EPAC: GREG - Post-Tropical

[RL3AO]

ATCF Best Track
System ID: EP97
0000 UTC Jul 16, 2017
Location: 14.0°N, 101.3°N
Central Pressure: 1009 mb
Maximum Winds (1-min): 25 kt (29 mph)
Type: Disturbance (DB)

[Sciencerocks]

Shower activity associated with a broad low pressure system centered
a couple of hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico, has changed
little. Environmental conditions are forecast to be somewhat
conducive for gradual development during the next few days, and a
tropical depression could form by early next week while the system
moves slowly toward the west-northwest at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[RL3AO]

ATCF Best Track
System ID: EP97 (INVEST)
1200 UTC Jul 16, 2017
Location: 14.1°N, 102.9°N
Central Pressure: 1009 mb
Maximum Winds (1-min): 25 kt (29 mph)
Type: Disturbance (DB)

A nice burst of convection last night.

[Yellow Evan]

Not sure if there's anything going on that the surface- latest burst seems MLC induced.

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP972017 07/16/17 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 29 33 36 39 40 38 38 36 35
V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 29 33 36 39 40 38 38 36 35
V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 17
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 15 17 19 18 14 14 13 12 13 16 18 26 31
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 0 2 0 -2 1 2 4 3 3 3 2
SHEAR DIR 323 308 319 327 321 310 302 301 302 303 264 245 229
SST (C) 29.5 29.3 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.2 28.1 28.1 27.3 26.7
POT. INT. (KT) 159 157 152 151 150 150 151 150 146 146 146 139 132
200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.8 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.5 -53.9 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6
700-500 MB RH 67 66 66 68 69 66 69 66 69 67 70 69 68
MODEL VTX (KT) 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -46 -44 -40 -47 -42 -41 -28 -12 -3 -9 -9 -5 3
200 MB DIV 16 16 21 33 45 38 3 9 -5 -13 -4 7 1
700-850 TADV -1 -2 -2 -2 1 0 3 2 2 1 2 5 8
LAND (KM) 409 433 463 513 572 679 792 923 1055 1127 1255 1353 1478
LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.2 14.2 14.1 14.0 13.9 13.7 13.7 13.9 14.2 14.6 15.6 16.6
LONG(DEG W) 102.9 103.7 104.6 105.4 106.3 107.9 109.5 111.3 113.2 115.5 118.1 120.8 123.5
STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 12 13 14 14
HEAT CONTENT 27 24 24 27 31 29 32 42 14 19 15 7 3

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.9

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 6. 14. 21. 27. 30. 32. 33. 32.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. -13.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -0. -0. -0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 11. 14. 15. 13. 13. 11. 10.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.1 102.9

** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP972017 INVEST 07/16/17 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.81 1.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.13 0.4
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 26.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.25 0.6
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.31 0.6
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.34 0.7
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.79 0.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 64.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.82 0.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.4 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.5 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 6.7% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.9% 9.3% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.4% 1.6%
Bayesian: 0.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3%
Consensus: 0.1% 2.8% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% 2.8% 3.3% 0.6%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972017 INVEST 07/16/17 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[cycloneye]

Satellite images indicate that the low pressure area located about
200 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, has become a little
better defined today. In addition, the associated showers and
thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization. Although
upper-level winds are not particularly conducive for additional
development, this system is still likely to become a tropical
depression during the next couple of days while it moves slowly
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[RL3AO]

ATCF Best Track
System ID: EP97 (INVEST)
1800 UTC Jul 16, 2017
Location: 14.1°N, 103.6°N
Central Pressure: 1009 mb
Maximum Winds (1-min): 25 kt (29 mph)
Type: Disturbance (DB)

[Yellow Evan]

