisten up the air.

[tailgater]

Well the elongated swirl I was watching yesterday has now become a bit more circular with a T-storm almost directly over it. Look at the loop of 73.5W 23.3N. Small but trackabe

[Hurricane Andrew]

Well the elongated swirl I was watching yesterday has now become a bit more circular with a T-storm almost directly over it. Look at the loop of 73.5W 23.3N. Small but trackabe

Aww, is cute baby storm!

[tailgater]

I don't how to post the Visible loops(computer idiot).
I'm glad that the models aren't doing anything with this in the short term or long term either really but I don't like systems moving through the Fla. straits. I'm sure thousands do and never develop but you remember the bad ones that do.
Plus, not much else to watch on the Atlantic side.

[boca]

Tailgater 94L is the size of my nail on my pinky finger

[tropicwatch]

I don't how to post the Visible loops(computer idiot).
I'm glad that the models aren't doing anything with this in the short term or long term either really but I don't like systems moving through the Fla. straits. I'm sure thousands do and never develop but you remember the bad ones that do.
Plus, not much else to watch on the Atlantic side.

Not very impressive.

[psyclone]

PWAT out of Ruskin was only 1.56" but higher octane air will be advancing west later on which should lead to good storm chances on the west coast...especially if we can get a seabreeze...an increasingly tall order when the water temps are in the upper 80's with a moderate east flow. it's definitely been a more thundery Summer interior and west thus far for Florida.

[Stormcenter]

I still would not write this off. IMO

[lrak]

Looking better to me also. tailgater may have us all turning our heads tomorrow I haven't seen any outflow boundaries

[Frank P]

Looking better to me also. tailgater may have us all turning our heads tomorrow

yep, and only game in town too.. got a little spin, convection is slowing building up, water temps good, who knows.... certainly heading for the GOM... its like a little Class A minor league wanna be ex TD... trying to make a comeback?

[wxman57]

You guys must be looking at something different than I am. I see a tropical wave moving into the coast of Florida. Pressures are almost 1020mb! There's no circulation, no organized convection, only a wave axis in a relatively high pressure area. Development chances are pretty close to zero. The wave will cause increased thunderstorm activity across south Florida over the next 12-24 hours then move across the northern Gulf and inland along the mid Gulf coast, where it will cause increased shower activity. It has only a slightly better chance of making a comeback than I do in being selected for the All-Star game next July.

[tropicwatch]

We are looking at the area that is in the vicinity that the NHC had it at 6:50am edt.

The remnants of T.D. Four continue situated in the SW N Atlc
waters while it further weakens. A 1015 mb low pressure is
associated with it, which is located near 22N71W along with a
surface trough that extends from 25N71W to the low to 20N71W.

[Stormcenter]

You better start practicing your swing then.

You guys must be looking at something different than I am. I see a tropical wave moving into the coast of Florida. Pressures are almost 1020mb! There's no circulation, no organized convection, only a wave axis in a relatively high pressure area. Development chances are pretty close to zero. The wave will cause increased thunderstorm activity across south Florida over the next 12-24 hours then move across the northern Gulf and inland along the mid Gulf coast, where it will cause increased shower activity. It has only a slightly better chance of making a comeback than I do in being selected for the All-Star game next July.

http://wxman57.com/images/4f.JPG

[AdamFirst]

My area's getting training showers and storms as the northern have of the wave axis pushes onto the coast. Most rain we've gotten down here in a week or two.

[wxman57]

We are looking at the area that is in the vicinity that the NHC had it at 6:50am edt.

The remnants of T.D. Four continue situated in the SW N Atlc
waters while it further weakens. A 1015 mb low pressure is
associated with it, which is located near 22N71W along with a
surface trough that extends from 25N71W to the low to 20N71W.

There's nothing there. Certainly no 1015mb low center - pressures are 1019-1020mb in the region they mention. The wave is approaching the coast of Florida. You can see it clearly in the TPW loop moving into the coast of Florida.

[tropicwatch]

Don't know what to say wxman57 that is what was in this mornings TWD. The current vorticity map makes it look like something there also. Unless it traveled a couple hundred miles in 6 hours.

[GCANE]

Air is very juiced around FL.
5500 CAPE east of Miami.
Over land, nearly completely saturated surface to tropopause.
Relatively decent Theta-E ridge in the east GOM.

Thuderstorms over FL should explode this afternoon.

Who knows.
If this runs thru the Straits with LL Vort intact, 355K PV forecast is showing an opportunity to vertically expand when or if it gets into the GOM.

[AJC3]

Don't know what to say wxman57 that is what was in this mornings TWD. The current vorticity map makes it look like something there also. Unless it traveled a couple hundred miles in 6 hours.

Keep in mind that the 650 AM TWD was based off the surface analysis at 06Z/200 AM EDT. That was about 10 hours before your post, so there was some serious time lag going on there.

Another thing to keep in mind is that the H85-H70 vort lobe associated with this wave got horribly deformed. While the leading edge of the wave is crossing south Florida, a significant vort axis extends ESE from near Andros Island to north of Hispanola. This wave looks like it has split in two.

[Blown Away]

Serious squally tropical weather all day from former TD4... Seems like a very long time since we've had a true westward moving tropical wave pass through. BH seems stronger this year, maybe I'm wrong...

[wxman57]

Currently, the wave axis can be clearly seen in the surface obs across Florida. Former TD 4 is causing quite a few storms across the southern Florida Peninsula this afternoon.