EPAC: EUGENE - Post-Tropical

[RL3AO]

Intense convection in the last frame on the north side of the eyewall.

[hurricanes1234]

Indeed! Starting to wrap all the way around in that last frame.

[Yellow Evan]

T5.0 on this frame.

[SouthDadeFish]

That GMI pass is mighty impressive. I strongly suspect Eugene has max winds greater than 70 kt at the moment. Thankfully this storm is well away from land.

[SouthDadeFish]

Looks like the first major hurricane of the 2017 EPAC season is on the way....

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 JUL 2017 Time : 034537 UTC
Lat : 14:29:32 N Lon : 113:33:26 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.0 / 973.3mb/ 90.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.0 5.5 5.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -37.2C Cloud Region Temp : -67.4C

Scene Type : EYE

[Kingarabian]

According to ACTF, 70kts to 100kts in 3 hours? Heck of an RI rate.

That's why i felt that initial 70kts was too low.

[Kingarabian]

Looks like the first major hurricane of the 2017 EPAC season is on the way....

[img]http://i.imgur.com/i18ymDi.jpg[/mg]

On queue.

[Yellow Evan]

Given TAFB was T4.0 last adv cycle, constraints limit it to T5.0. So even if SAB goes T5.5, I wouldn't bet at 100 knots at the next advisory.

[hurricanes1234]

Eye is showing up quite clearly in visible imagery now.

[Kingarabian]

Given TAFB was T4.0 last adv cycle, constraints limit it to T5.0. So even if SAB goes T5.5, I wouldn't bet at 100 knots at the next advisory.

ADT and SAB should be enough. And that microwave pass should be enough.

[1900hurricane]

Unless I'm reading the f-deck wrong, TAFB only got a 3.5 at 00Z, which combined with SAB's 4.5, probably yielded the 65 kt in the preliminary best track and the 70 kt in the advisory.

[Yellow Evan]

T5.5 this frame. Seems King was right on the microwave; there's just no semi-objective way that I know of to measure intensity using it sans SATCON/AMSU which take a while to update on CIMSS site.

[Kingarabian]

Unless I'm reading the f-deck wrong, TAFB only got a 3.5 at 00Z, which combined with SAB's 4.5, probably yielded the 65 kt in the preliminary best track and the 70 kt in the advisory.

How haa SAB all of a sudden become more bullish compared to TAFB lol.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Wouldn't surprise me to see an upper-end Category 3 or even Cat 4 if this rate of intensification continues. As others said, that's a beautiful microwave pass.

[Yellow Evan]

Unless I'm reading the f-deck wrong, TAFB only got a 3.5 at 00Z, which combined with SAB's 4.5, probably yielded the 65 kt in the preliminary best track and the 70 kt in the advisory.

Odd given

The initial intensity is raised to 70 kt based on various
satellite intensity estimates in the 65-75 kt range.

Where did the 65 come from then?

[SouthDadeFish]

Something to keep in mind is that Eugene is rapidly approaching a sharp drop-off in tropical cyclone heat potential (TCHP) values. Large TCHP values represent relatively deep layers of warm water, which are important for sustaining strong hurricanes. This is because the winds of mature hurricanes induce a large amount of mixing in the upper layer of the ocean. If the warm layer at the top of the ocean is too shallow, cooler waters are mixed to the surface, which limits the convection associated with the hurricane. This TCHP drop-off will likely limit further RI after about 12 h from now, I would say.

[1900hurricane]

Unless I'm reading the f-deck wrong, TAFB only got a 3.5 at 00Z, which combined with SAB's 4.5, probably yielded the 65 kt in the preliminary best track and the 70 kt in the advisory.

Odd given

The initial intensity is raised to 70 kt based on various
satellite intensity estimates in the 65-75 kt range.

Where did the 65 come from then?

I guess that was the trend? Here's the line in question.

EP, 05, 201707090000, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1410N, 11330W, , 2, 55, 2, 994, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, TAFB, EC, VI, 3, 3535 /////, , , GOES15, CSC, T,

[Yellow Evan]

Something to keep in mind is that Eugene is rapidly approaching a sharp drop-off in tropical cyclone heat potential (TCHP) values. Large TCHP values represent relatively deep layers of warm water, which are important for sustaining strong hurricanes. This is because the winds of mature hurricanes induce a large amount of mixing in the upper layer of the ocean. If the warm layer at the top of the ocean is too shallow, cooler waters are mixed to the surface, which limits the convection associated with the hurricane. This TCHP drop-off will likely limit further RI after about 12 h from now, I would say.

TCHP seems less of a problem in this basin for some reason than it is in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Generally for a system moving NW over the sharp SST gradient, once part of the storm is over sub-26C waters, rapid weakening begins. If the SHIPS output is correct regarding SST's, I'd say this has 18-24 hours left.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 JUL 2017 Time : 041538 UTC
Lat : 14:30:05 N Lon : 113:32:40 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.3 / 967.7mb/ 97.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.3 5.6 6.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -13.4C Cloud Region Temp : -68.6C

Scene Type : EYE