16/1745 UTC 14.4N 104.0W T1.0/1.0 97E -- East Pacific

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP972017 07/16/17 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 30 33 37 38 39 40 39 39 37
V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 30 33 37 38 39 40 39 39 37
V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 24 23 23 22 22 21 20 18
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 15 17 19 16 15 17 13 12 14 11 14 21 27
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 0 0 -3 -1 0 1 1 2 2 -2 0
SHEAR DIR 308 315 328 325 317 316 306 310 313 302 254 232 223
SST (C) 29.3 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.0 26.0
POT. INT. (KT) 157 153 151 149 149 149 150 150 145 146 146 135 125
200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 0.1 0.4 0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.5
TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5
700-500 MB RH 67 68 70 71 70 69 70 69 69 69 70 69 65
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 5
850 MB ENV VOR -46 -40 -46 -42 -43 -30 -18 -2 0 -3 -9 -4 1
200 MB DIV 18 27 37 35 34 34 12 -15 1 1 21 23 11
700-850 TADV -1 -2 -2 1 1 0 3 2 4 2 3 8 6
LAND (KM) 441 465 508 552 602 710 805 923 1048 1103 1214 1331 1463
LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.0 13.8 13.7 13.8 14.0 14.5 15.2 16.1 17.3
LONG(DEG W) 103.6 104.4 105.3 106.1 106.8 108.3 109.7 111.4 113.3 115.6 118.2 121.1 123.9
STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 7 7 7 7 9 10 12 14 14 15
HEAT CONTENT 25 25 27 30 30 31 32 39 14 19 18 4 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.1

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 7. 14. 21. 27. 30. 32. 33. 32.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. -13.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 13. 14. 15. 14. 14. 12.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.1 103.6

** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP972017 INVEST 07/16/17 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.5
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.79 2.3
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.15 0.6
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 27.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.26 0.8
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2
D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.33 0.9
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 1.4
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.8
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.76 0.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 58.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.83 0.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.7 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.7 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.3% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 8.8% 9.9% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.5% 1.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 1.9%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2%
Consensus: 0.2% 4.2% 2.6% 0.2% 0.1% 3.1% 3.5% 0.7%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972017 INVEST 07/16/17 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 350 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico, continue to
show signs of organization. Upper-level winds are moderately
conducive for further development, and this system will likely
become a tropical depression during the next day or two while it
moves west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

Looks like it is being sheared,

[cycloneye]

Tropical Depression Seven-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072017
1000 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017

Recent satellite data indicate that the area of low pressure located
several hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico, has acquired a
well-defined center and the associated deep convection is
sufficiently organized for the system to be classified as a tropical
depression. This marks the formation of the seventh cyclone of the
eastern Pacific hurricane season. The system is sheared with the
center located near the northwestern edge of the primary convective
mass. Earlier ASCAT data revealed believable 25-30 kt winds, and
the initial intensity is set to 30 kt. The environment ahead of
the cyclone is not ideal for significant strengthening. Moderate to
strong northwesterly shear is expected to continue for another 24
hours, but is then forecast to lessen late Tuesday when the system
is located in a col area between two large upper level lows.
The shear is expected to become quite strong by day 4 when the
cyclone approaches the westernmost upper low/trough. This shear,
along with cooler waters, should cause weakening late in the period.

The somewhat uncertain initial motion estimate is 280/5 kt. The
depression is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward to the
south of a mid-level ridge located over northern Mexico and the
western United States. The track guidance is in relatively good
agreement through 72 hours, but there is significant spread after
that time, due to possible interaction with a disturbance currently
located about 750 n mi west of the depression. The ECMWF takes the
depression on a more northward track around the northern portion of
the circulation of the western system, while the GFS weakens the
depression and shows it merging with the second disturbance. Given
the large spread in the guidance, the NHC foreast lies near the TVCN
multi-model consensus and the HFIP corrected consensus at days 4 and
5, and is of low confidence.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 14.1N 105.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 14.4N 106.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 14.8N 107.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 19/0000Z 15.2N 109.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 19/1200Z 15.7N 111.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 20/1200Z 16.8N 116.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 21/1200Z 17.1N 121.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 22/1200Z 17.0N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

[WeatherGuesser]

Isn't this like the second or third time there's been more than one active here while ATL and WPAC have had trouble keeping one going?

[Ntxw]

Isn't this like the second or third time there's been more than one active here while ATL and WPAC have had trouble keeping one going?

Its been that way since late June.

This one has been fighting some shear. Looks decent structurally below.

[Sciencerocks]

Now this is what exposed looks like.

