ATL: DON - Remnants - Discussion

[wxman57]

There's a little swirl at 10N/51W. Could be mid-level. Tiny system.

[Aric Dunn]

There's a little swirl at 10N/51W. Could be mid-level. Tiny system.

yeah looking at RGB loop its like not quite at the surface. Lower level cloud lines don't match up. the wave behind it is pulling the low level flow away from it.

though again it could be very localized. need more images.

[Aric Dunn]

next image may show another burst of convection over that swirl. cloud deck definitely thickened.

or its the suns reflections lol

[otowntiger]

this is absolutely flying now. Could be into the islands by this time tomorrow morning. It is well west of where I thought it was a few hours ago

which doesn't bode well for development, I wouldn't think, right? I know unless there are unique circumstances I've observed frequently in the past that rapidly moving storms seem to have trouble getting organized.

[gatorcane]

it is interesting that similar to Bret which had a 1933 analog around the same time, we see another system with another possible 1933 analog at the same time, though like Bret does not appear it will be as strong or as long-lived. That 1933 year was one of those hyperactive Atlantic hurricane seasons similar to 2005.

[GCANE]

Latest snap shot

[GCANE]

Latest COAMPS

[floridasun78]

could we see two td few days both look good to be td?

[cycloneye]

Recon is flying today.

Code: Select all

REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT MON 17 JULY 2017
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z JULY 2017
         TCPOD NUMBER.....17-047

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA (EAST OF WINDWARD ISLANDS)
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 74         FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 75
       A. 18/2330Z                   A. 19/1130Z
       B. AFXXX 0305A CYCLONE        B. AFXXX 0405A CYCLONE
       C. 18/2130Z                   C. 19/0930Z
       D. 11.5N 60.5W                D. 12.0N 64.5W
       E. 18/2300Z TO 19/0200Z       E. 19/1100Z TO 19/1400Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT           F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY...NEGATIVE.

[NDG]

Perhaps a small weak LLC, a little displaced from the MLC, the recon might find.

[floridasun78]

their going for it .alot in 95l forum saying wont fly

[abajan]

this is absolutely flying now. Could be into the islands by this time tomorrow morning. It is well west of where I thought it was a few hours ago

Seems like that acceleration happens so often as these systems approach the Lesser Antilles.

[cycloneye]

[MGC]

Difficult to determine if there is a surface circulation. Recon should provide that answer this afternoon. Its fast movement may prevent 95L from closing off a circulation at the surface though. Nice circulation at the mid levels.....MGC

[chaser1]

Looks like you guys pegged it about right; a tad disjointed N/W to S.E. (mid to low level) but considering its moving a a decent clip, is looking pretty good. Does appear that some new convection is beginning to pop a bit but its gonna need to really build up that convection and pull itself under - and soon, if its going to have a chance to really establish a more defined low level feature. Any increase in forward motion sure ain't helping the cause though. I don't think the system to its east is having as much impact with regard to inflow, to the extent that 95L's own quick forward motion might be having on itself. Actually, the disturbance to the east is not only looking fairly impressive but just noticed that the center seems to have established a nice low level swirl and is Northeast of where I had thought it was last night. The disturbance to the east is also not moving westward nearly as quickly as 95L is.

[chaser1]

Difficult to determine if there is a surface circulation. Recon should provide that answer this afternoon. Its fast movement may prevent 95L from closing off a circulation at the surface though. Nice circulation at the mid levels.....MGC

I'm inclined to guess that recon will get scrubbed for the mission but perhaps remain on standby for the following day.

[floridasun78]

Difficult to determine if there is a surface circulation. Recon should provide that answer this afternoon. Its fast movement may prevent 95L from closing off a circulation at the surface though. Nice circulation at the mid levels.....MGC

I'm inclined to guess that recon will get scrubbed for the mission but perhaps remain on standby for the following day.

still going out what i hearing

[Airboy]

Difficult to determine if there is a surface circulation. Recon should provide that answer this afternoon. Its fast movement may prevent 95L from closing off a circulation at the surface though. Nice circulation at the mid levels.....MGC

I'm inclined to guess that recon will get scrubbed for the mission but perhaps remain on standby for the following day.

still going out what i hearing

The mission have started and they are in the air

[chaser1]

Yawn.....nothing to be concerned about for now. IMO

Yeah, if I were a betting man I'd say that you guys in Texas might just skate by this one

[wxman57]

I'm not measuring any very fast west movement. I measured about 35nm in the past 3 hrs (12kts) and 85nm the past 6 hrs (14-15 kts). Not sure of that initial position at 0915Z, though, as it was a bit dark. ASCAT caught the eastern edge of it. Possibly a weak LLC with 10-15kt winds. May take a Bret track with less development potential.