WPAC: Tropical Depression 93W

[mrbagyo]

A random invest popped up in the mid latitudes.
I'm not particurlarly enthused with this system due to it's location but I'll take it since WPAC continues to disappoint
It does have a developing broad LLCC though.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/93W/93W_floater.html

[1900hurricane]

Ahh, so they ended up tagging this area. I did mention this area a little bit in my weekend post. It has mid-latitude origins, but I don't think it will have time to make the full tropical transition. The RJAO 12Z sounding out of Chichijima nearby to this system already shows significant mid and upper level dry air working its way into the system. With more upstream, 93W will probably end up being decimated by it.

[1900hurricane]

It looks alright now, but that won't last long. Here's a loop from the 18Z GFS showing 700-400 mb relative humidity. Watch as dry air invades and completely destroys 93W.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

I thinking this may have a chance to reach TD or a TS.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

WWJP25 RJTD 130000
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 25N 142E NNE SLOWLY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 15N 111E
http://www.jma.go.jp/en/g3/


JTWC
93W INVEST 170713 0000 25.3N 142.1E WPAC 20 1007

[doomhaMwx]

JTWC now mentioning 93W, together with Invest 94W...

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
26.2N 142.2E, APPROXIMATELY 50 NM SOUTH OF CHICHI-JIMA, JAPAN.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-
EXPOSED, DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LOW-
LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED CENTER. A 130004Z METOP-A
89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD CENTER WITH
FORMATIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE
LLCC. A 130003Z ASCAT PARTIAL IMAGE SHOWS A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH
15 TO 20 KNOT GRADIENT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY AND 10 TO
15 KNOTS ELSEWHERE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM IWO-TO AND CHICHI-JIMA
INDICATE 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS WITH SLP 1006MB TO 1007.5MB AND, MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY, A -3.4MB 24-HOUR PRESSURE FALL AT CHICHI-JIMA (-2MB
AT IWO-TO). OVERALL, THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS COMPLEX BUT
FAVORABLE WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH AIDING IN POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND TWO UPPER-LEVEL LOWS (EAST AND WEST) ENHANCING OUTFLOW.
ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES OF 29C ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR AT THIS TIME IS DRY AIR
PRESENT OVER THE NORTHWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AS DEPICTED IN THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND THE CHICHI-JIMA (RJAO) SOUNDING,
WHICH SHOWS A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE ABOVE 500MB. DESPITE THE
SUBTROPICAL ORIGIN AND WEAK SUBTROPICAL INFLUENCES, THE SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE MAINLY TROPICAL IN NATURE AND IS POSITIONED BETWEEN
TWO NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGES. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
A SLOW NORTHWARD TRACK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT, HOWEVER, THE
MODELS GENERALLY STRUGGLE WITH THESE HYBRID SYSTEMS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

TXPQ21 KNES 130910
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (93W)

B. 13/0830Z

C. 26.3N

D. 141.7E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY CIRCULAR DEFINED CLOUD LINES AND
A CENTER LOCATED LESS THAN 1.25 DEG FROM A SMALL COLD OVERCAST MEASURING
LESS THAN 1.5 DEG. DT=1.0 MET=1.0 PT=1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...FISHER

[euro6208]

Won't be surprised if this was a TS now. Looks like one of those TS that crawls up the U.S east coast.

[euro6208]

[doomhaMwx]

It may look like a Tropical Storm on satellite imagery alone, but latest ASCAT pass (07/13 11:17z) shows a SubTropical system below storm strength...

[wxman57]

JMA, the official RSMC of the West Pacific, is still calling it a depression today. Looks borderline, but it does have a circulation.

[doomhaMwx]

It may look like a Tropical Storm on satellite imagery alone, but latest ASCAT pass (07/13 11:17z) shows a SubTropical system below storm strength...

Above is the Metop-A pass...
Here is the Metop-B pass near 12:10z...

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 25.8N 142.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 143.2E, APPROXIMATELY
385 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH REMAINING CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE EAST AND
NO LONGER WRAPPING IN. A 140448Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
CONFIRMS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL WITH LIMITED CONVECTION TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE DISTURBANCE. A 132343Z ASCAT PARTIAL PASS
SHOWS A VERY ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH PRIMARILY 10-20 KNOT WINDS
AROUND THE CENTER AND STRONGER WINDS LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST, BUT
NOT WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT DUE TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-20
KNOTS), BUT OFFSET BY GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM SSTS (26-28
C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST, BUT NO LONGER INDICATE
THAT IT WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
DISTURBANCE. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

[euro6208]

Could have been a Subtropical system at least. I know JTWC doesn't classifies those in this basin...

I wonder why...

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.0N 111.0E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

[senorpepr]

Still an active tropical depression...

WWJP25 RJTD 151200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 151200.
WARNING VALID 161200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW
SEA EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 35N 140E 42N 141E
47N 152E 55N 162E 60N 163E 60N 180E 37N 180E 32N 160E 36N 148E 32N
136E 34N 136E 35N 140E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 998 HPA AT 52N 161E ENE 20 KT.
LOW 1000 HPA AT 55N 171E NE 10 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1012 HPA AT 34N 146E NE 15 KT.
HIGH 1018 HPA AT 27N 137E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1012 HPA AT 54N 140E SE SLOWLY.
HIGH 1022 HPA AT 36N 161E ALMOST STATIONARY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 32N 106E TO 37N 121E 38N 128E 39N 136E.
REMARKS.
TROPICAL STORM 1704 TALAS (1704) 996 HPA AT 17.0N 111.1E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[senorpepr]

WWJP25 RJTD 151800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 151800.
WARNING VALID 161800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN BOHAI
YELLOW SEA EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 35N 140E 42N 141E
51N 157E 55N 162E 60N 163E 60N 180E 36N 180E 33N 160E 37N 150E 31N
136E 35N 137E 35N 140E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 998 HPA AT 53N 164E ENE 15 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1012 HPA AT 36N 147E NE 15 KT.
HIGH 1012 HPA AT 54N 140E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 27N 140E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 35N 161E ALMOST STATIONARY.
WARM FRONT FROM 53N 164E TO 53N 169E 51N 174E.
COLD FRONT FROM 53N 164E TO 50N 160E 48N 153E.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 29N 107E TO 34N 115E 37N 119E 38N 127E 40N 134E
40N 139E.
REMARKS.
TROPICAL STORM 1704 TALAS (1704) 996 HPA AT 17.7N 109.9E : SEE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=