EPAC: EUGENE - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

EP, 95, 2017070600, , BEST, 0, 106N, 1045W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 90, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 008, SPAWNINVEST, ep782017 to ep952017,

[cycloneye]

SHIP gos to 65kts.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Jul 6 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms continue to gradually become better
organized in association with a broad area of low pressure located
several hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico. Environmental
conditions are expected to be favorable for additional development,
and this system is likely to become a tropical depression this
weekend while it moves generally westward to west-northwestward at
about 10 mph away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Brennan

[hurricanes1234]

Organising pretty fast! Let's see how much this one can take advantage of the good conditions around it.

[cycloneye]

Is a large system.

Loop:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[cycloneye]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP952017 07/06/17 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 27 35 48 60 65 68 65 59 54
V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 27 35 48 60 65 68 65 59 54
V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 21 22 24 28 34 41 43 40 36
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 3 4 3 4 4 0 3 6 4 7 8 12 10
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -2 -2 -2 0 -3 -6 -6 -2 1 0 0
SHEAR DIR 278 277 224 238 253 163 67 66 149 200 205 192 138
SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.0 26.3 23.7 23.2 24.1
POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 154 154 155 154 152 154 146 129 102 95 102
200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -53.1 -53.5 -53.1 -53.4 -53.0 -53.2 -52.6 -53.0
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 5 3 3 4
700-500 MB RH 79 79 79 77 76 73 72 72 72 65 56 47 46
MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 11 11 12 13 14 15 14 17 17 16 16
850 MB ENV VOR 5 14 16 25 24 29 15 9 -8 -1 18 31 39
200 MB DIV 70 64 55 62 60 55 57 56 24 3 1 -22 10
700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 -3 -2 -1 -3 -1 0 0 -5 -1 -4
LAND (KM) 821 840 875 943 1011 1146 1227 1124 934 685 710 909 1086
LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.5 11.7 11.7 11.7 11.5 11.3 12.4 14.8 17.8 19.8 20.3 19.4
LONG(DEG W) 105.8 106.8 107.8 108.9 110.1 111.9 112.8 112.6 112.4 113.7 116.6 119.7 121.1
STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 11 7 2 9 15 17 16 11 7
HEAT CONTENT 31 31 38 43 41 53 47 36 19 2 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 10.7

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 6. 14. 23. 30. 34. 35. 35. 33.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10. 10.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -6. -4. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 7. 10. 10. 8. 7.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 15. 28. 40. 45. 48. 45. 39. 35.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.2 105.8

** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952017 INVEST 07/06/17 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.86 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.85 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 36.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.34 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.50 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.55 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 28.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.86 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 4.4% 26.7% 15.6% 10.5% 4.6% 30.4% 41.2% 46.7%
Bayesian: 0.1% 6.6% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 1.4% 2.9% 1.5%
Consensus: 1.5% 11.1% 5.6% 3.6% 1.6% 10.6% 14.7% 16.1%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952017 INVEST 07/06/17 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[hurricanes1234]

Code red!!!

1. Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized since yesterday in association with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for additional development, and this system is likely to become a tropical depression during the next couple of days while it moves generally west-northwestward at about 10 mph away from the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

Shear will be very low.

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP952017 07/06/17 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 38 44 56 70 75 78 75 70 66 62
V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 38 44 56 70 75 78 75 70 66 62
V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 33 36 43 52 64 73 68 58 52 47
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 2 1 0 2 4 7 2 1 6 9 6 4 3
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -2 -3 -2 -3 -4 -2 -3 0 0 0 2
SHEAR DIR 295 110 320 9 360 35 21 240 224 198 197 181 117
SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 27.9 25.9 23.7 24.1 24.6 23.4
POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 155 154 152 152 156 145 125 101 102 107 96
200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.7
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 4 3 4 5 4
700-500 MB RH 79 79 78 78 76 75 75 70 64 55 50 52 54
MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 12 13 13 15 16 16 19 19 19 18 18
850 MB ENV VOR 13 16 23 23 29 28 20 9 15 28 38 11 -4
200 MB DIV 73 60 73 62 56 82 59 30 25 12 1 11 5
700-850 TADV -3 -3 -3 -2 -3 -4 -2 0 -3 -4 -4 -2 -1
LAND (KM) 887 948 1017 1103 1158 1149 989 796 612 722 945 975 815
LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.5 11.4 11.1 10.9 11.0 12.6 15.5 18.4 19.8 19.3 18.7 20.0
LONG(DEG W) 107.5 108.7 109.7 110.7 111.3 111.3 111.0 111.3 113.4 116.8 119.3 119.1 118.3
STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 8 4 4 12 16 19 15 7 5 9
HEAT CONTENT 35 43 42 44 50 50 40 16 1 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 16.9

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 6. 14. 21. 26. 29. 29. 29. 27.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. 11. 11. 11. 12.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 8. 11. 11. 10. 9. 7.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 13. 19. 31. 45. 50. 53. 50. 45. 41. 37.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.4 107.5

** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952017 INVEST 07/06/17 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.81 4.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.97 8.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 42.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.40 2.7
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.52 2.9
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 3.1
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.7
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.54 0.4
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 38.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.85 0.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.0 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.4 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 33% is 4.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 30.2% 24.7% 0.0% 0.0% 26.5% 32.6% 0.0%
Logistic: 7.1% 34.7% 22.5% 12.7% 5.2% 44.1% 58.5% 45.7%
Bayesian: 2.2% 23.5% 5.7% 1.4% 0.7% 6.4% 9.0% 6.8%
Consensus: 3.1% 29.5% 17.6% 4.7% 2.0% 25.7% 33.3% 17.5%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952017 INVEST 07/06/17 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Kingarabian]

I hope so. This will be a classic EPAC fish.

