WPAC: TALAS - Tropical Depression

[euro6208]

A bit stronger on the EURO run. 995 mb over Hainan Island and 991 mb over Vietnam in line with GFS and NAVGEM.

[Sciencerocks]

Looks much better then it did 12 hours ago and I'd estimate that it is probably around 40 knots. Agree?

[euro6208]

TPPN11 PGTW 150853

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94W (SE OF HAINAN)

B. 15/0830Z

C. 16.82N

D. 111.65E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.5/1.5 STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .30 WRAP YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. PT
AND MET ARE CURRENTLY UNAVAILABLE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


MARTINEZ

[1900hurricane]

Talas is looking like something right now. I imagine JTWC will classify it soon.

[euro6208]

The JMA has upgraded 94W into a Tropical Storm @ 06z, receiving the name "Talas"... (JTWC is still keeping this as an Invest area)...
http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/

Bleh...

[euro6208]

94W INVEST 170715 1200 17.2N 111.5E WPAC 30 1000

12Z came in at 30 knots... Maybe an upgrade?

[euro6208]

06W SIX 170715 0600 17.0N 111.8E WPAC 25 1004

06W is here.

[euro6208]

TPPN11 PGTW 151228

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94W (SE OF HAINAN)

B. 15/1200Z

C. 17.15N

D. 111.42E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T2.0/2.0 STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .35 WRAP YIELDS A DT OF 2.0. PT
AND MET ARE CURRENTLY UNAVAILABLE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
15/0754Z 17.07N 111.48E MMHS
15/0838Z 17.17N 111.50E SSMS
15/0951Z 17.22N 111.33E GPMI


MARTINEZ

[euro6208]

50 knot landfall...

[NotoSans]

Up to 40 kt from the JMA.

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 JUL 2017 Time : 134000 UTC
Lat : 17:18:48 N Lon : 111:10:25 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.0 /1001.2mb/ 30.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.0 2.0 2.0

Center Temp : -60.5C Cloud Region Temp : -54.9C

Scene Type : USER DEFINED INITIAL CLASSIFICATION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 39.6 degrees

****************************************************

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (TALAS)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 06W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 192 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. A 151018Z WINDSAT
37GHZ IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTH
QUADRANT OF A DEFINED CENTER WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING OVER THE NORTH
QUADRANT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION, WHICH IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE
WINDSAT IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND RJTD, AND IS CONSISTENT
WITH RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM XISHA ISLAND (59981), WHICH
REPORTED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 10-MINUTE WINDS OF 24 KNOTS AND SLP NEAR
998MB AT 15/09Z (STATION WAS LOCATED 40NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER AT THAT TIME). TD 06W IS TRACKING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 06W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. TD 06W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 50
KNOTS BY TAU 24 BUT PEAK INTENSITY COULD BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER PRIOR TO
THE SYSTEM MAKING LANDFALL OVER VIETNAM NEAR TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36,
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN OF VIETNAM.//
NNNN

[RL3AO]

It took until July 15th, but once again the WPac has more named storms than the Atlantic.

[Sciencerocks]

45 knots within my opinion...Very deep convection.

[Sciencerocks]

WTPN31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/150221ZJUL2017//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (TALAS) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 17.2N 111.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N 111.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 17.9N 109.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 18.4N 107.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 18.7N 105.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 19.2N 103.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 17.4N 111.0E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 192 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 7 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z AND 161500Z.
THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 150230).//
NNNN

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (TALAS)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 06W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 146 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY
DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 35
KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5 FROM BOTH PGTW AND RTJD. THE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS GENERALLY CONDUCIVE FOR CONTINUED
INTENSIFICATION. LOW NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS DISPLACING
THE DEEPEST CONVECTION TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC. EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW IS GOOD, BUT IS RESTRICTED TO THE NORTH DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF A TROPICAL UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL TO THE NORTHEAST
NEAR TAIWAN.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 06W JOGGED WESTWARD OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS BUT IS FORECAST
TO
CONTINUE A TRACK TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS SITUATED ACROSS
EASTERN CHINA. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, SO
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. GIVEN THE MORE
WESTWARD TRACK IN THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE LLCC SHOULD STAY FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH OF HAINAN ISLAND TO ENABLE STEADY INTENSIFICATION. TS 06W IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 50 KNOTS BY TAU 24 WITH LANDFALL
OVER VIETNAM SHORTLY THEREAFTER. AFTER TAU 24, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE RAPIDLY OVER LAND.//
NNNN

[mrbagyo]

[Sciencerocks]

Looks like a "southern eyewall" based on the microwave image. Between the deep convection and that I'd estimate this is probably around 50 knots.

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 JUL 2017 Time : 234000 UTC
Lat : 17:24:32 N Lon : 109:44:15 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 / 995.9mb/ 43.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.9 3.2 3.7

Center Temp : -80.6C Cloud Region Temp : -81.1C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 41.0 degrees

****************************************************

[doomhaMwx]

Sanya station in southernmost Hainan island recorded a wind speed of 43kph, gust of 115kph, and a Sea-Level Pressure near 992mb @ 00z(8am local time) as Talas passes just to the south...