ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

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AtlanticWind
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

#1201 Postby AtlanticWind » Mon Jul 10, 2017 10:42 pm

Miami Storm Tracker wrote:The whole run is complete already?

No 36 hours is all
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

#1202 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Mon Jul 10, 2017 10:44 pm

Thanks Rock,

Guess we will see how it looks in the morning.
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

#1203 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Mon Jul 10, 2017 10:44 pm

Thanks Boca.
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

#1204 Postby ROCK » Mon Jul 10, 2017 10:49 pm

At 54 moving thru the straits Sflo what's left of it anyway..it might rain in FL in 54hrs
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

#1205 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Mon Jul 10, 2017 10:50 pm

so my house in Key Largo should be good
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

#1206 Postby bamajammer4eva » Mon Jul 10, 2017 10:51 pm

Its dropping development of the East Atlantic wave
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

#1207 Postby boca » Mon Jul 10, 2017 11:16 pm

Cloud tops are warming it's going poof
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

#1208 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Jul 10, 2017 11:19 pm

I wouldn't give up on it until there's no more trackable entity
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

#1209 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Jul 10, 2017 11:31 pm

Looks like according to shear maps shear has increased to 30kts and looking ahead it looks like 20kts of shear all the way through the Bahamas but in the GOM the shear is almost nonexistent so if a trackable entity gets there that would be the place to watch as east of Florida this wave will have to deal with shear
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

#1210 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Jul 10, 2017 11:46 pm

I just can't see recon going out tomorrow or anytime before Friday really, recon might be needed when it reaches the GOM
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Models

#1211 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Tue Jul 11, 2017 3:14 am

UKMET no development over the next 5 days.Image
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Models

#1212 Postby GCANE » Tue Jul 11, 2017 4:51 am

Very likely this is a GOM storm.
COAMPS keeps it weak thru the Bahamas mostly due to low mid-level moisture.
Gets it organized in the mid GOM.
LLC could go thru the Straits of FL

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/coamps-web/ ... 50&tau=999
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

#1213 Postby Nimbus » Tue Jul 11, 2017 5:17 am

Its been under shear for a while now the low level energy that is connected to surface heat is already passing -70w weakening by the hour. Looks like Key West might get some rain and a little breeze from the pressure gradient.
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

#1214 Postby wxman57 » Tue Jul 11, 2017 5:34 am

Look way west. The disturbance is around 25-26N and 71-73W this morning. What was observed yesterday was a "hot spot" as the wave interacted with an upper-trof. As is typically the case, the squalls remained stationary as the wave moved on by. The convection decreased as the wave continued moving out of the area. There will be no recon as there's nothing to fly into.

It's easy to find the wave on a wv loop. Here's a static image:

Image
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

#1215 Postby GeneratorPower » Tue Jul 11, 2017 6:28 am

wxman57 wrote:Look way west. The disturbance is around 25-26N and 71-73W this morning. What was observed yesterday was a "hot spot" as the wave interacted with an upper-trof. As is typically the case, the squalls remained stationary as the wave moved on by. The convection decreased as the wave continued moving out of the area. There will be no recon as there's nothing to fly into.

It's easy to find the wave on a wv loop. Here's a static image:

http://wxman57.com/images/4c.JPG


Raise your hand if you're surprised like me that there's actually water vapor still present in the Atlantic basin after this SAL outbreak.
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

#1216 Postby wxman57 » Tue Jul 11, 2017 7:04 am

GeneratorPower wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Look way west. The disturbance is around 25-26N and 71-73W this morning. What was observed yesterday was a "hot spot" as the wave interacted with an upper-trof. As is typically the case, the squalls remained stationary as the wave moved on by. The convection decreased as the wave continued moving out of the area. There will be no recon as there's nothing to fly into.

It's easy to find the wave on a wv loop. Here's a static image:

http://wxman57.com/images/4c.JPG


Raise your hand if you're surprised like me that there's actually water vapor still present in the Atlantic basin after this SAL outbreak.


SAL is weaker than the past 3 seasons. There's plenty of moisture out there in the MDR. It's normal July conditions out there this season.
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

#1217 Postby wxman57 » Tue Jul 11, 2017 7:28 am

You can see the wave axis in the surface obs around 71W. The TPW loop indicates that the moisture is being strung out NW-SE now. Development chances are very, very low.

Image
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

#1218 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Tue Jul 11, 2017 7:38 am

I agree it has little chance. The Sun Sentinel paper in the local section said this is a re-invest. Invest 04L. I think it's fake news :lol:
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

#1219 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 11, 2017 8:01 am

The 12z Best Track position.

As of 12:00 UTC Jul 11, 2017:

Location: 23.1°N 68.5°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1014 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1016 mb
Radius of Circulation: 100 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 60 NM


Image
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

#1220 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jul 11, 2017 8:09 am

Convection is not very organized at the moment but there is still a lot of vorticity and would not take much but some sustained convection for this to happen definitely need to be watched still. the wave axis is orientated east to west an watching that eastern side is the best shot if convection can sustain its self

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Last edited by Aric Dunn on Tue Jul 11, 2017 8:11 am, edited 1 time in total.
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