ATL: DON - Remnants - Discussion

[weathaguyry]

Is recon flying this afternoon?

[Aric Dunn]

its still DON per NHC recon probably left for other reason.. hopefully they tell us in discussion

[weathaguyry]

40mph and 1011mb at 11AM from the NHC

[Aric Dunn]

Does not mention why recon left. they never sampled the west or SW side. if they trully wanted to know if it had opened up to a wave they would have kept the first plane out there for the duration not send another plane later. That is a waste.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Don Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052017
1100 AM AST Tue Jul 18 2017

Reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft
indicate that the tropical storm has weakened this morning. The
highest flight-level and SFMR observations support an intensity of
30-35 kt and the data also show that the circulation has become
less defined and in fact it may lack a closed surface circulation.
Advisories are being maintained for now pending another
reconnaissance aircraft mission later today.

Increasing westerly shear and dry mid-level air are likely to
continue to weaken the tropical cyclone as it moves through the
Windward Islands and the eastern Caribbean during the next day or
so. The NHC forecast calls for Don to weaken to a tropical
depression in about 24 hours and degenerate into a an open wave
within 36 hours. This could occur much sooner than indicated below.

The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged. Don should continue
to move quickly westward within the strong trade wind flow until
dissipation occurs. The NHC track forecast is similar to the
previous advisory and is near the model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 11.5N 58.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 11.7N 60.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 12.0N 65.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

[tarheelprogrammer]

Another weak, short lived TC bites the dust.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Suppose the name "Don" will continue to be used for incredibly short lived tropical storms.

[weathaguyry]

What time does recon go out this afternoon?

[ScottNAtlanta]

Suppose the name "Don" will continue to be used for incredibly short lived tropical storms.

We will see if the "bad" Emily trend continues this season. This is the cycle she makes that retirement run (poor thing shes tried to retire for 18 years now )

[Alyono]

Suppose the name "Don" will continue to be used for incredibly short lived tropical storms.

We will see if the "bad" Emily trend continues this season. This is the cycle she makes that retirement run (poor thing shes tried to retire for 18 years now )

more like 30 years. Could no even get retired after approaching Hispaniola as a strong cat 3

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.5N 58.7W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SSE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM ESE OF GRENADA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES

[HurricaneBrain]

I can't be the only one pulling for Don to stay alive just until Hilary forms in the EPac

[Aric Dunn]

There we have west winds. the other observation on the island has not updated in a long time. Two reporting stations showing west winds.

[ROCK]

doesn't look healthy and understand why the models never picked up on it. Peaked yesterday....next

[ROCK]

NAVGEM blows it up into the SGOM...eh its the NAV...

[wxman57]

There we have west winds. the other observation on the island has not updated in a long time. Two reporting stations showing west winds.

https://image.ibb.co/bN1L9k/596e56af_ad2_4d.png

Those west winds are too far away to be considered within Don's circulation. They could be driven by local effects (sea breeze). Don is clearly an open wave now, as the NHC alluded to in their discussion. They didn't want to "call it" until another recon checked it out later today.

However, Bones is ready to call it now...

[Aric Dunn]

There we have west winds. the other observation on the island has not updated in a long time. Two reporting stations showing west winds.

https://image.ibb.co/bN1L9k/596e56af_ad2_4d.png

Those west winds are too far away to be considered within Don's circulation. They could be driven by local effects (sea breeze). Don is clearly an open wave now, as the NHC alluded to in their discussion. They didn't want to "call it" until another recon checked it out later today.

However, Bones is ready to call it now...

[img]http://wxman57.com/images/itsdeadjim.jpg[/ig]

To far outside the circulation.. ? The likely location of the center assuming it is there is passing just to the north of Tobago it is plenty close enough to the radar site and to the observation site.... It is pretty sraight forward ..

http://barbadosweather.org/Composite/ki ... site=Sabre

[ROCK]

I have a t-storm to my south is bigger than this..lol with 60mph winds no less. I think the NHC was being generous.

[chaser1]

I can't be the only one pulling for Don to stay alive just until Hilary forms in the EPac

[chaser1]

From my own eyes, if there is a center than I think its further south than anyone is looking, probably to move SOUTH of Tobago and to pass directly over Trinidad