However Cycloneye, SHIPS shear forecasts have been inaccurate numerous times so far. We saw it with 94L, 94E, and other invests.

[cycloneye]

Kingarabian ,I can see this system potentially under very favorable enviroment bombing out and getting plenty of ACE units.But it has to develop much faster than what 94E didn't do as it will run into cooler waters and drier enviroment.

[Kingarabian]

Kingarabian ,I can see this system potentially under very favorable enviroment bombing out and getting plenty of ACE units.But it has to develop much faster than what 94E didn't do as it will run into cooler waters and drier enviroment.

Very good point. How fast it develops is very important. Stronger systems can create their own favorable environment and fend off shear.

[hurricanes1234]

So far it does look to be developing pretty fast. If it continues like it did today, I wouldn't be surprised to see a depression by tomorrow. Of course though if its progression slows, then ultimately it may not have enough time to strengthen to its full potential based on the favourable conditions around it.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Jul 6 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Satellite images indicate that showers and thunderstorms
associated with an area of low pressure located about 800 miles
south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula have
continued to gradually become better organized today. Conditions are
expected to be favorable for additional development, and this system
is likely to become a tropical depression during the next day or so
while it moves west-northwestward or northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Brown

[Kingarabian]

Oh yes, very nice:



Established outflow in all quads, and consolidating very nicely. If it keeps up it'll be a TD in 6 hours. Let's see if we can get the first MH of the EPAC hurricane season.

[cycloneye]

Let's watch the SHIP RI probabilities at 00z run.Below were the 18z ones.

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.0 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.4 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 33% is 4.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)

[Sciencerocks]

06/2345 UTC 11.4N 107.6W T1.0/1.0 95E -- East Pacific

Quite large and broad system to say the least and this will mean development will be slow for the next little while. What it needs is an nice burst of convection near the center and I expect that within the next 6-12 hours. Conditions appear to be highly favorable once that occurs for nice development.

[Ntxw]

It's doing quite well. Though large it wouldn't take long for it to consolidate given the way it is structured.

[cycloneye]

Up slightly from 30% to 33% on the 25kt RI.

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP952017 07/07/17 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 38 44 56 66 71 72 69 66 61 56
V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 38 44 56 66 71 72 69 66 61 56
V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 32 35 42 50 60 65 62 56 51 46
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 2 2 4 7 8 3 1 7 8 4 6 3 7
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -4 -4 -3 -6 -4 -6 -2 0 -2 -1 -4
SHEAR DIR 314 293 328 351 21 49 24 223 200 197 171 180 203
SST (C) 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 28.3 27.1 25.6 24.9 24.8 24.0 22.6
POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 154 153 153 155 148 136 120 111 106 102 89
200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -53.0 -53.6 -52.8 -53.2 -52.9 -53.2 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.8
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 3
700-500 MB RH 79 79 77 76 74 73 70 65 58 53 53 54 49
MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 13 13 14 15 16 17 19 19 19 18 18
850 MB ENV VOR 16 24 24 31 33 24 20 0 20 21 22 -6 12
200 MB DIV 66 65 65 69 77 65 41 7 16 30 10 -21 -15
700-850 TADV -3 -3 -3 -4 -4 -3 0 0 -2 -5 -2 -4 1
LAND (KM) 946 998 1039 1088 1105 1064 961 809 829 941 1006 929 880
LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.3 11.4 11.4 11.5 12.3 14.2 16.5 18.1 18.5 18.5 19.4 21.3
LONG(DEG W) 108.2 109.2 110.1 110.9 111.3 111.7 112.2 113.7 116.1 118.4 119.3 119.2 120.1
STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 6 3 7 12 14 13 9 1 8 11
HEAT CONTENT 38 43 42 46 49 43 25 5 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 19.6

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 6. 14. 21. 26. 28. 29. 29. 27.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 9. 10. 9. 9. 10. 10. 11.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 11. 10. 10. 8. 7.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 19. 31. 41. 46. 47. 44. 41. 36. 31.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.2 108.2

** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952017 INVEST 07/07/17 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.81 4.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.83 6.8
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 43.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.41 2.7
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.54 2.9
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 3.9
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.7
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.42 0.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 47.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.84 0.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 2.1 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.3 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 32% is 4.3 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 32.8% 24.2% 0.0% 0.0% 26.6% 32.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 16.3% 48.8% 35.1% 30.3% 19.8% 50.6% 74.8% 44.3%
Bayesian: 1.1% 22.8% 5.9% 2.0% 0.6% 5.2% 9.1% 2.2%
Consensus: 5.8% 34.8% 21.8% 10.8% 6.8% 27.5% 38.6% 15.5%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952017 INVEST 07/07/17 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[hurricanes1234]

90%!!

1. A well-defined low pressure system, located about 800 miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, is producing a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms. Associated shower activity continues to become better organized, and environmental conditions are conducive for a tropical depression to form on Friday while the low moves west-northwestward or northwestward at about 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Kingarabian]

GFS is deepening it further, and GFS Parallel makes this a major.