EPAC: GREG - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

Models have been developing this for a good week now. Of course they've backed off once it's about to be declared an invest (similar to what they did with Eugene and Fernanda).

[Ntxw]

Is this the one models head generally NW or potential cross one behind it?

[cycloneye]

A broad low pressure system centered a few hundred miles southwest
of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing a large but disorganized
area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be somewhat conducive for gradual development, and a
tropical depression could form by early next week while the system
moves slowly toward the west-northwest at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS Para makes this quite strong:

[Yellow Evan]

Is this the one models head generally NW or potential cross one behind it?

One behind it.

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP972017 07/14/17 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 32 36 42 52 57 61 60 61 62 63
V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 32 36 42 52 57 61 60 61 62 63
V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 33 37 41 46 49 52 53 54 57
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 11 10 12 11 10 14 12 11 7 7 4 3 1
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -6 -4 -3 -3 -5 -4 -2 -2 -1 2 1 2
SHEAR DIR 11 359 345 355 355 344 359 354 340 333 320 5 252
SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.4 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.7
POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 160 161 162 161 160 156 154 153 153 153 153
200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -53.8
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
700-500 MB RH 70 68 65 63 60 62 60 61 65 67 69 69 68
MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 3 3 4 4 6 6 7 7 7 7 6
850 MB ENV VOR -17 -23 -33 -46 -53 -53 -54 -53 -40 -30 -28 -18 -9
200 MB DIV 57 70 60 42 40 32 16 2 10 -20 0 -17 14
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 1 0 2 1 5
LAND (KM) 364 363 374 401 426 499 580 676 745 777 790 790 809
LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.7 12.8 12.9 13.0 12.8 12.4 11.8 11.4 11.3 11.5 12.3 13.5
LONG(DEG W) 97.0 98.1 99.1 100.0 100.8 102.0 102.9 103.7 104.3 104.9 105.8 107.3 109.5
STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 9 8 7 5 5 4 3 3 7 10 13
HEAT CONTENT 19 20 22 25 29 36 39 40 38 37 33 30 17

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 503 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 8.4

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 6. 14. 22. 28. 32. 34. 35. 35.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. 2. 2. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 11. 17. 27. 32. 36. 35. 36. 37. 38.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.5 97.0

** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP972017 INVEST 07/14/17 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.87 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.46 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 23.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.22 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.46 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 61.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.82 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972017 INVEST 07/14/17 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP972017 07/15/17 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 33 37 45 53 59 61 59 58 55 55
V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 33 37 45 53 59 61 59 58 55 55
V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 32 34 39 43 46 49 50 49 48 46
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 7 11 12 10 10 17 13 12 10 14 16 18 16
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -4 -4 -3 -4 -3 -2 0 0 0 0 -2
SHEAR DIR 18 344 346 341 334 353 351 343 326 313 304 298 277
SST (C) 29.4 29.6 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.2
POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 163 162 161 158 154 153 151 151 151 152 147
200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.3 -53.8 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -54.0 -53.6 -53.7 -53.4
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4
TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 8 9 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 8
700-500 MB RH 67 65 64 61 62 63 62 65 65 70 70 73 68
MODEL VTX (KT) 4 3 4 4 4 6 7 8 8 8 8 7 7
850 MB ENV VOR -19 -31 -46 -50 -45 -48 -49 -45 -37 -28 -21 -11 -12
200 MB DIV 58 51 35 36 36 37 26 23 1 -23 -18 -6 14
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 3 2 6
LAND (KM) 319 316 339 358 394 479 560 667 740 786 801 809 878
LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.4 13.6 13.8 13.8 13.6 13.2 12.5 12.1 12.0 12.5 13.5 14.8
LONG(DEG W) 98.1 99.2 100.2 101.1 101.9 103.3 104.4 105.3 106.0 106.7 107.8 109.5 111.7
STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 9 8 7 6 6 5 3 5 7 12 13
HEAT CONTENT 22 23 27 30 31 30 35 39 33 30 28 17 10

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 8.9

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 6. 14. 22. 28. 32. 33. 35. 34.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 3. 3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 12. 20. 28. 34. 36. 34. 33. 30. 30.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.1 98.1

** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP972017 INVEST 07/15/17 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.88 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.51 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 26.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.25 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.40 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.50 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 71.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.81 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972017 INVEST 07/15/17 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Ntxw]

So conditions here look basically similar to Fernanda's. 28C+ and low shear.

