ATL: DON - Remnants - Discussion

[Kingarabian]

I guess the global models were not that off with their surface reflection considering how high the pressures are.

[Aric Dunn]

That and the winds are so low. given the forward speed even a lot of open waves have higher trade winds than this right now.

[tropicwatch]

They are calling that the center with pressure of 1014mb, 11.23N 57.00W

[tropicwatch]

Convection building and expanding again with TS Don.

[Aric Dunn]

If it does not have a strong circulation by now. It is very unlikely it makes it even an hour in the eastern carrib speed zone.........

[wxman57]

Plane is about to pass through an area that might contain the center (if it still exists). Definitely the winds are down. No TS winds NE of the center, just 15-20 kts.

[Aric Dunn]

Next set from recon should tell us. this pass looks like the center might be a little farther west nearer the deeper convection but still weak winds though the wind field looks ok so far just have to wait and see if there is a west wind.

[NDG]

It looks to me that the coc is reforming further west. IMO.

[Aric Dunn]

Well if the center is still alive it made a huge westward reformation ... thats a pretty big jump to the convection if indeed its there still

[euro6208]

No dvorak above 2.5, i.e KNES, that I have seen so far and to believe it's a 45 knot system despite it's appearance?

That is why recon is so crucial. Sad for the other basins.

[NDG]

I guess I was wrong, it has opened up to a wave, per the recon.

Edit: unless the coc is still in the process of reforming.

[Aric Dunn]

Im not sure why they turned.. but the center indeed just west of the turning point from recon under the deep convection. pretty darn big reformation.

[Alyono]

this is a wave now. fairly sharp one though

good news is, winds likely won't be that strong with the wave passage

[GCANE]

Latest drop is showing some boundary-layer shear.
Air is saturated though.
Seeing a lot of popcorn Cu-Nims on Vis

[weathaguyry]

It would make sense if the center is reforming, since 1014mb with that kind of convection would be pretty crazy

[Ivanhater]

[Aric Dunn]

Recon is leaving. not sure why they did not sample the convection to the west very odd.

[Aric Dunn]

will be coming into radar range over the next few hours.

http://barbadosweather.org/Composite/ki ... 1500387802

[weathaguyry]

Very strange indeed that recon is leaving before sampling convection, maybe they were running low on fuel? It appears they found more TS winds right before they left

[Alyono]

they left because there is nothing to fly. They were supposed to be there for 6 hours