ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

AL, 94, 2017070100, , BEST, 0, 100N, 285W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS005, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 005,
AL, 94, 2017070106, , BEST, 0, 100N, 292W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS005, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 005,
AL, 94, 2017070112, , BEST, 0, 100N, 298W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS005, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 005,
AL, 94, 2017070118, , BEST, 0, 100N, 304W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS005, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 005,
AL, 94, 2017070200, , BEST, 0, 100N, 310W, 15, 1013, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS005, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 005,
AL, 94, 2017070206, , BEST, 0, 100N, 315W, 15, 1013, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS005, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 005,
AL, 94, 2017070212, , BEST, 0, 100N, 319W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS005, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 005,
AL, 94, 2017070218, , BEST, 0, 100N, 322W, 20, 1012, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS005, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 005,
AL, 94, 2017070300, , BEST, 0, 100N, 325W, 20, 1011, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 140, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 005, SPAWNINVEST, al752017 to al9420

Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this area.

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[cycloneye]

Models only here.

[Hurricaneman]

This may be one to watch in the long run but interest in the lesser Antilles should monitor this one carefully as any deviation south could put the northern lesser Antilles in the crossfire of a tropical cyclone

[AutoPenalti]

This may be one for the history books.

[weathaguyry]

I'm not sure, something with this gives me a funny feeling that this will be a Hurricane, it's giving me bad vibes about the NC coast up to the Canadian Maritimes, and Don also seems like a good name for a Cat 3 Hurricane, and this will either be very wrong, or it will get quoted to the last page of "Don-Remnants" as the one that got it right, although I highly doubt it

[Nimbus]

They upped the development chances to 60 percent so it will be interesting to see what the NHC is thinking.

[msbee]

Those of us in the Northern Caribbean islands are watching this one carefully.

[cycloneye]

SHIP goes up to almost cat 2.Eagered to see HWRF.

[WeatherEmperor]

Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I'm not sure, something with this gives me a funny feeling that this will be a Hurricane, it's giving me bad vibes about the NC coast up to the Canadian Maritimes, and Don also seems like a good name for a Cat 3 Hurricane, and this will either be very wrong, or it will get quoted to the last page of "Don-Remnants" as the one that got it right, although I highly doubt it

Who knows, could end up like Don from 2011.

[Frank2]

EC trough might help things - GFS shows a strong trough after Day 7...

[Bocadude85]

Some hurricane history for everyone. Only 9 hurricanes have hit the US East Coast in the month of July. North Carolina has had 4 hurricane landfalls, South Carolina has had 3 hurricane landfalls, Florida has had 2 hurricane landfalls. Massachusetts was hit by a 70mph TS in the month of July in 1916 as well.

[OuterBanker]

FYI, NC has not been hit with a July hurricane since way back in 2014. Arthur was the earliest land falling hurricane in NC history.

[floridasun78]

i remember doing active season we have July hurr want trough Caribbean by Jamaica in 2005 that was busy hurr season it was hurr On July 5, Hurricane Dennis formed in the eastern Caribbean; it crossed Grenada before intensifying into a Category 4 the strongest ever recorded in July with a pressure of 930 mbar

[floridasun78]

[MetroMike]

FYI, NC has not been hit with a July hurricane since way Bach in 2014. Authur was the earliest land falling hurricane in NC history.

Way back in 2014? If this develops we should have a good idea of it being a fish storm or something that could hit the CONUS in a week or so.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I don't trust the gfs 48 hrs out. Remember with cindy it had her making landfall in apalachee bay or the eastern part of Florida panhandle when every other model was showing LA/TX. Im willing to bet that trough will not be near as strong in a week as the gfs is depicting.

[weathaguyry]

I don't trust the gfs 48 hrs out. Remember with cindy it had her making landfall in apalachee bay or the eastern part of Florida panhandle when every other model was showing LA/TX. Im willing to bet that trough will not be near as strong in a week as the gfs is depicting.

That could possibly cause some trouble for people from NC northward

[BlowHard]

Before it gets to you guys it looks likely to go over Puerto Rico.....No SAL to speak of, no shear, warm water. Someone tell me I'm wrong....

[TheStormExpert]

Here is something to remember. The GFS tends to overestimate how strong the troughs are and therefore underestimates ridges.