ATL: DON - Remnants - Discussion

[Kingarabian]

[Kingarabian]

SHIPS is bullish

[Sciencerocks]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 160552
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A low pressure trough over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although this
system is close to dry air, some slow development is possible over
the next few days while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the disturbance Monday afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[PTrackerLA]

Wouldn't be surprised to squeak out a weak TS from this, but doesn't look like it has a chance once in the Caribbean. Is this the same wave the GFS was all over days ago?

[AxaltaRacing24]

Wouldn't be surprised to squeak out a weak TS from this, but doesn't look like it has a chance once in the Caribbean. Is this the same wave the GFS was all over days ago?

No. This wave is behind the GFS one from a week ago.

[AtlanticWind]

Looks pretty good right now ,a lot of convection. I think it could slip a little further north than the models are showing
if it develops.

[Hammy]

NHC must be as bored as we are because this seems to have zero model support.

[AtlanticWind]

NHC must be as bored as we are because this seems to have zero model support.

The GFS and it's ensembles have shown development on and off as have ukmet. CMC is developing it and
the NAVGEM also.

[abajan]

NHC must be as bored as we are because this seems to have zero model support.

It seems to have zero model support? Really?

[chaser1]

NHC must be as bored as we are because this seems to have zero model support.

It seems to have zero model support? Really?

C'Mon? Did someone go to Stewart on a dare to have this upgraded to an invest LOL? Where's the center of this system anyway? My guess is somewhere close to 4N !! Wonderful, here come the next generation of YouTuber Panic Videos "The Earth has Certainly Tilted" and "New Equator Discovered 8 Degree's Further South"

I agree with Hammy here; The latest model runs are out and none depict development of any systems in the Eastern Caribbean or east of the Lessor Antilles. NavGem does develop a small system at the end of its cycle (approx. 160-180 hrs.) in the Northwest Caribbean where a 1004 mb low appears to be slowly deepening and moving in a general NW motion. No other model supports this at this time. Oh well, nothing else to really watch or talk about....... (except that latest killer asteroid coming right at Earth )

[cycloneye]

06z GFS-Para more stronger than past runs.

[chaser1]

Well, I kind of take that back in terms of it being worth of an Invest tag. It really is an expansive envelope of low and mid level moisture and a cut off low to its north moving westward in tandem with the invest, appear at the moment to be flaring the wave up. Taking a closer look, I suppose an argument can be made that a broad area of low pressure might be closer to about 8N?? Still, with upper level conditions to its north and west, I think it would take a relative small system to once again come into the islands at a pretty far south latitude, to have the potential to develop and slip south of somewhat more hostile conditions. As an aside, there does seem to be a nice upper anticyclone over the Eastern Caribbean so "if" something were to develop and survive the next 4 days, then perhaps the longer term upper level conditions might become more favorable. Even if this attempts a serious run at becoming a depression before either land interaction or disruptive conditions, one would have to acknowledge a tip of the hat to the NHC for their raised eyebrow - in spite of the lack of model support.

[Nimbus]

I heard Telstar 1 was somehow reactivated by aliens and the NHC received a mysterious message from the future.

Or maybe they just enjoy their work and this is the wave of the week.

[SFLcane]

Woah another aew with potential to develop in July. This could be some season in a few weeks folks enjoy the slow time.

[chaser1]

GFS Para 850mb definitely does show increased vorticity. On the surface, it is also depicting lower pressures with this as well. Still not quite deep enough to suggest a depression though? Interesting how the Ships and other intensity models are all so bullish on development - all by 48 hr's too!

[TheStormExpert]

When isn't SHIPS bullish on development?

[Alyono]

why are we even looking at SHIPS or LGE? Is this a depression now?

[RL3AO]

Woah another aew with potential to develop in July. This could be some season in a few weeks folks enjoy the slow time.

Nah. Watch this one develop into a TS but have people on here say "another storm that gets sheared in the Caribbean! It's way to hostile for any hurricanes this year!"

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A low pressure trough located about 1000 miles east-southeast of
of the Windward Islands is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Although this system is close to dry air, some
slow development is possible over the next few days while the
system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph. An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
disturbance Monday afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[Weather150]