[Sciencerocks]

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 172034
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Seven-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072017
300 PM MDT Mon Jul 17 2017

Although there has been some increase in the overall amount of deep
convection associated with the system, the center has become a
little more separated from the primary convective mass due to
moderate to strong northwesterly shear. Satellite intensity
estimates from both TAFB and SAB support maintaining an intensity of
30 kt for this advisory. The moderate to strong shear is expected
to decrease within the next 12 to 24 hours, which should provide an
opportunity for some strengthening. The latest global model
guidance suggests that the shear could become quite low in 36 to 48
hours, which could result in some additional intensification.
However, the NHC forecast remains a little more conservative since
the cyclone must survive its current encounter with the shear to
take advantage of the potentially more favorable environment in a
couple of days. In about 72 hours, southwesterly shear is foreast
to increase as the cyclone begins moving over cooler waters. These
environmental factors should cause weakening later in the period and
the NHC forecast calls for the system to become a remnant low by day
5.

The initial motion is 275/7 kt, a little faster than before. The
overall forecast track reasoning is unchanged from the previous
advisory. The depression is expected to move westward to west-
northwestward to the south of a mid-level ridge that extends
westward from northern Mexico. The track guidance has come into a
little better agreement at 72 h and beyond, with the latest ECMWF
and GFS runs converging toward the previous NHC track. The updated
NHC forecast is similar to the previous one and once again is close
to the HFIP corrected consensus model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 14.1N 106.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 14.3N 107.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 14.6N 108.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 15.0N 110.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 15.5N 112.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 16.4N 117.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 21/1800Z 17.0N 122.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 22/1800Z 17.0N 127.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown



Quick Lin

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* SEVEN EP072017 07/17/17 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 35 37 40 45 46 46 43 42 41
V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 35 37 40 45 46 46 43 42 41
V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 31 31 31 31 32 32 32 30 28 25
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 13 14 14 12 10 10 5 1 9 10 20 21 22
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 0 0 -1 0 -1 0 2 0 -1 -4 0
SHEAR DIR 321 326 339 325 320 322 309 138 240 205 210 228 264
SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.2 27.1 27.0 27.1 26.8 26.8 26.5 26.3
POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 153 152 152 147 135 135 136 133 132 128 126
200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.0 -0.4 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 7 8 8 7 6 6 5 6 5
700-500 MB RH 68 66 68 71 70 69 70 69 69 67 63 61 56
MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 9 9 8 8 8 7 6 5 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -39 -32 -27 -16 -7 5 6 7 15 22 21 22 8
200 MB DIV 20 22 22 21 33 11 3 3 46 14 5 18 19
700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 3 2 0 3 3 6 4 9 9 8
LAND (KM) 539 564 595 616 642 765 845 913 1066 1208 1415 1597 1715
LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.2 14.3 14.6 14.8 15.2 15.8 16.3 16.7 16.9 16.8 16.7 16.7
LONG(DEG W) 105.7 106.4 107.1 107.9 108.7 110.7 112.9 115.2 117.8 120.3 122.9 125.0 126.6
STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 8 9 10 11 12 13 12 11 9 8
HEAT CONTENT 31 30 28 26 23 17 9 5 11 3 1 2 4

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.9

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 18. 23. 25. 26. 27. 26.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10.
PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 15. 16. 16. 13. 12. 11.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.0 105.7

** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072017 SEVEN 07/17/17 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.75 2.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.34 1.7
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 27.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.26 1.0
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.8
D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.30 1.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 1.7
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.37 0.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 79.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.80 0.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.4 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 0.9 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 5.5%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 13.4% 10.2% 7.9% 0.0% 12.1% 12.3% 9.9%
Logistic: 0.3% 1.1% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 1.6% 3.0% 5.1%
Bayesian: 0.0% 2.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.9% 0.6%
Consensus: 1.1% 5.5% 3.6% 2.8% 0.0% 4.6% 5.4% 5.2%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072017 SEVEN 07/17/17 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Yellow Evan]

Good call.

17/2345 UTC 14.2N 106.3W T2.5/2.5 07E -- East Pacific

[RL3AO]

ATCF Best Track
System ID: EP07 (SEVEN)
0000 UTC Jul 18, 2017
Location: 14.2°N, 106.5°N
Central Pressure: 1007 mb
Maximum Winds (1-min): 30 kt (34 mph)
Type: Tropical Depression (TD)

[Sciencerocks]

Strong shear