WPAC: TALAS - Tropical Depression

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WPAC: TALAS - Tropical Depression

#1 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Jul 12, 2017 10:58 pm

Invest 94W has been designated in the South China Sea. With the SW monsoon picking up a little steam in this area, I'd say there is a medium chance that this is something that will eventually be classified. It's going to have to consolidate a very broad developing circulation though.

94W INVEST 170713 0000 14.0N 111.0E WPAC 15 NA


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Last edited by 1900hurricane on Sun Jul 16, 2017 3:25 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: WPAC: Invest 94W

#2 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Wed Jul 12, 2017 11:53 pm

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Re: WPAC: Invest 94W

#3 Postby doomhaMwx » Thu Jul 13, 2017 1:31 am

While 94W is located in a favorable environment to allow some organization, its very broad nature could be an inhibiting factor, as you mentioned...

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Re: WPAC: Invest 94W

#4 Postby doomhaMwx » Thu Jul 13, 2017 1:37 am

JTWC now mentioning 94W, together with Invest 93W...

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
15.0N 111.0E, APPROXIMATELY 350 NM SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY BROAD
CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION THROUGHOUT AND PERSISTENT
CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH OF THE DISTURBANCE. A 130243Z
METOP-B AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE
SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF THE DISTURBANCE. A 130242Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS
SHOWS AN ELONGATED AND SOMEWHAT ILL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 10-15
KNOT WINDS. THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF WEAK UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS) AND
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT ARE MIXED AS TO WHEN AND IF IT WILL
CONSOLIDATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.


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Re: WPAC: Invest 94W

#5 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jul 13, 2017 5:32 am

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Re: WPAC: Invest 94W

#6 Postby euro6208 » Thu Jul 13, 2017 6:12 am

GFS doesn't make this a TC. EURO and NAVGEM a TS.
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Re: WPAC: Invest 94W

#7 Postby euro6208 » Fri Jul 14, 2017 2:09 am

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Re: WPAC: Invest 94W

#8 Postby euro6208 » Fri Jul 14, 2017 2:10 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.0N 111.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 111.6E, APPROXIMATELY
420 NM SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 140221Z METOP-B AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A VERY
BROAD CIRCULATION WITH POCKETS OF FLARING CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE
AREA AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH. THE
DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A MOSTLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
DUE TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-20 KNOTS), BUT OFFSET BY
WEAK UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND VERY WARM SSTS (29-30 C). GLOBAL MODELS
ARE MOSTLY IN AGREEMENT THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH
BEFORE CURVING WEST NEAR HAINAN ISLAND. THE MODELS ARE SPLIT
REGARDING CONSOLIDATION OF THIS DISTURBANCE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
AS IT APPROACHES HAINAN ISLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 94W

#9 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Jul 14, 2017 6:54 am

Now a JMA TD.

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WWJP25 RJTD 140600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 140600.
WARNING VALID 150600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA
AT 29.8N 142.9E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTH 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN YELLOW
SEA EAST CHINA SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 35N 140E 41N 143E
46N 150E 53N 160E 60N 165E 60N 180E 35N 180E 31N 160E 31N 137E 35N
137E 35N 140E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1000 HPA AT 52N 164E NNE 10 KT.
LOW 1012 HPA AT 56N 180E ENE 10 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 16N 113E NW SLOWLY.
HIGH 1012 HPA AT 27N 131E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 35N 157E ALMOST STATIONARY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 40N 146E TO 42N 154E 41N 160E 42N 167E 39N
171E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 94W

#10 Postby wxman57 » Fri Jul 14, 2017 11:23 am

JMA doesn't appear to have any formal criteria for classifying a system into a depression. Any low pressure area seems to qualify, regardless of organization. They don't write advisories on depressions.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 94W

#11 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Jul 14, 2017 3:43 pm

Looks like there is a broad, monsoon depression type circulation currently associated with 94W.

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 94W

#12 Postby euro6208 » Fri Jul 14, 2017 6:17 pm

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 16.5N 111.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 112.3E, APPROXIMATELY
150 NM SOUTHEAST OF HAINAN, CHINA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 141130Z HIMAWARI-8I IR IMAGE SHOWED A BROAD MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH POCKETS OF FLARING CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, HOWEVER, A RECENT BULLSEYE ASCAT PASS
SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-
15 KNOTS), GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND VERY WARM SSTS (29-30 C). GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK NORTHWARD
BEFORE CURVING WESTWARD NEAR HAINAN ISLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. IN VIEW OF THE IMPROVED
ORGANIZATION AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 94W

#13 Postby euro6208 » Fri Jul 14, 2017 6:19 pm

TXPQ22 KNES 142100
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94W)

B. 14/2030Z

C. 16.8N

D. 112.3E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.0/S0.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED BY A SLIGHTLY MORE THAN TWO-TENTHS
BANDING STRUCTURE. THIS CONFERS A DT OF 1.0. THE MET IS 1.5 BASED ON
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE PT IS ALSO 1.5. THE FT IS
BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...GAETANO
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 94W

#14 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Jul 14, 2017 8:14 pm

JMA expecting 94W to intensify into a tropical storm by this time tomorrow.

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TD
Issued at 22:00 UTC, 14 July 2017

<Analysis at 21 UTC, 14 July>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N16°40' (16.7°)
E112°00' (112.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)

<Forecast for 21 UTC, 15 July>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N17°55' (17.9°)
E109°40' (109.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 94W

#15 Postby doomhaMwx » Fri Jul 14, 2017 11:09 pm

Also now the subject of a TCFA...

REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 111.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 112.2E, APPROXIMATELY 35 NM SOUTHWEST OF SANHU ISLAND.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.


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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 94W

#16 Postby euro6208 » Sat Jul 15, 2017 3:17 am

TPPN11 PGTW 150636

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94W (SE OF HAINAN)

B. 15/0600Z

C. 16.75N

D. 111.84E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.5/1.5 STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .30 WRAP YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. PT
AND MET ARE CURRENTLY UNAVAILABLE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


MARTINEZ
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 94W

#17 Postby euro6208 » Sat Jul 15, 2017 3:24 am

TXPQ22 KNES 150305
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94W)

B. 15/0230Z

C. 16.9N

D. 112.2E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY INTERMITTENT CONVECTION RESULTING
IN 2/10 BANDING. DT=1.0 MET=1.0 PT=1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...FISHER
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 94W

#18 Postby doomhaMwx » Sat Jul 15, 2017 4:25 am

The JMA has upgraded 94W into a Tropical Storm @ 06z, receiving the name "Talas"... (JTWC is still keeping this as an Invest area)...
http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 94W

#19 Postby euro6208 » Sat Jul 15, 2017 4:36 am

TXPQ22 KNES 150921
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94W)

B. 15/0830Z

C. 17.1N

D. 111.7E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY 3/10 BANDING ON A LOG-1O
SCALE. DT=1.0. MET=1.5. PT=1.5 FT IS BASED ON MET BECAUSE BANDING FEATURES
WERE NOT CLEAR CUT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...FISHER
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 94W

#20 Postby euro6208 » Sat Jul 15, 2017 4:39 am

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