ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

[Stormcenter]

Now let's see what happens when the remains make it into the Gulf this weekend.

[Fishing]

Convection is not very organized at the moment but there is still a lot of vorticity and would not take much but some sustained convection for this to happen definitely need to be watched still. the wave axis is orientated east to west an watching that eastern side is the best shot if convection can sustain its self

I wont be around much today. I start a new job.

Good Luck on your new job Aric! We'll miss ya today but will see
you later!

[wxman57]

Here's a good shot of former TD Four using the GOES-16 slider website. It's now a convectionless wave moving through the Bahamas. No reason for it to ever get much more organized than it is now.

[GCANE]

After following this for the last few days, it is apparent that TC generation has been inhibited by the lack of mid-layer moisture.
In this environment, air parcels cool off from evaporation as they lift and latent heating is ineffective to create a warm core.
Looking at the latest GFS run, this key ingrediate will change as the wave approaches the Straits of Florida.
In about 48 hrs 700-400mb RH will increase.
However, 200mb PV will still be relatively strong to keep a lid on strong development.
Judging by the 200mb PV forecast, it appears the mid-layer vort will track thru the Straits.
As it enters the GOM, its is forecast to run into a much more favorable environment for development.
One feature of high importance is a Theta-E ridge that it is forecast to run into.
Also mid-layer moisture and TPW will be much more conducive for development.
200mb PV will be nearly non-exitant as well.

[Stormcenter]

Great post and agree 100%.

After following this for the last few days, it is apparent that TC generation has been inhibited by the lack of mid-layer moisture.
In this environment, air parcels cool off from evaporation as they lift and latent heating is ineffective to create a warm core.
Looking at the latest GFS run, this key ingrediate will change as the wave approaches the Straits of Florida.
In about 48 hrs 700-400mb RH will increase.
However, 200mb PV will still be relatively strong to keep a lid on strong development.
Judging by the 200mb PV forecast, it appears the mid-layer vort will track thru the Straits.
As it enters the GOM, its is forecast to run into a much more favorable environment for development.
One feature of high importance is a Theta-E ridge that it is forecast to run into.
Also mid-layer moisture and TPW will be much more conducive for development.
200mb PV will be nearly non-exitant as well.

[cycloneye]

With only a few clouds no surprise about no Rocon.

INVEST SCHEDULED FOR 11/2100Z ON REMNANTS OF TD 04A
CANCELED BY NHC AT 11/1200Z

[GCANE]

Great post and agree 100%.

After following this for the last few days, it is apparent that TC generation has been inhibited by the lack of mid-layer moisture.
In this environment, air parcels cool off from evaporation as they lift and latent heating is ineffective to create a warm core.
Looking at the latest GFS run, this key ingrediate will change as the wave approaches the Straits of Florida.
In about 48 hrs 700-400mb RH will increase.
However, 200mb PV will still be relatively strong to keep a lid on strong development.
Judging by the 200mb PV forecast, it appears the mid-layer vort will track thru the Straits.
As it enters the GOM, its is forecast to run into a much more favorable environment for development.
One feature of high importance is a Theta-E ridge that it is forecast to run into.
Also mid-layer moisture and TPW will be much more conducive for development.
200mb PV will be nearly non-exitant as well.

Much thanks!

[Ntxw]

12z GFS and Parallel doesn't do much with this in the gulf. Increase surge of moisture in the NGulf for rains. Euro had area of lower pressures in the Ngulf.

[tailgater]

Yes no surprise, I'm watching a area near 70.0 W 23 N, an elongated spin might hang on until conditions get a little better, if they get a little better. The system is void of deep convection but the overall circulation/wave axis is as defined as it been in days, now that it seems to be leaving that MLC behind

[Orlando]

Convection is not very organized at the moment but there is still a lot of vorticity and would not take much but some sustained convection for this to happen definitely need to be watched still. the wave axis is orientated east to west an watching that eastern side is the best shot if convection can sustain its self

I wont be around much today. I start a new job.

Congratulations on your new job, Aric. Please don't stay away too long. We need you here to keep us all safe.

[TheStormExpert]

I'd say this is officially dead. Might be awhile before we Don or even anything else of interest as the Atlantic is rather hostile.

[Stormcenter]

For the time being it is....later on it could be a different story. I am referring to TD4 remnants.

I'd say this is officially dead. Might be awhile before we Don or even anything else of interest as the Atlantic is rather hostile.

[tailgater]

Convection starting to build around that elongated swirl I mentioned earlier, I would think this is about D min. so it might expand far awhile.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/04L/flash-rb-long.html

[gatorcane]

hopefully the wave will flare up even more and bring some good rains to SE Florida. My area has been on the dry side for several weeks with a pretty stubborn Bermuda High and some dry mid-level air around.

[boca]

We only had one rain event here in S FL and it dry as a bone. I was hoping for a minimal tropical storm out of this but I'll probably get a five minute shower.

[wxman57]

We only had one rain event here in S FL and it dry as a bone. I was hoping for a minimal tropical storm out of this but I'll probably get a five minute shower.

The wave should provide enough lift for quite a few daytime showers/storms across south Florida by Thursday.

[BeRad954]

I'd say this is officially dead. Might be awhile before we Don or even anything else of interest as the Atlantic is rather hostile.

I know sort jumping the gun, but anybody notice large amount of convection from the wave that just came off the coast of Africa?

... I'm itching to track something

[Nimbus]

Our East coast TUTT saved the day again for Florida, just a nice juicy wave to replenish the Everglades. Many places in Florida have had watering restrictions, and lawns always need those afternoon showers. Not sure I can even remember a hurricane that developed from a shallow wave in the GOM. Some of the models were showing a stalled system which might give something time to convect and build a pressure gradient.

[AJC3]

Our East coast TUTT saved the day again for Florida, just a nice juicy wave to replenish the Everglades. Many places in Florida have had watering restrictions, and lawns always need those afternoon showers. Not sure I can even remember a hurricane that developed from a shallow wave in the GOM. Some of the models were showing a stalled system which might give something time to convect and build a pressure gradient.

A few things I want to point out here, and I'm not trying to be a hardass - I just want to make sure people understand and use the "TUTT" nomenclature correctly.

1. There is no such thing as the "East Coast TUTT". The semi-permanent TUTT is an upper level mid-Atlantic Ocean feature. Occasionally, pieces of the TUTT fracture off and retrograde westward beneath the upper level reflection of the Bermuda-Azores high. Those features are referred to as "TUTT lows". As is the case with the TUTT, TUTT lows have a much stronger reflection at around 200MB than they do lower in the atmosphere, say around 500MB.

2. Not all upper or mid to upper lows in the Subtropics are TUTT lows. Only those which fracture off from the TUTT are. I have seen many people, including mets within and outside my agency incorrectly call features "TUTT lows" that aren't. In my AFD, I make it a point to call an upper level feature that doesn't emanate from the TUTT a "TUTT type low", but only if it has the same structure (i.e it's stronger at 200-300MB than at 400-500MB). I will also correct my fellow mets that I work with when and if they make this same mistake.

3. In this case, I am pretty sure this upper low came from the base of an east coast/western Atlantic mid-upper level trough, which is a frequent occurrence. I'll check some NHEM upper level maps from the past week just to make sure that this is the case.

[floridasun78]

it look remain of td4 almost gone may not even gave rain to south fl it weaking quick