[Kingarabian]

It's still early but the models right now say a Eugene type track. By the time it becomes a hurricane, the waters should be warming up again after the possible upwelling.

[Hurricane Andrew]

That 999% chance of RI tho...

[Sciencerocks]

Convection increasing ontop of the "vort"/MLC. This system has a very good chance at being upgraded within its future within my opinion.

[Yellow Evan]

A broad low pressure system centered a few hundred miles southwest
of the Gulf of Tehuantepec continues to produce disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
somewhat conducive for gradual development during the next few days,
and a tropical depression could form by early next week while the
system moves slowly toward the west-northwest at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP972017 07/15/17 06 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 42 48 54 56 55 54 55 56
V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 42 48 54 56 55 54 55 56
V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 31 34 36 38 40 40 39 39
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 12 13 12 14 18 13 12 11 10 12 14 10 11
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -3 -3 -4 -2 0 0 0 1 0 5 3
SHEAR DIR 338 340 330 330 347 351 344 341 326 313 323 332 302
SST (C) 29.6 29.8 29.9 29.7 29.5 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.4
POT. INT. (KT) 161 163 164 161 159 153 153 152 151 151 153 154 149
200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.2
TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 7
700-500 MB RH 64 64 63 64 64 63 63 62 64 67 69 71 70
MODEL VTX (KT) 3 3 4 4 3 6 5 6 6 5 4 4 4
850 MB ENV VOR -33 -43 -44 -40 -37 -40 -46 -43 -43 -34 -34 -36 -30
200 MB DIV 43 13 24 35 34 44 30 23 6 5 -16 11 -28
700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -2 -2 0 0 1 1 4 2 2 4
LAND (KM) 252 245 258 298 350 458 591 717 820 915 986 1080 1213
LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.4 14.7 14.7 14.6 14.1 13.3 12.6 12.1 11.8 11.9 12.2 12.7
LONG(DEG W) 98.9 99.9 100.9 101.8 102.7 104.2 105.4 106.5 107.5 108.6 110.0 111.8 114.1
STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 9 8 7 7 5 6 5 8 10 12
HEAT CONTENT 25 32 33 30 27 26 37 31 28 28 28 32 19

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 689 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 6.2

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -0. 6. 14. 22. 28. 31. 33. 34. 34.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 17. 23. 29. 31. 30. 29. 30. 31.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.9 98.9

** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP972017 INVEST 07/15/17 06 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.89 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.29 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 29.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.28 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.33 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 3.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.95 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.53 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 73.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.81 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%
Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972017 INVEST 07/15/17 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[cycloneye]

A broad low pressure system centered a couple of hundred miles
south of Acapulco, Mexico continues to produce disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
somewhat conducive for gradual development during the next few days,
and a tropical depression could form by early next week while the
system moves slowly toward the west-northwest at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

[Kingarabian]

Pretty good EPS support.

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Jul 15 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Fernanda, located well to the southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula.

Shower activity associated with a broad low pressure system centered
a couple of hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico has become a
little better organized over the past 24 hours. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be somewhat conducive for gradual
development during the next few days, and a tropical depression
could form by early next week while the system moves slowly toward
the west-northwest at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[gatorcane]

Parallel GFS showing a more intense system again. Looking at the op GFS and Euro, they do not show anything as strong. Overintensifying systems is a flaw of the parallel GFS in my opinion.

[Kingarabian]

Parallel GFS showing a more intense system again. Looking at the op GFS and Euro, they do not show anything as strong. Overintensifying systems is a flaw of the parallel GFS in my opinion.

The Euro showed it becoming strong a couple of days. Euro and GFS also completely dropped Fernanda and it's a major hurricane.