ATL: DON - Remnants - Discussion

[Hammy]

Euro has nothing. Doesn't even try to develop it.

EC has been a steaming turd pile though this year in genesis. Been missing the WPAC storms. Seems like it's back to its old ways of missing nearly everything

Are any of the models even worth anything at this point pre-genesis?

[Alyono]

Euro has nothing. Doesn't even try to develop it.

EC has been a steaming turd pile though this year in genesis. Been missing the WPAC storms. Seems like it's back to its old ways of missing nearly everything

Are any of the models even worth anything at this point pre-genesis?

very much so. They can show where a center will form

[chaser1]

95L is beginning to take on a nice shape. Sometimes its easy to lose sight how some of these very small and tight systems are very easy to be gleaned over by the broader scale global models. Another point to keep in mind is that these small systems have the capacity to spin up quicker (as well as spin down under adverse conditions). I'm a bit in awe at the though that we could potentially have two more named systems in the Atlantic prior to Aug. I think that those who are a bit more inclined to measure the short term outcome by suggesting that any quick development is irrelevant just because the system may quickly meet its demise, is missing the point. I believe that this could speaks volume to what we might expect when climatologist conditions are more apt to become a good deal more favorable than they are now.

[chaser1]

hope not telling us what islands can expect in aug could be wild ride if we see train hurr coming from far Atlantic hope high pressure dont build far west so could turn storms out to sea

You've got the right idea. We're plainly seeing a repetitive pattern condition. I think this will be a set up that will more or less play over and over. Maybe starting a bit more east with time but the Islands may very well be under the gun this year. 95L is such a small system, that depending on what time recon gets in there, but it wouldn't surprise me if it were to spin up to a 35 Knot T.S. in quick order.

[Airboy]

Blowing up a bit last couple of hours, must be a good chance this is a TD soon.

[Alyono]

does not appear to be a closed circulation

[Nimbus]

Per storm2k discussion last night the shear is from the east so moisture from 96l to be is keeping the dry air out. Small storms are more tolerant of dry environments anyways since the inflow is self moistened. Could well be at least a TD today and due to the proximity to the islands it would only take a west wind observation for an upgrade.

[Kingarabian]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/886798286564327426

[NDG]

I am really surprised this morning that the NHC went up in % for development. I agree with Alyono, it appears it does not have a closed surface circulation this morning.

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure located about 750 miles east of the Windward
Islands is moving westward at about 15 mph. The associated shower
and thunderstorm activity continues to show some signs of
organization, but the system appears to lack a well-defined center
at this time. Environmental conditions are conducive for some
additional development before the system reaches the Lesser Antilles
late Tuesday or early Wednesday. After that time, less favorable
upper-level winds are expected to hinder additional development.
Regardless of development, this system is expected to bring locally
heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions of the Lesser Antilles
beginning late Tuesday. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[Alyono]

the convective pattern is also less organized. I would not send the recon out today. I'd postpone until tomorrow morning

[wxman57]

Doesn't look like much, to me. Just a regular, old very low-latitude wave with little model support for development. Bret wanna-be... Don't see any reason why recon would want to investigate this.

[Aric Dunn]

Highly doubtful there is a circualtion there. lookin to the west of the convection the low level CU are moving west. It could be very localized. but either way it is highly unlikely to survive given that massive SAL that has begun over taking it.

[wxman57]

Here's a SAL map for 18Z today:

[Aric Dunn]

Here's a SAL map for 18Z today:

http://weather.graphics/nasa/2017071612 ... ntic_6.png

LOL next please.. maybe in month or so

[RL3AO]

Agree that recon isn't needed today. Has a decent chance to become a TD/weak TS in next few days.

[RL3AO]

ATCF Best Track
System ID: AL95 (INVEST)
1200 UTC Jul 17, 2017
Location: 10.4°N, 50.6°N
Central Pressure: 1011 mb
Maximum Winds (1-min): 25 kt (29 mph)
Type: Low Pressure (LO)

[GCANE]

Very likely a warm core is being built.
High rain rate in a nearly saturated mid level creates ideal setup for latent heating to create the warm core.

[Stormcenter]

Yawn.....nothing to be concerned about for now. IMO

[Alyono]

this is absolutely flying now. Could be into the islands by this time tomorrow morning. It is well west of where I thought it was a few hours ago